Shock measures for the insurance system or funding of the system with additional resources of 0.5% of GDP.
These are the two alternatives for insurance in a depth of 40 to 50 years, due to the acute demographic problem. Some of the measures listed are nightmarish as they raise the retirement limit at 73 years, cut pensions by 30% and they increase the insurance to 35% (for main and auxiliary pension).
These are actuarial studies that they prepare alternative scenarios to address the effects of the demographic problem.
Its worsening poses painful dilemmas for dealing with the effects it brings to the insurance system, which without measures will be led – slowly but surely – to collapse.
The latest data from ELSTAT as well as the reports of international organizations such as the OECD and the European Commission record the ominous picture of the worsening of the demographic problem.
Dealing with the impacts is complex: the OECD estimates that our country will have to increase the retirement age by almost 1.5 years by 2035 and by a total of 2.8 years by 2050.
The dilemma of increasing limits or collapsing remains, under the weight of the constantly worsening elements of the demographic problem. And this regardless of the individual measures that may be taken, in order to improve the parametric problems of the insurance.
Indicative are the figures according to which – if the acute national demographic problem is not resolved – in the year 2070, each person over the age of 65 will correspond to one – perhaps even less – person of working age, i.e. economically active.
Repeated reductions in pensions and increases in retirement limits become ineffective – over time – if no solutions are found to the acute demographic problem.
Today’s official picture of the ratio of employed pensioners shows that for every pensioner there are 1.5 workers, while fifteen years ago this ratio was close to one pensioner to two workers, when the insurance system was structured on the assumption that for every four workers there is a pensioner.
The studies
University studies list the dilemma between which – sooner or later – the country’s political system will be asked to choose: Shock measures or financing the system with additional resources amounting to 0.5% of GDP.
According to the academics Mr. S. Robolis (professor emeritus of Panteion University) and the actuary Mr. V. Betsi (Ph.D. at the same university) projecting today’s data into the year 2070, in that year “the workforce will be reduced to compared to 2020 by 29%, while pensioners will increase by 13% compared to 2020”.
The population of our country, in addition to being reduced, also appears to be extremely old. The elderly dependency ratio of 34.6 in 2019 is estimated to 59.9 in 2070. “This fact significantly affects, among others, sectors such as health care and the social insurance“, the two researchers estimate.
The two researchers’ demographic study estimates that life expectancy will increase – continuously – until 2065. It holds all other economic and demographic parameters constant. In this case, the social security system is estimated to be burdened, only due to the increase in life expectancy, by 49.4 billion euros.
Therefore, additional resources of 0.5% of GDP will have to be found to finance the burden on the system due to the increase in life expectancy.
Otherwise, nightmarish measures are required such as reducing pensions by 30%, increasing the retirement age to 73 years by 2060, increasing contributions for the main pension from the current 20% to 27% and the auxiliary from 6% to 8 ,1%.
Source: ot.gr
#Demographic #problem #Brings #measures #insurance
