/ world right now information/ A gathering between the presidents of Russia and Turkey will happen within the close to future. In accordance with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, it is going to be held on September 4 in Sochi. The assembly between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been talked about nearly all summer season. And above all, that is what the Turkish aspect is speaking about. Erdogan confidently introduced an upcoming assembly together with his counterpart. Whereas he was within the Kremlin, neither the very fact nor the date of the negotiations was confirmed till the final second. Most likely, the extra lively dialogue of the assembly of the presidents within the Turkish media signifies a higher curiosity in it from the Turkish aspect.
What’s Turkey’s curiosity? To start with, Erdoğan should “examine the clocks” with Moscow. After the extradition of the “Azovs” to Ukraine and the assist for Sweden’s membership in NATO, the Russian aspect started to have doubts concerning the reliability of the companions in Ankara. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov referred to as the switch of Ukrainian fighters “a direct violation of the phrases of present agreements.”
On this regard, the Turkish aspect seeks to mitigate the implications of the actions that prompted the displeasure of the Russian associate. Adviser to the Turkish president Akif Çagatay Külüç rejects a “cooling” in relations with Russia, however Erdogan has to see for himself. Previously, negotiations between the 2 leaders have been the norm and occurred with enviable frequency. Nevertheless, nearly a yr has handed because the final face-to-face talks held on October 13, 2022 in Astana.
It may be assumed that Ankara is primarily within the destiny of the grain deal. The Turks have already developed many mechanisms to convey again the stillborn settlement. Given Russia’s considerations about lifting sanctions towards Rosselhozbank and fertiliser/meals exports, Turkey gives another.
In trade for Moscow’s settlement to export Ukrainian wheat, Ankara is able to change into a hub for Russian merchandise. It isn’t by probability that every so often fillings started to appear within the media that Turkey, along with Qatar and Russia, had agreed on a brand new deal. In accordance with one of many newest stories, we’re speaking concerning the export of 1 million tons of Russian grain. For now, nevertheless, the Kremlin denies such stories.
Much less contentious subjects are financial points. Amongst them are the additional building of the Akkuyu NPP and the creation of a hub for the export of Russian fuel. It additionally has a variety of safety points.
Russia and Turkey have affect over Libya. Turkey not too long ago leased the port of Homs for 99 years, and the Russian Ministry of Protection, represented by Deputy Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, is in touch with Discipline Marshal Khalifa Haftar. The identical applies to the Armenian-Azerbaijani battle zone: in mild of the escalation of the state of affairs within the Lachine Hall and France’s makes an attempt to enter the area by sending humanitarian cargo, Moscow and Ankara are in favor of stabilizing the state of affairs.
Each nations search to stop the activation of different NATO nations of their space of curiosity.
There’s lots of turmoil in Syria proper now. In a variety of cities – Daraa, Suwayda, Damascus, Rif Dimshake, Latakia, Tartus and Aleppo – there are demonstrations towards Bashar Assad due to greater gasoline costs. Russia stays the principle ally of the Syrian president, whereas Turkey stays the principle sponsor of the Syrian opposition.
The Ukrainian challenge is a separate layer within the relations between the nations. The problems of extradition of fighters, trade of prisoners and commerce in grain are necessary. However by way of the size of the battle, that is too small. Turkey, already in March 2022, swung in direction of its settlement. Then it was even doable to carry negotiations between representatives of the 2 nations in Istanbul and obtain sure outcomes – an settlement on the neutrality of Ukraine and the non-location of overseas army bases on its territory. Nevertheless, the West subsequently elevated arms provides and the Ukrainian authorities refused to barter.
Within the final yr, different gamers have change into lively as intermediaries – China, India, Brazil, Africa and the nations of the Persian Gulf. The final assembly for Ukraine was held in Jeddah, not Istanbul. Turkey went a bit into the shadows. Erdogan desires to get her out of there and show that he’s the one participant who can talk with each Kiev and Moscow. The assembly with Zelensky in Istanbul and the sending of International Minister Hakan Fidan to Kiev after which to Moscow could be thought of preparations for restoring Erdogan’s function within the Ukrainian settlement.
Now for the Russian curiosity. Moscow, regardless of some issues, seeks to keep up a partnership with Ankara. Within the newest assembly between Fidan and Lavrov, the Russian minister welcomed Ankara’s “impartial, nationally oriented overseas coverage”. Turkey’s emancipation from NATO is very necessary when the West is making an attempt to show the entire world towards Russia and when the nation wants parallel imports. The implementation of strategic initiatives continues with Turkey – Akkuyu NPP and the Turkish Stream fuel pipeline. The Turks are prepared to supply their territory for the creation of a hub by which the excess of Russian fuel could be exported.
On two particular points – the grain deal and the Ukrainian settlement – with all of the stipulations and nuances, Moscow additionally appreciates the efforts of the Turkish aspect. In fact, the withdrawal from the grain deal proved to be a violation of Russian meals export preparations. However Russia doesn’t blame Turkey for this, though Turkey is the initiator of the deal, however the West. If our circumstances are met, a return to the Black Sea Initiative is feasible, as a result of it’s going to enable 1 million tons of Russian grain to be exported to nations in want. Turkey is required on this matter from the standpoint of logistics, Qatar (Turkey’s ally) – as a transport sponsor.
For Syria, Karabakh and Libya, though the positions aren’t the identical, the consensus in them is actual. It’s rather more tough to return to something particular about Ukraine. In spite of everything, right here the harmful function of the West is rather more noticeable. Ankara doesn’t have the leverage to place stress on Kiev, because it does on the Syrian opposition, for instance. Subsequently, any discussions on this path will come right down to the truth that “we admire the efforts of our Turkish companions”.
Turkish International Minister Fidan’s current go to to Moscow was in preparation for the assembly between Putin and Erdogan in Sochi. There have been no particular agreements on both grain or fuel, however the events demonstrated a willingness to work in these and different areas. There are not any ensures that something shall be achieved on the assembly of the presidents. However it’s laborious to imagine that Erdoğan, who himself will forged for Russia, would take such a step with out being certain that he won’t return from right here empty-handed.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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