WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) – Oxford Economics has projected that former President Donald Trump could win Pennsylvania by 41,489 votes and Vice President Kamala Harris is projected to clinch Michigan by 23,948 votes and Wisconsin by 29,024 votes.
Among the three northern swing states, Pennsylvania is the biggest prize and the county election outcomes in the Keystone State are especially sensitive to changes in unemployment, Oxford Economics US Lead Economist Bernard Yaros said.
‘According to our models, higher joblessness, even if from extremely low levels, dings Harris’ support,’ Yaros said. ‘In 2016, rising unemployment, particularly in the bellwether county of Erie, hinted at trouble for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.’
Though Harris is projected to win Michigan, her margin of victory will be quite reduced from Biden’s in 2020, the economist said.
‘President Biden’s approval, which is highly correlated with Harris’, is a drag on her performance in the Wolverine State, according to our county models,’ Yaros said.
Oxford Economics’ projections showed that Harris is set to perform the best in Wisconsin. That said, it is worth noting that the Badger State has a penchant for producing nail-biting election outcomes, the economist pointed out.
Meanwhile, Oxford Economics’ county election projections are hardly affected by Harris’ selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
‘Vice-presidential candidates confer a small home-state advantage to the presidential ticket, and our models don’t assume Walz’s popularity in Minnesota will spill over into neighboring Wisconsin,’ Yaros added.
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