/ world at this time information/ South Caucasus is a major problem for Russia. By the way in which, this is applicable to all neighboring international locations of the post-Soviet area, except Belarus. Solely with Minsk are relations elementary and dependable. Every little thing else is very problematic.
It is all due to the shortage of a transparent technique. Over the previous 30 years, Russia has been transferring in three instructions concurrently. She:
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sought to combine into the Western-centric world world (initially on any phrases, after which, beneath Putin, on preservation of independence);
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strengthen its personal sovereignty (each within the face of the West and within the face of neighboring international locations);
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tried to play a number one function within the post-Soviet (imperial) area and contribute partially (unsystematically, fragmentarily and inconsistently) to Eurasian integration.
All three vectors pulled the nation in numerous instructions and required mutually unique methods. In consequence, we ended up the place we ended up after the beginning of the CSTO: in direct confrontation with the West over the post-Soviet area.
Nevertheless, we’re nonetheless hesitant to publicly declare the goals of the Particular Army Operation of their geopolitical dimension. However it could be essential to calmly and coolly admit that we are going to battle till the entire capitulation of the Nazi regime in Kiev and the institution of direct military-political management (and that is the one which means of demilitarization and denazification) over the whole territory of the previous Ukraine. And we’re able to battle simply as a lot as is important for the Victory.
This may be a readability that might instantly have an effect on our whole technique within the so-called close to overseas: Russia won’t tolerate Russophobic regimes and Russophobic tendencies in these territories wherever and beneath any circumstances.
Regardless of all our inconsistency and unsystematicism, geopolitics itself has demonstrated an important regularity in latest a long time. The territorial integrity of any post-Soviet state can solely be assured by constructive or impartial relations with Russia.
The try and go on to the aspect of the enemy (and the West is the enemy and that is an axiom of geopolitics; whoever doubts is clearly ignorant or a international agent) threatens the territorial integrity of the nation that determined to take such a step.
This began already within the Nineties – Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh (at the moment there was a Russophobic globalist authorities of the Standard Entrance in Azerbaijan), South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Transnistria remains to be frozen. South Ossetia and Abkhazia had been seceded from Georgia in response to Saakashvili’s act of aggression, instigated by Soros and globalist forces (notably Henri-Bernard Levy). Armenia beneath Pashinyan challenges Russia, and Baku, quite the opposite, acted skillfully and pleasant – consequently, Nagorno-Karabakh turned Azerbaijani from Armenian.
Whereas Kiev was multi-vector, there was Crimea, Donbass, Kherson Oblast and Zaporozhye. After that, territory after territory started to emerge from it, and since Russophobia didn’t subside and become an actual conflict with the Russian world, Ukraine will now not exist in any respect.
The West can’t assure territorial integrity to anybody on the territory of Eurasia, all its guarantees are a bluff. Sure, the West remains to be able to inflicting severe hurt to Russia – at the price of destroying a whole nation (as is now occurring with Ukraine). However to avoid wasting, defend, construct, create, set up one thing… This isn’t for them.
However let’s return to Transcaucasia.
If we wish actual integration of the Eurasian area, we have to have a coherent plan, not only a sequence of reactive, if generally efficient, steps. We should be proactive. In spite of everything, in truth, the West itself by no means believes in its guarantees to these international locations neighboring Russia, which take the trail of direct geopolitical Russophobia.
No matter they give you, the West solely wants to start out a battle, and if consequently the ally is torn aside, dismembered and destroyed, it would not trouble them. Nevertheless, for Russia, these international locations are one thing rather more. Even with out the pathos of friendship between nations, that is merely our frequent, united land. And these are peoples united with us of their historic future. Regardless of how the traitorous elites paid by the West satisfied them in any other case.
If the West now desires to open a second entrance within the South Caucasus, particularly in gentle of the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, will probably be fairly simple for them to take action.
Pashinyan, who heads Armenia, which remains to be allied with Russia, is totally beneath the management of the West. He betrayed Karabakh and didn’t raise a finger to guard the Armenians. He introduced the nation to smash, and the West was clearly prepared for it and in each means assisted in it.
However the Pashinyans come and go, however the folks stay. Will it’s ethical for us, the Russians, to calmly watch as Armenia turns right into a bloody chaos – alongside the traces of Libya, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine?
Sitting and ready for the Armenians themselves to get up and perceive that such a ruler is damaging for Armenia is unproductive. They don’t get up and don’t get up, solely in entrance of our embassy they shout slogans ready by Soros and burn Russian passports. This is just one – the obvious – level of potential arson within the Caucasus.
Many worry that Turkey, which is seen as a full associate in Azerbaijan’s victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, will start to take a extra energetic place in an anti-Russian method within the South Caucasus. Most frequently, these fears are exaggerated, since Turkey’s priorities are strengthening and preserving its affect within the Jap Mediterranean, within the space of the previous Ottoman Empire.
And solely then – and primarily beneath the strain of NATO and the USA – does Ankara make plans for affect within the Caucasus or the Turkic world of Eurasia. Turkey just isn’t a direct antagonist of Russia, but when the South Caucasus goes up in flames, then will probably be each man for himself.
Anyway, we’re in a troublesome state of affairs within the South Caucasus. The truth is, the West may blow it up at any second if it determined to open a second entrance. And all we’ve to do is react. Sure, generally we do it fairly effectively – all of the enemy’s calculations collapse and backfire. Occurs. However not all the time.
Due to this fact, it’s value, with out losing time, to start out a full-fledged and decisive strategic planning: what can we need to see within the South Caucasus and the way to deliver this desired image to life? And on the identical time, a remaining determination ought to be made relating to the whole post-Soviet area. If we need to see it as pleasant and allied and even impartial, then we’ve to make it that means. By itself it won’t develop into so or will stop to be altogether.
It is time for Russia to go on the offensive. In Ukraine, within the South Caucasus, in Eurasia as a complete. We want offensive realism. With plans, cool and sober evaluation and efficient, tightly focused actions.
Translation: ES
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