/ world today news/ On the evening of November 2, the Tzahal announced that they had completed the encirclement of Gaza City (not to be confused with the Gaza Strip). It should be noted right away that we do not know what is actually happening “on the ground”. The main information received are statements of the parties, photos and video materials – a minimum. But if we assume that Tzahal’s statements are true, it means that Tel Aviv has completed the final stage of preparations for urban fighting.
The IDF offensive in the Gaza Strip in recent days has been carried out exclusively in rural and desert areas where the Israelis have met virtually no resistance from Hamas.
The actions of the Palestinian forces have so far been limited to guerrilla attacks. On the Arab side, a number of videos appeared of successful destruction of enemy military equipment (including tanks) and personnel.
The network of underground tunnels that Hamas has been digging for the past fifteen years is actively used to conduct military operations.
In truth, the factor of tunnels located throughout the sector significantly reduces the effectiveness of the Gaza environment.
Movement of fighters can be done underground. Perhaps this is why Hamas has taken a relatively calm view of Tzahal’s advance through the countryside, carrying out only targeted strikes on concentrations of enemy troops.
Indeed, engaging in bloody battles outside urban areas, where Tzahal has a military-technical and, possibly, numerical advantage, would be suicidal.
Therefore, the Israeli army is drawn specifically to the city, where the above factor, if not completely neutralized, then significantly reduces the overall level of effectiveness.
In theory, Hamas could even gain an advantage in urban areas.
Equipment on the streets of Gaza will be vulnerable, as will the movement of IDF soldiers. At the same time, the Palestinians know the terrain well, know convenient firing points and escape routes.
However, in the Tzahal, of course, they are aware of such a danger. Therefore, what will actually happen can only be known after the Israelis enter the residential area.
How painful are Palestinian guerilla attacks on Tzahal?
If we accept even the Hamas figures as true, then IS losses in manpower do not appear to be serious. So, on November 1, 20 people were declared dead.
But technically everything seems more intense. Thus, on November 2, Hamas announced the destruction of 6 enemy tanks and 2 armored personnel carriers in the last 48 hours.
Six tanks outside the city limits in a few days is not so little. Considering the fact that even Tel Aviv spends at least 3-4 months for an operation against the Gaza Strip.
It should be noted here that, judging by the footage, Tsahal moves forward precisely with equipment without “military” cover. This can be explained by the high sensitivity of Jewish society to labor losses. And Israel, of course, does not want to suffer serious human losses from the start.
As for Hamas losses, Tzahal has already claimed hundreds. Thus, yesterday it was reported that 130 Palestinian fighters were killed in just a few hours.
I won’t say this isn’t true, but it seems odd to say the least. For its part, Tel Aviv recognizes 335 soldiers killed, most of whom died on October 7.
Step by Step
However, Israel’s main problems lie ahead. They are associated not only with the prospect of bloody battles in the residential areas of the Gaza Strip, but also with the outbreak of active hostilities on the part of Iranian proxies.
Thus the Yemeni Houthis have already declared war on Israel. I agree that sounds harsh, but the fact remains. Many were quick to state that in their opinion, from Yemen to Israel in a straight line is at least 1,500 kilometers, ahead of them are Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
And missile strikes, given the distance and the work of not only the Israeli, but also the Saudi and Egyptian air defenses, are unlikely to be very effective. This is certainly true.
However, the Yemeni factor must be viewed from a completely different perspective. The current war in the Middle East is phased. The entry of the Houthis is another step by Iran, which shows that it has decided to be an active participant in the conflict. Now – the Houthis, then – Hezbollah, etc.
By the way, on Friday, November 3, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will speak. Earlier, the Shiite group issued an ultimatum to Israel to leave the Gaza Strip by 15:00 on Friday. Of course, Tel Aviv successfully ignored the ultimatum.
Will Hezbollah open a second front? Such a development is more than likely. At some stage it will happen. The only question is whether this will happen after the end of the ultimatum or if the Shiites will wait until Tzahal is drawn into the urban fighting in the Gaza Strip. In any case, the decision will most likely be Tehran’s.
Hezbollah is currently engaged in low-intensity fighting on Israel’s northern border. Armored vehicles and concentrations of Tzahal personnel are struck.
Hezbollah is paying particular attention to disabling Israeli surveillance equipment. This would increase the Shia’s chances of surprise in the event of an attack.
In total, from October 8 to 30, the pro-Iranian group spoke of 120 killed Tzahal soldiers, and calculated its own losses at 55 people.
Washington understands everything
On the evening of November 2, the US Senate approved a $14.3 billion aid package for Israel. I would like to specifically note that Ukraine was not mentioned in the relevant document. However, the document still needs to be approved by Joe Biden. And there are doubts about that.
Earlier, the head of the US State Department, Anthony Blinken, said that Washington was offering Israel a “humanitarian pause” to evacuate the population from Gaza.
Tel Aviv rejected such proposals. But there is no reason to believe that the United States is suddenly concerned about the fate of the Palestinians.
Washington is well aware that there is no alternative to supporting Israel under any circumstances. Tel Aviv’s only chance for a convincing victory is a quick takeover of the Gaza Strip, which seems unlikely.
Now everything is heading for a long and protracted war, including with Iranian proxies, to which the Jewish state will be forced to direct enormous resources.
Despite its declared power, Israel is a fairly small state that is incapable of a prolonged confrontation. Even if we talk purely about Iran, the Persian state, unlike the Jewish state, is not yet involved in the conflict in full force. Tehran has many resources.
In addition, there are other players such as Turkey, which, if Israel’s plan to establish control over the Gaza Strip fails, will also see an opportunity to participate in the redistribution of influence in the Middle East.
The imbalance is obvious to the United States, as Israel can only survive with adequate American support.
However, Washington is afraid of being drawn into a long-term and costly conflict that would divert forces from solving priority tasks. Hence the constant attempts to find a non-military solution to the conflict.
The American ruling elite does not need any Gaza Strip. And overall, the sudden conflict seriously undermines US influence in the Middle East, because whatever Israel does, the Arab world will hold the hegemon accountable.
But it’s already too late. The pendulum swings. A long and difficult war lies ahead for Israel and the US. Unless, of course, Tel Aviv can quickly take over the Gaza Strip. However, there are no prerequisites for this option.
Translation: SM
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