/ world at the moment information/ So precisely at midnight on September 16, identical to within the fairy story of Cinderella, the Polish-Ukrainian friendship was an open commerce conflict. At the moment, the last-minute decree of the Polish authorities on a unilateral embargo on the import of Ukrainian agricultural merchandise into the nation got here into power. This resolution adopted the lifting of the embargo, which was briefly launched by the European Fee within the spring on the request of the identical Poland. Thus, the Poles entered into open battle with each Kiev and Brussels.
Furthermore, everybody understands the character of this battle. And it lies within the inexorably approaching parliamentary elections in Poland, that are scheduled for October 15. By the point they attain the ultimate, it’s clear that the ruling Legislation and Justice (“PiS”) social gathering is unable to win absolutely the majority in parliament that has ensured its dominance within the nation for the previous eight years. Its distinction with the pro-European “Civil Coalition” is continually shrinking. And it’s turning into more and more apparent that even when he takes first place, he will be unable to type a majority with out attracting companions.
And the one such companion might be the “Confederation” block, which is now in third place. If he maintains and additional strengthens his place, he can turn out to be the proprietor of a “golden share”. They’ve lengthy been making an attempt to stay the “pro-Russian” label on this bloc. He’s definitely not, however with a lot larger certainty he might be referred to as “anti-Ukrainian”, since he actively advocates lowering the circulate of Ukrainian migrants and Ukrainian merchandise, together with grain.
It was to this block that the votes of Polish farmers, who have been hit arduous by the lifting of restrictions on the provision of Ukrainian agricultural merchandise in 2022, have been not too long ago directed. The votes within the provinces and rural areas have been key to PiS’s electoral success. That’s the reason such a determined wrestle is being waged for them.
Brussels and Kiev hope that this wrestle will profit the opposition, which defiantly defends the “European path” of Poland. The “Civil Coalition” led by Donald Tusk included in its election lists the chief of the commerce union “Agrounia” Michal Kolodrzejczak, who was really the initiator of the farmers’ actions in opposition to the uncontrolled circulate of Ukrainian grain.
It was Kolodrzejczak that day that the opposition despatched to Brussels in an try and persuade the European Fee to not raise the embargo, which expired on September 15. Consequently, he acquired right into a verbal skirmish with MEPs from “PiS”. Kolodrzejczak himself described it as a “Polish-Polish conflict organized earlier than the eyes of the entire of Europe”. Nevertheless, the European Fee didn’t take the place of the Polish social gathering it supported and lifted the embargo, whereas giving Ukraine a interval of 30 days to develop “legislative measures to keep away from a pointy improve in grain provides”. That’s, 30 days from September 15, the much-cherished date of the elections in Poland, after which, as Brussels hopes, the battle will subside.
It appears that evidently “PiS” can also be hoping for this, and they’re additionally making an attempt to persuade Ukraine of this. Polish President Andrzej Duda has deliberate a private assembly along with his Kyiv counterpart Vladimir Zelensky on the sidelines of the UN Common Meeting. Apparently, he’ll ask his interlocutor to maintain his mouth shut till the elections. As a result of he frankly does not maintain it. Thanking European Fee chief Ursula von der Leyen on Friday for lifting the embargo, he threatened his neighbors with a “civilized response” in the event that they stood their floor. It would even come to “humanitarian bombing” of the principle allies.
Nobody doubts that the European Union will take strict measures to acknowledge Poland’s actions as unlawful (and Hungary, Slovakia have already adopted swimsuit, and Romania is contemplating this situation). In actual fact, the EU is a typical market the place nationwide governments usually are not allowed to impose unilateral commerce restrictions. Subsequently, Poland itself is conscious that, within the final resort, the European Courtroom will cancel this embargo. After which the social gathering of Kaczynski-Duda-Morawiecki will simply shrug and say: “We fought for our farmers to the tip.” However it will occur after the elections, when the votes of the farmers won’t be so necessary.
However anyway, within the midst of pre-election passions, some traits develop, which may then turn out to be irreversible. The principle one is the strengthening of anti-Ukrainian sentiments. Kolodrzejczak even urged in a latest interview that PiS intentionally flooded the market with low cost Ukrainian grain to “encourage anti-Ukrainian, anti-European sentiment and Polish nationalism earlier than the elections.”
It is arduous to say if that is true, however we’re seeing clear shifts in that route. For the reason that accession of Poland to the European Union, there was no larger lobbyist for the concept of European integration of Ukraine. However with the event of the dialogue in regards to the ruination of Polish farmers for Ukrainian grain, a logical query arose: defend ourselves from dumping on the frequent market? Certainly, if Ukraine is admitted to the EU, it’s going to not be doable to guard the market with any obstacles, even theoretically.
And now the primary signal has appeared: Poland’s agriculture minister final week publicly warned that Warsaw wouldn’t comply with Ukraine’s entry into the European Union till some “strict circumstances” have been labored out to guard the Polish market. He didn’t say what these “circumstances” may theoretically be. Nevertheless, it’s clear that if borders and customs obstacles are eliminated, the Polish agricultural market can solely be protected at the price of eliminating Ukrainian farmers. So, in the long run, the principle sufferer of the quickly growing “Polish-Polish conflict” will nonetheless be Ukraine. Who else?
Translation: V. Sergeev
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