/ world in the present day information/ Kazakhstan, inside the framework of the nationwide undertaking, started to construct fifty outposts on the border with pleasant Russia. And that is no accident.
Add to this the rising home Russophobia, Western affect – the query arises after we will get a brand new Ukraine on the southern borders. The Director of the Heart for Monitoring Eurasian Issues Aslan Rubaev informed Tsargrad what is occurring now in Kazakhstan and the way true our fears are.
– The state of affairs in Kazakhstan, which has the most important land border with us, is severely worrying. What’s Kassam-Jomart Tokaev doing there?
– President Tokaev is a Soviet man by training, however he inherited the clan system of the Nazarbayevs in all spheres and the wildest social stratification of society.
And to be able to distract folks from the prevailing injustice and clarify their poverty, the picture of the enemy is required. As in any post-Soviet republic.
To this point, Tokaev, to be able to keep away from sanctions, “sells” to the West home Russophobia, a rejection of the Soviet previous. He additionally repeatedly stated that Kazakhstan is for the territorial integrity of Ukraine and can by no means acknowledge Crimea as Russian.
Likewise, he “sells Russophobia” to China, which additionally doesn’t profit from strengthening Russia’s place in Kazakhstan. However on the identical time, the identical Tokaev doesn’t lower ties with us, helps with parallel imports and does every thing to point out that the CSTO is alive and functioning.
– How lengthy will the identical West conform to tolerate such a multi-vector Tokaev? Is not it simpler for him to place his puppet answerable for Kazakhstan?
– Final 12 months, the People appointed as ambassador to Kazakhstan Daniel Rosenblum, a specialist in coloration revolutions, who earlier than his appointment promised to “remove all dangerous elements in Kazakhstan”, understanding them because the affect of China and Russia.
He skillfully organized conflicts on the road, in a store, in transport between Russians and Kazakhs, presenting them as “on a regular basis”. On the identical time, along with his appointment, such conflicts elevated manifold!
It is very important perceive that any subsequent chief in Kazakhstan after the elections can not and won’t be pro-Russian – that is the place of the West. And what then to do the Russian inhabitants of Kazakhstan is a giant query.
– Data even appeared on the community that Kazakh Russophobes are making ready an assault on the Orthodox Church of Kazakhstan …
– I’m following this challenge and I believe that the vital level remains to be distant. Though there are issues. The Russians are nonetheless below critical stress, however I do not suppose that Kazakhstan will determine on any violent actions in opposition to the Church, as a result of it’s going to already be a battle of one other stage.
Then Kazakhstan will instantly flip from a detailed accomplice and ally within the CSTO into an unfriendly neighbor.
How will we reply to Kazakhstan?
When requested what leverage Russia has over Kazakhstan, Aslan Rubayev gave a number of examples:
– We will revise the settlement on the division of the Caspian Sea, giving Kazakhstan not equal to all, however an insignificantly small a part of the coast and the inside of the shelf.
We will ban the import of Kazakh merchandise, which will likely be greater than a painful blow. Or to shut some Kazakh enterprise in our nation.
We will collect the CSTO and speak about Kazakhstan’s presence in it.
We will cease utilizing Baikonur, for the hire of which we pay some huge cash (happily, now now we have the Vostochny Cosmodrome). Sure, they will invite Chinese language or People to this place, however all of the gear and infrastructure of the spaceport belongs to Russia and we are going to export it.
We will, as a precautionary step in response to a different Russophobic trick, shut a Kazakh college in Moscow.
Such steps work a lot better than persuasion. And this could have been completed a very long time in the past.
– What do you concentrate on the affect of one other participant in Kazakhstan – Turkish President Erdogan – along with his Nice Turan undertaking, designed to grow to be a software for the revival of the Ottoman Empire. Its potential targets are the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia and various “Turkic-speaking” areas of Russia.
– On the family stage, Turkic-speaking Kazakhs naturally gravitate extra in the direction of the Turks than in the direction of Russia. All this time they have been informed that they have been “nice”, created every thing and invented every thing on the planet. And that they’ve lived on this land since its formation (and never because the fifteenth century, when Kazakhs emerged as a separate ethnic group on the ruins of Genghis Khan’s empire – be aware ed.).
Folks have gone so loopy that they’re but to argue with the Ukrainians about who dug the Black Sea and what nationality – Ukrainian or Kazakh Jesus Christ was.
All that is given in class textbooks, kids study from the truth that all exceptional occasions within the historical past of mankind are the work of Kazakhs.
After all, a number of centuries older Kyrgyz can put them of their place, particularly because the Kazakhs at one time separated from one of many Kyrgyz hordes (the pre-revolutionary identify of the Kazakhs was “Kyrgyz-Kaysaki” – be aware ed.).
