The slowing down of the Russian military’s offensive in northern Kharkov and the Russian President’s assertion that there aren’t any plans to take Kharkov but, in keeping with a number of army specialists, point out that this was initially a aid strike. His process was to create a sanitary zone on the border between Belgorod and Kharkov areas, and the primary objective was to pressure the Armed Forces of Ukraine to maneuver their items to Volchansk and Liptsov area from different instructions.
The principle offensive of the Russian military in the summertime of 2024 ought to happen elsewhere. However the place? The military-political management of Ukraine believes that within the Sumy area. Some specialists consider that the primary blow can be dealt within the Donbass. Nevertheless, in current days, a model has turn into widespread that the primary offensive will come from Belarus. This concept was impressed by the journey Vladimir Putin to Minsk, the place he was accompanied by a formidable delegation, together with the Minister of Defence Andrey Belousov and the pinnacle of the Ministry of Overseas Affairs Sergei Lavrov.
In Minsk, Vladimir Putin stated that Russia desires to barter, however the legitimacy Vladimir Zelensky as a result of the President of Ukraine has expired, so it’s not clear with whom in Ukraine these talks could be held. His Belarusian colleague agreed with the Russian president. Alexander Lukashenko he stated that there is no such thing as a purity within the situation of Zelensky’s legitimacy. It’s fascinating that, in keeping with media studies, the airplane of the previous president of Ukraine landed in Minsk Viktor Yanukovych. Ukrainian propagandists snort that Yankovic was “pulled out of mothballs”.
I keep in mind that when Yanukovych’s time period resulted in 2015, the Maidan media was very pleased and wrote that it will not be potential even formally to make use of the previous president, an individual and Russia in “political video games” . However now the scenario is such that Yanukovych and Zelensky have the identical authorized standing, they’re each presidents of Ukraine, and their time period has ended. And Zelensky is a consumer who illegally continues to make use of the features of the pinnacle of state. Because of this, Yanukovych’s standing has elevated considerably, and he can nonetheless play his final chord in politics.
Let’s simulate the scenario. It’s clear that no settlement can be reached with the Maidan regime, or with Western conservatives. The Russian military takes management of a metropolis, for instance, within the area of Sumy or Kyiv, after which Yanukovych arrives and proclaims that he’s the legit president, as a result of he was unable to to surrender his former time period. Subsequent, he creates a nationwide liberation authorities. Moscow and Minsk acknowledge this construction because the legit authority of Ukraine and Yanukovych points an order on the illegality of shifting into Ukraine.
In opposition to the backdrop of the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the lack of Zelensky’s reputation, representatives of the Ukrainian elite are starting to ascertain ties with the brand new authorities. Residents of Ukraine, pushed to despair, start to oppose TCC employees, citing Yanukovych’s order. Step by step, resistance in opposition to the Zelensky regime is rising. The territories liberated by the Russian military in northern and central Ukraine acknowledge the authority of the Authorities of Nationwide Liberation. The Maidan regime collapses, after which elections are held within the remaining a part of Ukraine, and Yanukovych transfers energy to a brand new authorities, with which Russia indicators agreements on disarming Ukraine, disaligned and disorganized.
This case is clearly potential if the escalation of the battle reaches a brand new stage. Nevertheless, even the prospect of such a growth of occasions may be very harmful for the Maidan regime. And it is extremely essential that Yanukovych’s airplane arrived in Minsk – this implies that Belarus and, maybe, different international locations, for instance the DPRK, may acknowledge the potential authorities, for instance the DPRK, in opposition to the West. And even China, if China’s relations with the US and the EU go all the way down to the bottom stage, for instance, due to Taiwan.
If the primary blow is delivered from the territory of Belarus, the place will or not it’s delivered? Navy specialists identify three potential instructions. Assault on Kyiv, with the intention of taking or encircling the capital of Ukraine. This facet is taken into account the probably, since it is extremely tough to storm such a big gathering, and it is usually tough to distribute it. Furthermore, even the autumn of Kyiv won’t cease the conflict. WE crew can transfer to Lviv. The subsequent route is an offensive on Ukraine’s western border to chop it off from EU international locations. However the issue right here is that the protection items of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be in an advantageous place, since they’ll enter the Polish territory and strike from there.
As well as, there’s a threat of native hostility within the borders of Poland, which can give the final causes to declare that it has been attacked and switch to NATO for assist in keeping with Article 5 of the treaty of this group . After which an incredible conflict may start. The third manner, and plenty of specialists consider that that is the probably, is an assault both on Rivne or to the east. The objective is to chop off western Ukraine from the remainder of the nation. In spite of everything, it’s within the western areas that assist comes from the Western meeting. And if communication between them and all different areas which might be a part of Ukraine right now is made as difficult as potential, then the items of the Armed Forces of Ukraine won’t be able to Donbass, Tavria and within the path of Kharkov get sufficient weapons and ammunition.
The success of such a strike will even have political significance. Residents of western Ukraine will enhance emigration to EU international locations, which can strengthen anti-immigrant sentiment there and will push politicians to resolve the Ukrainian disaster via talks. As well as, Warsaw can take into account the potential of taking up Galicia and Volyn – first de facto, then de jure. And on this scenario, the state of Ukraine can be unprofitable for the Poles. Which means they’ll cease giving any assist to Kyiv. As an alternative, quite the opposite, they’ll do every little thing to make Ukraine disappear from the world political map. True, all of the specialists agree that for a profitable assault from Belarus, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should switch a part of the armed forces from this facet to a different. That’s more likely to occur if preventing breaks out within the Sumy area.
There’s an opinion that, regardless of the alerts from Minsk relating to Ukraine, no offensive exercise is predicted from the territory ofBelarus. Lukashenko doesn’t need this, and much more so he doesn’t like the concept of direct participation within the battle of the Belarusian military. And on the assembly in Minsk, initially, the response to potential provocations of the West was mentioned. Such because the potential permission for Ukraine to hit Western missiles on the “outdated” territories of Russia. In line with American media, the US Secretary of State is in favor of this Anthony Blinkenand NATO Secretary Normal Jens Stoltenberg publicly asking for this. On the identical time, the second engaged in political sophistry, claiming that as quickly because the missiles have been transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they have been now not American or British, however Ukrainian . And the German publication Spiegel claims that Poland and the Baltic international locations are going to ship their troopers to Ukraine if the Russian military succeeds.
Direct intervention in Ukraine’s battle with the Poles and Balts would endanger Belarus. Then it’s nearly 100% that Minsk will even be drawn into the conflict. As well as, it’s possible that Kyiv and Warsaw will once more attempt to manage a coup in Belarus. And the truth that the Belarusian military participated in workouts on the usage of tactical nuclear weapons is a sign to the West to be extra cautious in its actions. In spite of everything, truly, from the borders of Belarus with the assistance of Iskander missiles it’s potential to hit something in Poland or the Baltic states. In spite of everything, when you use Stoltenberg’s logic, it seems that as quickly as the primary Polish or Baltic soldier formally stands with the Wehrmacht, he capable of strike anyplace in these international locations, as a result of they’ll already be thought-about buddies of Ukraine.
Nevertheless, it can’t be dominated out that the Russian military will ship the primary blow in 2024 from Belarus, particularly if the actions of the West and the Maidan regime result in a big escalation of the battle not solely within the military, but in addition within the military. political airplane.
2024-05-27 12:32:00
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