A new-old picture is beginning to take shape in the Middle East balances behind the curtain on this unprecedented cycle of direct-hit tension between Iran and Israel.
After the outbreak and the exchange of blows (Israel had the last word by striking Isfahan ten days ago and Iran downgraded it as a weak blow so as not to be immediately followed up) there did indeed follow a relative calm on the issue of practical escalation. But there are not a few who appreciate that this “tooth for tooth” perception makes the situation in the Middle East even more dangerous, while others consider that this was the first episode of a wider war.
In essence, the two sides in the days after the exchange of blows began a process of reckoning with how this escalation affects the years-long “shadow war” raging between them. Their actions demonstrate just that.
The next day
On the one hand, Iran, as it became known, gave orders to reduce both the number and the degree of visibility of the forces it maintains in Syria, while at the same time a senior officer of the Iranian armed forces, Lt. Gen. Abdulrahim Mousavi, brought back the rhetoric of tension by asserting: “We will launch missiles anywhere in occupied Palestine (s.s.: he obviously means the lands of the Jewish state) if and when needed.” Indicative of how Iran perceives
the day after the exchange of blows with Israel is that he hailed Operation True Promise, as Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones was called, and argued: “Iran’s response was a legitimate act of self-defense against its illegal action child-killing Zionist regime”.
On the other hand, Israel, having “done its duty” and picked up the gauntlet by retaliating even with the limited strike in Isfahan, appears willing at this stage to focus more on operations in Gaza and the cross-border exchange of fire with Lebanon’s Hezbollah . The Iran issue has been downgraded as the assessment is that now, after the strike in Isfahan, the ball is in Iran’s court.
Moreover, it seems that Israel’s allies also agree on this, and they appear fully prepared to make it difficult for Tehran to come back more aggressively. So, even as the Iranian leadership makes it clear that it has no intention of escalating the response within the week, the Biden administration and the Sunak administration have announced a package of sanctions, while the EU is preparing sanctions of its own. In particular, Washington imposed sanctions on Iranian IT companies and their representatives on the charge that they carry out cyber attacks on behalf of the Revolutionary Guards, while London announced a package of sanctions against Iran targeting individuals and companies involved in the production of unmanned aircraft.
A corresponding resolution directed against Iran, Hezbollah and other satellite organizations, asking them to be included in the list of terrorist organizations and also targeting the Iranian drone program, was voted by the European Parliament. With this resolution, the MEPs request the imposition of new sanctions against Iran. It is noted that the sanctions packages from the US and Britain are the second to be announced in two weeks and this indicates that both Israel and its allies believe that at this stage a further weakening of Iran could prevent a new flare-up.
They want revenge
The return to the “shadow war” and the war of declarations between the two sides, at least for now, is also underlined by the fact that on the occasion of the announcement of the new sanctions, the Israeli side hastened to request even more measures to limit Tehran. According to a related article in the newspaper “Times of Israel”, a former head of the Mossad argues that Israel and its allies that impose sanctions on Iran should take a step and even implement them, essentially waging an economic war against Iranian leadership, which has set up a complex web of relationships to circumvent sanctions.
However, the freezing of direct tension between Iran and Israel reveals, among other things, the new balances in the Middle East in relation to Gaza. The fact that the Gulf Arab monarchies essentially contributed to the repelling of the Iranian attack on Israel may be a basis for the US to pressure Tel Aviv to back down on the Palestinian side either operationally or in the long term – diplomatically.
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