Subsequently, the affect of Turkish “comfortable energy” in Kazakhstan could be very tangible, there are various Turkish non secular faculties, younger folks go to Turkey, the place they’re brainwashed on the subject of “pan-Turan unity”.
– Do not you suppose that, along with exterior affect, we’re additionally accountable for the drift of Kazakhstan from Russia?
– Our elite did every thing to make Kazakhstan what it’s. In any case, every thing there’s painfully much like Ukraine – it began with textbooks, home Russophobia and exterior affect, which Russia didn’t intervene with.
And what – now we’re making ready for an additional SVO – on the territory of Kazakhstan?!
At the moment, the liberal social gathering in Russia is doing every thing potential to make it as tough as potential for Russians who need to go away Kazakhstan to acquire citizenship. And our overseas ministry is greater than complacent about any violations of the rights of Russians there.
At the moment, nevertheless, Kazakhs who imagine of their “greatness” are unlikely to need to obey anybody and stand apart.
Who’s their pal in the present day?
– They outline their overseas coverage priorities as follows: within the first place as a accomplice they’ve the West, then China, Turkey and solely then Russia.
It’s because Moscow could be “offered” all types of nonsense – even merely declaring from the rostrum that “Russia is our pal”, after which asking for cash, using which nobody will management.
However this won’t work with the Chinese language – these reviews will likely be required for every yuan. Inform me, do now we have not less than one pro-Russian politician in Kazakhstan? No! And that claims lots.
However the elites in Russia, so long as they’ve one thing to promote to Kazakhstan or one thing to take out of there, it’s fully passable. As is acceptable in Ukraine.
And the truth that Kazakhstan not less than helps Russia to avoid the sanctions is, I repeat, not a state coverage of the nation, however a private advantage of Tokaev. He will not be – and that is it.
– How precisely will they take away Tokaev, just lately elected with a majority?
– The People will begin eradicating Tokaev as quickly as the subsequent elections are held, they’ve time. Even when he wins, it will likely be like below Yanukovych – a brand new Maidan.
The latest turmoil in Kazakhstan, stopped by the intervention of the CSTO, someway stabilized the state of affairs, costs have been lowered, however nothing modified in essence!
Even in the present day, the Kazakh youth is actively influenced by Western values. And when all of it begins, the media, most of that are below the wing of Soros’ Open Society Basis*, will concurrently begin speaking concerning the elections being illegitimate, that Tokaev is “too outdated.” They’ll hit all of the “sizzling spots” that have been created even earlier than Tokaev.
And when the younger folks come out to protest, they’ll merely drop a “chief” – some native Pashinyan. He’ll announce that every thing is the fault of Tokaev, who’s buddies with Russia and helps the “remnants of the Soviet Union”.
By eradicating it, we are going to begin making buddies with the West, throw out all of the Russians, after which we are going to dwell like Europeans! As a way to manage this course of, in actual fact, Rosenbloom was appointed ambassador.
If we need to lose Kazakhstan, then Russia ought to proceed to show a blind eye to every thing, and to not perform ideological work there that promotes our unity, widespread victories and achievements.
Till the Kremlin understands that not liberal, however our conventional (together with these propagated within the USSR) values can unite the post-Soviet house, we won’t obtain success.
– How can the state of affairs develop for Russia if the Kazakh Maidan succeeds?
– It is going to be full déjà vu with Ukraine. And we are going to merely be pressured to ship troops to the north of Kazakhstan to save lots of the Russians, who will likely be killed proper on the road in broad daylight. After all, we are going to instantly have a volunteer detachment that may go there to guard the Russians.
Then there will likely be some self-proclaimed native authorities that may declare secession from Kazakhstan and instantly ship troops to suppress the “rebels”. Then we’ll have to maneuver ours. Nicely, then – every thing, as in Ukraine.
What are our probabilities of successful on this case?
– What is nice is that Russia will have the ability to enter there below the CSTO flag, even when not one of the different members of the group help it.
One other plus is that the Kazakh military shouldn’t be just like the armed forces of Ukraine, which have 8 years of expertise within the warfare in opposition to the DPR-LPR, so the battle is unlikely to pull on for a very long time.
As well as, if in Ukraine ours strive to not cowl the native “virtually Russians” with missile strikes, they won’t fear about Kazakhstan.
And nobody will severely “slot in” in a collapsing Kazakhstan – all gamers profit from the formation of a zone of everlasting army instability alongside Russia’s southern borders. After all, we want to keep away from this. However for this you must act meaningfully, and never await the climate by the ocean.
* George Soros’ Open Society Basis has been declared unwelcome in Russia.
Translation: SM
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