/ world as we speak information/ Based on established custom, on the finish of December we summarize the yr for the Russian oil and fuel advanced. They’re ambiguous.
Oil and condensate manufacturing final yr is predicted to succeed in 556 million tons, up 1.8% from 2017. The Ministry of Power studies new data. The press applauded.
Nonetheless, the worldwide value of Brent crude fell 41% up to now three months to $51 a barrel simply earlier than Christmas. The following day, nevertheless, it added 4 {dollars}, however this didn’t reverse the downward pattern. Subsequently, subsequent yr we’ve got each likelihood of incomes $35 billion much less on oil exports in comparison with this yr. This, after all, is dangerous.
On the similar time, the primary exploratory probe drilled by Rosneft and ENI within the deep-water space of the Black Sea didn’t discover oil. And the seaside resorts of the Black Coastline are usually not vulnerable to an oil spill, as was the case within the Gulf of Mexico. That is not simply good, it is downright cool.
However, US shale oil manufacturing for the yr elevated by 1.5 million barrels per day to succeed in 7 million barrels per day. With out going into particulars, I’ll point out the explanation: firms have tailored to increase the lifetime of their wells by turning on water inflows, drilling new horizontal shafts. Evidently for Russia that is dangerous. However the whole lot on this world has an finish. Subsequently, don’t grieve, as a result of the shale ball will proceed for an additional 3-4 years. There aren’t any everlasting balls.
Fuel manufacturing in Russia elevated by 5% to 723 billion cubic meters, of which a file 245 billion cubic meters had been exported.
It’s true that US LNG exports final yr additionally grew by 12%, which appears to be like dangerous for Russia. However its complete quantity (about 30 billion cubic meters) is 8 instances smaller than that of Russia, as well as, 45% of it’s directed to Southeast Asia, 26% to the international locations of America, and in Europe, to the standard market to “Gazprom”, single tons are obtained.
However our Yamal liquefied pure fuel advanced has reached its design capability of 27.5 billion cubic meters per yr. That is barely lower than US LNG exports. And now, if there are issues with Ukrainian transit, Gazprom can compensate for the scarcity in Europe with purchases from Yamal. And that, after all, is nice.
The one pity is that the unscrupulous resolution of the arbitration in Stockholm disadvantaged Gazprom of the actually earned 2 billion {dollars} and even ordered 2.5 billion {dollars} to be paid to Naftogaz. That is very dangerous. Such “arbiters” will not be contacted. Though it’s nonetheless not potential to get better the frozen cash of Gazprom.
However the TurkStream fuel pipeline is being constructed on schedule and shall be put into operation subsequent yr. And “Nord Stream-2” efficiently overcomes the American traps, the pipes are being laid. And which means that Ukraine, after a yr, most two, will not blackmail Gazprom and revenue from Russian transit. And that is fantastic!
We simply have to seek out out what’s going to occur within the new yr with oil costs. Originally of December, the OPEC+ international locations agreed to cut back manufacturing by 1.2 million barrels per day, however then “Brent” misplaced 15% of its value. Let’s flip to the statistics (Fig. 1).
It seems that as a way to cut back manufacturing, you have to first enhance it. Saudi Arabia started this course of in March 2016 and added 420,000 barrels per day by October. After which, in January, it minimize it by 500,000 barrels a day. Russia carried out the identical maneuver: in September-October 2016, it added 350 thousand barrels per day, after which slowly decreased manufacturing by 300 thousand barrels per day. The UAE and Kuwait did the identical. Collectively, these 4 main exporters produced 26.7 million barrels per day firstly of 2016, and now produce 28.6 million barrels per day.
Excuse me, however what is that this “discount in yields” then? Nothing. We pretended that we had been conducting a helpful exercise. And now they intend to proceed this sport: since July, Russia has added 300 thousand barrels per day to manufacturing, Saudi Arabia has 600 thousand barrels per day. And in January we are going to cut back one thing once more.
As well as, the decline in oil costs is being fueled by the decline in fairness markets, which has additionally been occurring for 3 months (Fig. 2).
Did you discover the similarities with 2008-2009? Evidently the New 12 months is upon us, accompanied by one other world monetary disaster. And if the exporting international locations proceed their spectacular efficiency, I might not be stunned by an oil value of $20 per barrel.
After all, a disaster is a foul factor, however you do not have to be afraid of it. By the best way, our inventory market nonetheless appears to be like higher than the western ones, it misplaced solely 9.3%. The height of the disaster in Russia has already handed 4 years in the past, and the poor, as they are saying, are usually not afraid of theft.
Completely happy New 12 months associates! Will probably be a troublesome yr, however we aren’t on the lookout for a simple life. Might all of us be fortunate this yr!
Translation: V.Sergeev
#yr #accompanied #monetary #disaster
