/ world today news/ It cannot be denied that our relations with Turkey are a topic that is often present in the media and is followed with attention by thinking Bulgarians. The reasons need no comment. Deep in the Bulgarian souls for centuries, there remains a painful feeling, the roots of which are intertwined since the time of the conquest of our lands for 500 years by the Ottomans and the destruction they left behind. Violence, death and slavery are better left unmentioned.
Today’s Turkey, however, is just a neighbor, albeit a large one, with which good-faith relations are more than mandatory. Because we know the saying that if the bear plays with the neighbor…or if his barn catches fire, the fire will spread to our yard. What is worrisome in this case is that a relevant policy with relevant interests, which have nothing to do with ours, is not consciously transferred to us. Or to export their own problems to our territory. Therefore, it is normal that what is happening in Erdoğan’s country is of interest and should be followed carefully if there is concern for the fate of the natives.
In Turkey itself, they say that this and the next year 2019 will be fateful, because the political winds bring elections that may turn out to be extraordinary, before the constitutionally set for the fall of 2019, if the rulers decide that this will ensure them another victory. 2018 is expected to be a politically tense year as parties hold their congresses, consider their presidential candidate, and seek support and allies. Turkish media claim that early elections are on the agenda, and for this reason all parties, in order not to be “caught unprepared”, have started making preparations “as if the elections were tomorrow”.
In Ankara, it is no coincidence that recently they often recall the words of the country’s 9th president, Demirel, who used to say that “yesterday was yesterday, and today is today” i.e. things are changing and fast. And also that “in politics, 24 hours is a long period”. Abdullah Gul, for example, was not only the president of Turkey, proposed by the ruling AKP for more than 15 years, but also an associate of Erdogan, co-creator of this party, “did important work with him” / in the words of PND leader Bahceli /, but these days in Ankara one of the most talked about topics is that it is Gul who may run for president, and this is causing turmoil within the ranks of his own party. Because the cold relations between Erdogan and Gül are not a secret for the political elite in Turkey. Especially when the media suggests that outside forces are behind such ambitions, which no one officially confirms, but does not deny either. It is only now that Erdoğan’s words from November 22, when he stated at a meeting with AKP members that “there are people within the party who believe they have the right to pretend they are sincere” are being analyzed. Just then, behind the scenes in Ankara were spreading rumors in connection with the Zarrab case in New York that “the US wants to remove Erdogan.” There was mention of a transition period model in which Gul would be president and the country’s economy would be placed in the hands of Ali Babacan. It is noteworthy that these days social networks in Turkey are flooded with published lists of Turkish personalities, which the businessman Reza Zarap provided to the New York court as evidence of corruption in the high levels of power in Ankara, of course, against a light sentence. First on the list is the Turkish president with a large amount of 430 million euros, but there are the names of former Prime Minister Davutoglu, Binali Yildirim (current Prime Minister), Ali Babacan, Erdogan Bayraktar, Mehmet Simsek, etc., all names of prominent politicians from the AKP and members of the executive. Fake news, “hybrid warfare” style manipulations or clearing accounts and terrain? Nothing is certain these days. The truth is that so far only the leader of the new “Good Party”, Meral Aksener, has officially announced that she will run for president on her own in the upcoming elections, whenever they are. Apparently, the election campaign is indeed underway and all means are allowed, external and internal. In this regard, if until yesterday the leader of the far-right nationalist party, PND, Bahceli allowed himself to accuse Erdogan with harsh words, and Erdogan, in turn, used no less harsh expressions towards Bahceli, today Bahceli “while the tea was being prepared “, states that “PND does not have a candidate for president, I will not run, if there is an ally, we will be with him, but if there is none, we will stand alone in the elections for deputies” i.e. in the parliamentary elections, which constitutionally are together with the presidential elections. “For the presidential elections, we will support Erdogan,” adds the PND leader, but assures that they will support him if he runs. “If there is a reason and he refuses to be a candidate, this is a matter that Erdogan will decide,” because “the PND is true to the spirit of what was started on August 7 by Yanikap, i.e. faithful to coalition agreements. He does not fail to emphasize that he has not held talks with Erdogan about an electoral coalition and hopes to have a meeting in the coming days, if desired. But if there are no negotiations, “PND will continue its efforts to fulfill the assumed responsibility.” These are hardly the words of an opposition leader, especially since the recall of old connections and coalitions since the time of the predecessor of the AKP “Refah Partisi” /Erbakan’s Prosperity Party/ from 1991 speaks of lasting long-term relations. Well, times are different and today Bahçeli orders extreme nationalists in the form of the famous “gray wolves” not to appear on the streets and not to use their famous “wolf sign” with their fingers. The slogans of “Turkey’s European path”, raised again in Ankara, do not allow the presence of “gray wolves”, but they are also voters, right? For him, it is essential to make legislative changes that allow the “falling of the barrage”, i.e. the reduction of the 10% barrier to entering the Mezhdlis /parliament/. The fact is that all parties, apart from the ruling AKP, are worried about this barrage, 10%. The main opposition NRP, Kemalists, with leader Kalachdaroolu, also supports a similar idea. As well as the pro-Kurdish DPN, represented in parliament, but on the edge of that 10%. It remains for the ruling AKP to calculate a profit if it initiates such a change to the electoral law. Thin calculations, but Erdogan has proven that he knows how to do them. That is probably why a number of Turkish observers (such as Abdul Kadir Alvi) are of the opinion that no matter how much “they try to replace Erdogan, he will fight back. Those who were making plans to remove Erdogan clearly do not know him. He did not bow to the coup attempt and now he is unlikely to say yes to new scenarios.” As they say, a sequel follows.
