/ world today news/ The attack of Hamas on Israeli territory, which began on October 7 (it is difficult to call it a war), led to an immediate collapse of long-cultivated myths. On the omniscience of Israeli intelligence. For the impregnability of the wall around the Gaza Strip, equipped with all possible means of security. On Tel Aviv’s ability to effectively counter terrorism. After many days of trampling on the borders of the Gaza Strip, the “holes” in the IDF were visible to the whole world.
The first sign that the IDF was no longer the same was the Lebanon War of 2007. Then the pro-Iranian movement Hezbollah (Party of God), based in Lebanon, attacked an Israeli patrol, blew up an armored personnel carrier, killed and captured several Israeli soldiers to exchange them for Lebanese in prison.
The Israeli army responded by invading Lebanese territory and launching full-scale military operations. Aviation wiped the Lebanese border villages off the face of the earth, much like Gaza now. Hezbollah responded with counterattacks and rocket fire into Israeli territory that killed 44 civilians there, including four due to heart attacks.
Sad results
The IDF lost, according to official data, 121 people killed and 628 wounded, Hezbollah – about a hundred fighters. As usual, Lebanese civilians suffered the most: 1,140 people died and over four thousand were injured.
Israeli losses are remarkable. Up to 150 armored vehicles were destroyed or damaged, including up to 30 tanks. Israel’s state-of-the-art Hanit corvette at the time was torn apart by a missile, which shocked everyone in Israel.
And what is the result of this war, of seemingly the most powerful army in the region with actually guerrilla formations? Israel, with all its mass of weapons, vast superiority in technology and personnel of more than 30 thousand against 2.5 thousand fighters, actually lost. The goal of defeating Hezbollah was not achieved, there were not enough forces to hold the occupied territories.
They had to leave. Fortunately, the UN resolution arrived in time, demanding the withdrawal of troops from southern Lebanon.
The Arabs are getting stronger
At that time, Hezbollah did not have the modern means of warfare that Hamas has. Now there are quite a few of them. Plus, behind Hezbollah is openly Iran of 80 million, with its modern army armed with missiles covering the entire territory of Israel, as well as very effective drones.
But has the IDF become stronger since then? Did he take into account the lessons of the Second Lebanon War? Military expert Alexander Artamonov is confident that the IDF is no longer the same, especially in terms of fighting spirit and morale. The expert says that it is important to take into account the factor of the change of generations, which happens approximately every 15 – 20 years:
The first generation of the IDF was highly motivated, it lived through World War II. The second generation fought quite successfully in the Yom Kippur War in 1973. The third was in the Lebanon War of 2007, when Israel had complete air superiority.
All this did not show the combat efficiency and spirit of the ground assault units. And since 1991, Israel has been imbued with the Western ideology that “there will be no real war” and it will only have to fight weak fanatics. And the fact of the degeneration of the IDF is obvious. Which, as we see, was fully demonstrated on October 7 during the Hamas attack:
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what the vaunted Israeli intelligence was up to, ignoring two years (!) of Hamas training and the mass production of weapons and rockets, is not clear to anyone.
Now what?
The fact that the myth of IS’s “progress” and “invincibility” turned out to be a myth is noted by almost all military analysts. At the same time, watching the video of the actions of Israeli soldiers, not even the “mobilized”, but in the active army, they were frankly amazed at the lack of professionalism: they move in a crowd, do not know how to work against drones, and in general – if they impress with anything, it is only with the number of forces involved (they give the figure of 80 thousand withdrawn into Gaza).
Well, as for the ability of the IDF to work in cities turned into ruins, there is nothing to talk about at all – the first attempts to penetrate into Gaza ended in disaster for them. This is what explains the current situation: they still manage to hit residential areas with aviation and artillery from afar, knowing that they will not receive a response.
However, the Israeli generals, although nowhere near the level of the generals who commanded in the Yom Kippur War, were nevertheless in no rush to storm the dilapidated city. They understand very well what huge losses this will cost them. If there is a victory, it will be “pyrrhic”.
One more such victory and I will have no army,
– said the ancient king Pyrrhus after such a battle.
Israel is unlikely to enter Gaza with tanks and infantry. The most likely tactic is to destroy Hamas buildings, infrastructure and underground communications with guided bombs and gradually clear Gaza of the special forces. Typical American tactic
– believes the expert Alexander Artamonov.
Plus the blockade of Gaza and the destruction or expulsion of the civilian population. Yes, it is genocide, but there is no need to measure Israel by our moral standards, which are Christian in origin. There is an “Old Testament” mentality: the enemy is destroyed mercilessly – “to the slave and the donkey”.
However, it cannot be ruled out that it is precisely this Old Testament desire for revenge on the despised Palestinians (“semi-animals”, as Israeli Defense Minister Gallant called them) that lies at the root of the mentality, which can still, in spite of everything, make Israel sent troops to Gaza to fight “on the ground”.
But even in this case, according to Komsomolskaya Pravda military observer Viktor Baranets, the following things will have to be taken into account:
Crowding is due to two factors. The first is that Hamas has gotten smarter and wiser. He competently waged war in urban areas. It is used with sympathy in the Arab world. And he probably participated in the war through his “proxies”.
The second reason is that Washington is increasingly calling for “do not enter Gaza.” After all, prolonged fighting, casualties, and treatment of civilians very reminiscent of genocide hit the United States as well.
American experts rightly claim that it is not known how long this war will last – 10 weeks or 10 years. The United States simply does not have enough resources to supply Israel and Ukraine all this time,
– says Colonel Baranets.
Of course it won’t be enough! Zelensky is already crying out loud about the cut in aid to Ukraine and has even stated that “Ukraine is the same as Israel.”
If we add to this the growing reluctance of American Ashkenazi Jews to support Israel at their own expense (even before the war it was sent about 3.5 billion dollars a year), which is a project of Sephardic Jews, then it cannot be ruled out that the United States may to try to get rid of such an expensive toy.
So what?
As we can see, behind the bursting of the abscess in the Middle East are a number of factors – political, military, ideological and religious. Each of which, under certain circumstances, can prove to be fundamental in making a specific decision. However, no matter how the hostilities end, we can draw two conclusions right now.
What happened was the result of the American policy of “pacification” in the Middle East, which clearly proved unsustainable. As the countries of the region now understand. And that is why at the pro-Palestinian rallies there today they burn not only Israeli, but also American flags.
And the second conclusion. The end of the conflict that began in 1948 is not for one side to “defeat” (read: “destroy”) the other, but to create conditions for both peoples to gradually turn from enemies to normal neighbours.
Perhaps this can only be achieved through the creation of two nation-states on this earth: Israel and Palestine. Which is actually what Russia, China and all other reasonable powers in the world are offering.
Translation: ES
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