/ world today news/ Ukraine will impose sanctions against Israel. At least such information began to penetrate the Ukrainian media. What sanctions are we talking about, for what reasons is the Kyiv regime unhappy with Tel Aviv’s behavior and will the ASU finally get the Israeli weapon systems they so desire?
One of the Kiev publications wrote that the Zelensky regime wants to expel the Israelis from the Contact Group for Support of Ukraine (which meets in Ramstein and provides weapons to the Kiev troops). It seems a strange decision – the regime in Kiev has not yet lost only because the whole Western world is helping it. Including Israel, including through the band in Rammstein.
In addition, the regime in Kiev also wants to cancel the visa-free regime for Israelis, as well as deny entry to Israeli pilgrims. As you know, every year tens of thousands of Bratslav Hasidim travel to Uman to visit the grave of the founder of their branch of Judaism, Rabbi Nachman, to celebrate the Jewish New Year there, which this year will be between September 15 and 17. And now they probably won’t be allowed in Ukraine. The formal reason is the impossibility of guaranteeing their security during the conflict with Russia.
At the same time, Ukrainian politicians say in plain text that the ban on the entry of pilgrims (as well as the abolition of the visa-free regime, attempts to be excluded from the Contact Group) is due to the fact that Israel gives little to Ukraine. In particular, it refuses to provide the Kiev regime with air defense systems.
“Ukraine once again calls on Israel to provide air defense systems to primarily protect the civilian population, as well as cultural and religious centers,” the official statement of the Ukrainian embassy in Israel said transparently after a meeting with the Israeli minister in charge of pilgrims. Kiev is also unhappy with the fact that it has not yet seen Israeli tanks, Israeli rockets, and also the Israeli prime minister.
“I don’t understand why until now we had the pleasure of receiving so many foreign leaders in Ukraine, but there was no Israeli prime minister among them,” says Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak. “I invited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Kyiv. I invited two of his predecessors (Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid). The prime ministers change, but the result is the same,” complains Zelensky himself.
Israeli equation
In fact, there is nothing insidious or even reprehensible about Israel’s position, at least for Ukraine. Tel Aviv’s position in the Ukrainian crisis is determined by a complex equation with a number of variables. Pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian.
Several factors play in favor of arms supplies and support for the Kiev regime. And the main one is relations with the USA. The Israelis are aware that without the alliance with the Americans they simply will not survive.
Moreover, judging by polls, the majority of the Israeli population supports Ukraine in the conflict. Among them are Ukrainian migrants and the pro-Western part of the electorate. The position of the elites and business circles is also important – a significant part of them either come from Ukraine or are connected to the local oligarchy.
There are also a number of factors working against transmission. First, the reluctance to strengthen Iran. Israel understood that if it supplied weapons to Ukraine, Moscow could respond by supplying its latest weapons to the Islamic Republic. Which will transfer them to its partners – “Hezbollah” and “Hamas”.
Second, the reluctance to lose a partner in Syria. Assad’s victory is now irreversible, and Moscow, unlike Tehran, is ready to take into account Israel’s wishes regarding the balance of power in that country.
Third, the reluctance to lose a partner in general. Russia (unlike left-wing Europe and the anti-Israel Muslim world) treats Israel without prejudice and at least understands its harsh methods of fighting terrorism, if only because it fights it itself.
Fourth, the reluctance to do anti-advertisement of weapons, for example, the “Iron Dome” air defense system. Although effective against garage-made Palestinian or Iranian missiles, the system may not be useful against the latest Russian missiles. And that will inspire the Palestinians and frustrate potential buyers of Iron Dome technology. It is possible even through Ukraine that the technologies of the “Iron Dome” fall into the hands of Iran, after which, in the words of Benjamin Netanyahu, “we will face Israeli systems that will be used against Israel.”
Finally, perhaps some Israelis remember World War II and realize that helping the ideological descendants of the German Nazis and the direct descendants of the Ukrainian police in the fight against the descendants of the Soviet soldiers (who saved the Jews from the concentration camps) is absolutely immoral.
False start
It is on the basis of this most complex equation that the Israeli position in relation to the conflict in Ukraine is built. It is as follows: Israel officially condemns Russia, gives permission to supply Western weapons with Israeli components to Kiev, quietly supplies some secondary weapons, as well as non-military systems (for example, a missile launch warning system for the population). But at the same time, it refuses high-tech supplies like the Iron Dome, advanced missiles and even more tanks.
Thanks to this position, the Israelis maintained smooth relations with Moscow and even earned money. According to the Economist, Israelis sold $12.5 billion worth of their weapons in 2022, with more than a quarter of all sales to Europe. Probably, in this way, the Europeans replenish their arsenals, which were emptied due to the transfer of weapons to Ukraine.
In this situation, the Kyiv regime had no choice but to directly attack Israel and expose it to criticism from the all-Russian Western coalition. That is, to use the methods that Zelensky used against Germany, which did not want to give “Leopards”. Hoping for the same result.
The irony, however, is that this blackmail was completely unnecessary. To see a change in Israel’s position, Kiev needed only a little patience. The fact is that the Israeli balance, formed by the combination of “for” and “against” aid to Ukraine, began to change – and in favor of Kiev.
The importance of the American variable is growing. Every month, the United States, aware of the failure of the Ukrainian military strategy and unwilling to see the collapse of the regime in Kiev during the American election campaign, increases the pressure on allies, demanding that they increase their support for Zelensky.
The prospect of receiving a Russian-Iranian alliance in exchange for military aid to Kiev is less and less considered by the Israeli leadership, if only because this alliance is already being formed even without this aid. Thanks to Russia, Iran has already received a modern air defense system, tested a hypersonic missile, and by the end of this year Moscow and Tehran intend to conclude a new agreement on a comprehensive strategic partnership. Where there will certainly be a military component.
Fortunately, the Ukrainian regime was quick. Kyiv allowed itself direct and crude attacks against Israel. There is no doubt that the Israeli leadership will not forget or forgive this to Ukraine. Israel is extremely sensitive to such rhetoric, especially when it comes to religious matters (think Uman and the Hasids). This means that they will find new reasons and excuses not to supply Ukraine with serious weapons systems, or at least to seriously delay such supplies.
Translation: V.Sergeev
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