In such a situation, those analyzes that take into account what is happening in the Turkish economy should not be ignored by the neighbors. Because some professors like Ous Oyan, for example, are convinced that “an economy that depends on external factors is also open to external intervention.” The Turkish media has repeatedly written that “the efforts of the US to overthrow the governments in countries that have economic difficulties and the people are dissatisfied are a reason to raise the question of our economic policy”. Moreover, “countries like Turkey, which are not based on production, but on external loans and “warm money” open themselves to external interventions in the economy, and this is directly related to the security of the state.” The latest research, commissioned by the ruling AKP, shows that the population puts the economy as the number 1 issue for the country. And the other is that “financial circles from abroad increase the pressure on Turkey”, which is an additional factor for the unfavorable conditions in which the Turkish economy finds itself, which in turn increases the risk to the country’s security. This is precisely the reason why some of the governing circles insist on a transition to a production economy and to prepare a program for an independent economy, which currently does not exist in the AKP. “For 15 years, the Turkish economy has been developing with external indebtedness and it has reached the bottom,” say experienced economists. They do not hide that “those presented as mega-projects are projects that increase external dependence” and propose to immediately “move to an economic policy for the people, because an economy that does not produce has no future.” Sound familiar? Prof. Aziz Konukman even points out that “the continuation of neoliberal policies leads to the collapse of the economy and opens the way for the state’s natural resources to flow outside”. This is precisely the reason, according to him, for creating tension between the rulers and the people. “Populist policies can hide these facts for a while, but one day it will explode.” The conclusion is also in the direction of rejecting neoliberal policies and moving to a production economy. The budgets had to be “prepared with the understanding that Turkey is at risk, but newly adopted for 2018. budget does not provide the necessary economy and security for the state”. Food for thought on the subject, right?
There is no direct connection, but it is curious to recall that when announcing the sentence of the Turkish banker, Mehmet Hakan Atila, in the USA, which is for assisting in money laundering and violating the embargo against Iran through the Turkish Halkbank, the judge in the case says “foreign banks have a choice”. The explanation is that “they can help Iran or be part of the international banking community that works with dollars, but they cannot do it at the same time.” Therefore, not only sanctions, pressure and bans are imposed, not only arrests are made, but the consequences are more than serious for the relevant economy. And Erdoğan, in connection with this sentence, even declared that “this is a conspiracy against the government.”
And while we were left breathless at the sight of the restored Turkish church “St. Stefan” in Istanbul, while we are guessing how to perceive the words of Turkish President Erdogan and Prime Minister Yildirim at its opening, because they were signal, the Mejlis began to investigate the EU for Islamophobia. Something that Yıldırım defined in his speech before St. Stephen’s as “intolerance towards the Islamic religion, intolerance towards foreigners, negative emotions”, etc. Turkey is restoring a church, but what is Europe doing? It freezes our membership, tolerates terrorists like the PKK, fears Islamization, and countries like Germany, Austria, France, the Netherlands insist that Ankara has no place in Brussels. We, on the other hand, will make efforts to “warm EU-Turkey relations”, to “not turn the EU’s back on Turkey”, we will “work for an EU-Turkey meeting” and that in Sofia during our EU presidency, and somehow we miss that the Turkish politics has always, since Ottoman times, been multi-directional, multi-layered, behind-the-scenes and changeable according to the circumstances and in 24 hours /according to Demirel/, but without forgetting for a moment “Turkey above all”. There is noise coming from Ankara, but who and how it is read in our country is not clear. On the other hand, to our surprise, Albanians tore the Turkish flag, which builders from a Turkish company had raised above a newly built hydroelectric power plant near Reshen near the Aydiner dam. Albanians gathered to protest against the Turkish symbol, developed in a country that is considered Muslim and trampled on it, and in Tirana Erdogan laid the first stone for the construction of the largest mosque in the Balkans. In Albania, where Catholics are 10% and live mostly in the northern part of the country, the reactions are clearly in defense of statehood and against foreign influence, although expressed in this case through a national flag. They were interrogated, but against the background of announced protests by the opposition in Albania against the rule of Edi Rama and his party, somehow the efforts of the authorities did not lead to tension. What shall we say? People don’t even lift a finger lest their hand be bitten off. An old rule in the Balkans. Otherwise, congratulations on the presidency and the chosen path of good neighborliness. There is no other way, this is clear to everyone. As long as we know each other’s interests. And to be able to protect them.
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