/ world today news/ Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the magazine “Russia in Global Affairs”, chairman of the presidium of the “Council on Foreign and Defense Policy”, scientific director of the Valdai club, spoke about this on Komsomolskaya Pravda radio.
THIS IS DISRUPTION OF ORDER
– I just returned from an unforgettable, one might say bombing – business trip to Israel, so I will immediately ask the question – why did Hamas strike right now?
– Now all the conflicts that exist in the world – long-standing, unresolved – have begun to come to light. 2020 – war in South Caucasus, 22 – special operation in Ukraine. So the war in the Middle East is not the last. The international order is collapsing. It was not very pleasant, based on the fear of mutual destruction, but manageable.
Wars have broken out in the Middle East before, but the USSR and the US intervened and quelled them until the next conflict. And now I don’t see a mechanism even for a temporary settlement. I think Hamas, alone or with the participation of good friends from Iran, chose a very precise moment to strike. Israel has been in constant internal chaos for the past year, and the world has been distracted by other conflicts. And here it is, the result.
– What has Hamas achieved?
– On a personal level, Hamas, I suspect, has not achieved anything good, but we must not forget – these are religious fanatics. For them, falling in battle with evil is a duty of honor. Israeli politicians are very fond of the metaphor – “the Hamas attack is our 9/11”. But they are wrong.
It was not the blow itself, delivered by al-Qaeda* (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation), but America’s response to it that was devastating. The US started a series of wars and undermined its own influence. I have a feeling that Hamas, knowingly or instinctively, was seeking to provoke Israel into the same actions that would cause them terrible problems in the future.
– But it is not difficult to calculate Israel’s reaction. The Jews do not want to put up with Hamas attacks and act harshly. What are they wrong about?
– It is no longer important who is right. There was a monstrous outburst of hatred built up over decades. The absolutely barbaric actions of Hamas – so to speak, killing for show – naturally provoked a similar reaction from Israel. But questions arise about the effectiveness of this response.
HAMAS HAS THEIR TRUTH
– Judging by polls, 80% of Gazans deny Israel’s right to exist.
But Israel has also never believed that there should be a Palestinian state. We must honestly admit that Israel has never seen the Palestinians as equals who also have the right to such a state.
– The state has the right to an army. And then the future war that threatens Israel will no longer be with poorly armed guerrillas.
– Let me remind you that the “poorly armed guerrillas” turned out to be more skillful than the other armies of the Arab countries that previously fought with Israel. Hamas has its truth, which they defend at the cost of their own lives and at the cost of everyone else’s life. The impression is that Hamas generally does not care how many Palestinians die….
– You mean they hide behind civilians?
– They don’t hide, they just believe that a holy cause is worth dying for. The main problem is what to do with this Gaza later? Even if it is destroyed and cleared, even if what the Israeli authorities are talking about happens, there will be no Hamas…
But there are 2.5 million people in the Gaza Strip! What to do with them? There is nowhere to deport them, of course, it is impossible to destroy them. This is an impasse from which I believe there is no way out. Going back to the very beginning of the conversation – about 35 years ago there was an illusion that the big ones would solve the issue (the States and the Soviets). Now nobody can decide anything, including the US.
CHAINS OF CONFLICTS
– Aren’t we sliding towards World War III?
– Not in Gaza we are sliding towards it. Based on the aggregate of all conflicts. We instinctively expect that a war will break out like World War I, World War II… But such wars probably won’t happen anymore – after all, there are nuclear weapons that still deter many.
But there is a chain of conflicts affecting the whole world. In fact, World War III is already underway. In that sense, it is still better than the wars that happened in the 20th century, but there is little joy.
AND AT ALL – CHUBAIS IS THERE!
– When you first come to Israel, you find that the country is… almost Russian. As Vysotsky sings, “there are a quarter of our people.” But then why do people in Russia worry more about the Arabs?
– Such a complicated subject. From this point of view, our confrontation with Ukraine is something completely surprising. Both here and there they speak Russian, listen to Vysotsky… For our citizens, Israel is part of the American world, and we are at war with America, which means they need it.
– And anyway, Chubais is there.
– Exactly (laughs).
– Does Russia get geopolitical benefits from this conflict?
– Let’s not consider someone else’s tragedy a benefit…
– Politics is cynical.
– I am not convinced that the effect will be linear. Biden made an interesting speech: he strictly linked two topics – Ukraine and Israel, and on the other hand, Russia and Hamas. Such a feint – we create the image of an enemy – “tyrants and terrorists” (TT). Knowing the psychology of American politics, which needs simple, understandable schemes, I do not rule out that this could work. Including for lending money. Now US lawmakers will give money to Israel, but not to Ukraine. But if you tie the two conflicts tightly together, they will give you for both.
WILL OURS BEAT?
– Is Russia’s strategy in the conflict with the West successful – to “sit back”, to wait for the enemy”?
– I think there is a chance to change the political landscape in the West. They have just announced the creation of a new party in Germany, launched by Sarah Wagenknecht, former head of the former East German Communists. And almost 20% of Germans are ready to support Sarah, because she says: let’s take care of ourselves, not the conflict with Russia.
In France, they seriously expect Marine Le Pen to win the next election in 2027. But I would not expect that everything will change from this… Moscow’s strategy, if I understand correctly, in any more or less conservative scenarios, no transition to a Russia-NATO war, based on the fact that our resource is greater than what can be given to Ukraine. And so in the end ours will win.
True, another question arises – let’s say that we “sat” too long. But what are we going to do next? This, in my opinion, is the significantly more difficult question.
– Is our planning horizon small?
– He is not big everywhere. But moving the planning horizon far into the future makes no sense today.
WE ARE STILL GETTING DISTANT FROM THE USSR
– But what are we building then? Do we have a plan? Or is this another experiment on the state?
– We are not building anything. We built passionately and destructively in the 20th century. There was a really extensive experiment that ended in failure. Now, in my opinion, instead of a conscious construction, there is an attempt to adapt to what is changing. We are still moving away from the USSR – in some places for the better, in others – not a fact…
– Inertia movement?
– Inertial and inevitable – that’s how powerful the experiment was. It leaves a very long trail behind. For a long time we thought that the Soviet borders were our natural ones, we lost them for various reasons, but in general it would be desirable to restore them. Now, it seems to me, it will disappear completely – this is exactly what the SVO is for. We are not restoring the USSR, but we are defining ourselves within those boundaries that we consider to be primordial and necessary for ourselves. What we will get to – we don’t know yet. But now the whole world moves like this.
DO WE NEED “OUR OWN HOUSE”
– That is, in the general chaos, we are also chaotic, and we do not know the purpose, like everyone else?
– How can one be ordered in the general chaos? It is impossible. It is another matter that you can treat chaos correctly and, understanding all the risks, avoid them. Today it is accepted to speak of “Russian civilization”. You can fantasize all you want about the connections, but the main property of civilization is that it is self-sufficient. She does not look around at others waiting for what they will say about her. It is China and India, but we are not. Our Eurocentrism, formed over centuries, is associated with a certain inferiority complex.
That’s what we need to get rid of, not the fact that we’re going to break all ties and live here separately in our own little house. Israel, by the way, also acts as it sees fit and doesn’t care about anyone, as we can see.
– If Russia has such a habit, it can break away from the West, but immediately attach itself to China.
– There is no need to be attached to China, because no one is interested in being “not by the neck, but by the neck.” Modern world politics is moving away from blocs. No one wants to be bound by obligations. In this sense, the Western system is unique – it has strict discipline, including ideological discipline. But this cannot happen anywhere else. And the West itself, I think, is yet to change.
Translation: ES
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