That is how Hungary’s possibilities of advancing to the European Soccer Championship elevated on Monday evening

On Monday, the economist Gábor Bekés mentioned calculated with the assistance of oddschecker.com and ChatGPT, what are the possibilities of the Hungarian crew – with out understanding the outcomes of the matches on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday – to progress from their group to the highest 16 of the Soccer Championship Europe in Germany.

On Monday morning, we already knew that the Hungarian crew completed in third place in Group “A” after Germany and Switzerland, and to maneuver ahead, it’s essential, on the finish of the group video games, to complete us in not less than fourth place. the perfect place among the many third within the group.

For this, in accordance with the scenario on Monday, two of the next three circumstances needed to be met:

• In group “B”, Spain and Italy shouldn’t lose to Albania and Croatia,
• In Group C, England ought to win towards Slovenia,
• In group “F”, Portugal and Turkey shouldn’t lose to Georgia and the Czech Republic, respectively.

Aside from these three circumstances, there was and nonetheless is a really small probability that the third place from the 4 groups in group “E” who acquired 3-3 factors with a worse objective ratio than Hungary, although nevertheless. , that is extraordinarily troublesome to measure.

(In the meantime, from Hungary’s standpoint, it could have additionally favored the Spanish to win and Croatia to win by a big margin towards Italy – profitable by not less than three objectives – however the possibilities that this was additionally true). small, so ignoring this did not have an effect on the end result a lot on Monday.)

However how are we now?

On Monday evening, the primary of the three circumstances above was met (Spain and Italy didn’t lose to Albania and Croatia respectively), so now Hungary will solely be eradicated if fulfill any of the 2 remaining circumstances.

These are the next:

• Situation 1: In Group “C” England wins towards Slovenia.
• Situation 2: In group “F”, Portugal and Turkey won’t be crushed by Georgia and the Czech Republic, respectively.

For the reason that odds of profitable the video games can change commonly, we checked the betting choices on oddschecker.com on Tuesday morning and calculated the chances primarily based on them. So we’ll see that

• the likelihood of an English victory is 75%,
• and the mixed likelihood that Turkey won’t lose to the Czech Republic and Portugal won’t lose to Georgia is 53.33%.

As now we have already written above, it’s sufficient for us to progress if solely one of many above circumstances is met, so we’ll solely be eradicated if England don’t win the towards Slovenia, and on the identical time, the outcomes of group “F” are additionally unfavorable.

And the likelihood of this may be simply calculated, as a result of it’s the results of the likelihood that the Englishman received with the likelihood of the second place, so (1 – 0.75) x (1 – 0.5333) = 0.116675.

On the identical time, now we have not executed it right here but, as a result of the above is the likelihood that Hungary won’t do it once more.

The possibility of passing is due to this fact 1 – 0.116675 = 0.883325, which is 88.33%.

Calculation particulars:

Cowl picture supply: MTI Foto/Szilárd Koszticsák