/ world today news/ On the evening of October 27, a sharp escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict occurred in the Gaza Strip. The world’s media is full of pictures of powerful explosions and evidence that the most intense shelling of Palestinian territory since the beginning of the month is currently taking place.
Israel is calling what is happening an “expansion of the operation”, the spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has avoided the definition of a “ground incursion”, but according to many observers that is exactly what it looks like. The scale and intensity of the ground operation cannot be determined at this time because the enclave is almost completely isolated. There is no light, electricity or communications in Gaza.
Regardless of the events of any given day, the Middle East is definitely sliding towards a major war. The US-Iranian war that could start if a ground operation were to begin. With intermediate stages in the form of Hezbollah’s intervention in the conflict from Lebanon, Israel’s inability to fight on two fronts, the US entering the hostilities on the side of Israel and then Iran on the side of its “daughter” Hezbollah.
It is this possible scenario that explains the constant delays in Israel’s “launching” operation in Gaza, and is why Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian flew to Washington on October 26.
„The visit of the Iranian foreign minister to New York was connected with an invitation to participate in the 10th extraordinary session of the UN General Assembly, dedicated to the conflict in the Middle East and more specifically to the situation in East Jerusalem. But the Iranian minister took this opportunity to send a warning to Washington and draw red lines “, explains the international political scientist and expert from the RSMD Elena Suponina to Regnum.
Yes, relations between the US and Iran are extremely difficult. “They are bitter enemies and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But at the same time, they are indirectly negotiating with each other – through intermediaries and signal exchanges – to prevent a major US-Iranian war in the Middle East.” – explains Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, to IA Regnum. in the Higher School of Economics. Simply because neither the Americans nor the Iranians need this war.
Yes, the United States needs some escalation. To justify the failure of one’s policies in the Middle East recently and to prevent the consolidation of the Muslim world on an anti-Israel and anti-American basis (which is happening now) is only possible by pedaling the escalation with Iran. That’s exactly what the Biden administration is doing now, says Dmitry Suslov.
That’s why a number of US officials say Iran was behind the October 7 attack. In doing so, they make it clear that this attack is the result of Iranian ill will, not the unresolved Palestinian issue. “Yes, there is no evidence (so as not to create political pressure at home in favor of war with Iran), but it is constantly being argued that the main problem in the Middle East is Iran”says the expert.
At the same time, however, the Americans are not ready for a full-scale war with Iran. And not only because Iran has one of the most powerful armies in the region. And not only because, in the event of an attack, it can cause unacceptable damage to the Americans by reaching American bases and aircraft carrier groups with missiles.
„A major war with Iran derails not only the Middle East, but also the global strategy of the United States and the policies that Biden has pursued since coming to power. This refers to the desire to “downsize” American policy in the Middle East and build an architecture there that would allow the United States to devote less time and attention to the region, shifting forces to more strategic directions.
And if the United States gets involved in another major war in the Middle East, which will require more resources than Iraq and Afghanistan, then it will bankrupt all its policies in other areas. So I don’t think the US would want to be involved in such a war,” summarizes Dmitry Suslov.
As for the Iranians, they have even less need for war. They may inflict unacceptable damage on the Americans, but they themselves will suffer the same. Damage to the economy, damage to industrial potential. Moreover, now the Iranians have barely found diplomatic options to solve all their problems with opponents. A dialogue was established with the Turks, normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia began, successful negotiations were even held with the Americans.
„In the past few months, these secret negotiations have even led to public agreements in which American citizens who were there were released from Iranian prisons, and in return, the Iranians began receiving material resources in the form of unfrozen payments that were intended for payment of their energy supplies”, explains Elena Suponina.
The problem, however, is that a major war could start without Iran’s willingness. And even without an Israeli ground operation. It is a fact that in recent days American bases in the Middle East have been subjected to missile attacks, for example, by the Yemeni Houthis or the Iraqi militias. Both forces are considered Iranian proxies.
And here there are two versions of what happened. The first is that the actions of Iranian proxies are a display of Iranian muscle. Attacks on US bases are acts of war, a show of force and a form of deterrence. The U.S. is containing Iran, building American power in the eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf, and saying that if Hezbollah opens a second front against Israel, the U.S. will deliver a crushing blow.
In response, pro-Iranian forces indicate that the US itself and its facilities in the region may be quite vulnerable. And that if Washington delivers a crushing blow to Hezbollah, pro-Iranian forces can and most likely will deliver a major blow to American bases and military facilities in the Middle East, Dmitry Suslov believes.
In the second version, everything is much more complicated. The Americans claim that Iran fully controls its proxy structures, financially or ideologically connected to it. However, these are often small groups that can act practically independently.
And any incident can lead to a negative scenario, believes Elena Suponina: “The longer the conflict in the Palestine region continues, the greater the risk will be that Iranian groups in various countries of the region (Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, etc.) will be drawn deeper and deeper into this conflict . American sites in the region are under their sights” .
And if the first version is correct, then the conflict is manageable – US retaliatory strikes on IRGC bases in Syria will be perceived by the Iranian side as a show of muscle within the approved framework. However, if Tehran really cannot fully control its regional proxies, then continued missile attacks could set off a chain of escalation. A chain that will lead to a great war.
Hossein Amir Abdolakhyan most likely discussed this matter in New York with his American colleagues. I tried to find some formula for de-escalation. For example, he stated that Hamas is ready to exchange more than two hundred Israeli hostages for 6 thousand Palestinians who are serving prison terms in Israel. And if the exchange takes place, it will be the first step towards building a dialogue.
Translation: ES
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