/ world today news/ Sergey Borisovich, what can you say about the dynamics of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict?
Sergey Pereslegin: I believe it is defined by Palestine and perhaps by the forces behind it. It seems that Israel will make all the mistakes in this war that could have been foreseen at the pre-planning stage, and add those that could have been difficult to foresee. Let’s look at this question from two positions: historical and situational.
In my opinion, this is one of the most predictable conflicts. It has been analyzed many times by everyone involved in forecasting. And it surprises me when they talk about their complete surprise. The conclusion of a possible crisis in Israel was made by experts both after the events of September 11, 2001, and subsequently, when analysts considered several scenarios for this region. In any case, the outlook for the Middle East conflict was extremely unfavorable for Israel.
What is the main reason for this?
SP. The non-viability of the state of Israel. Of course, not because the Jews are unable to create a state or defend it well. Of course, this is not true. The point is different: Israel in the religious sense is a Jewish exclave on an apparently Muslim territory. Being an exclave, surrounded on all sides by other religious and national identities and, most importantly, by other civilizational structures, it turns out to be an extremely unstable entity. In other words, it takes a lot of energy to sustain it all the time – in the form of military, political and financial support. Of course, the West can provide one form of support or another, but its resources are not infinite. At some point, such support simply does not arrive in time.
And this is in no way Israel’s fault. I remind you that when the Crusader states were created around the same place, they found themselves in exactly the same situation: a Christian exclave in Muslim territory. Despite the unsurpassed fighting ability of the European knight cavalry, which was indeed a superweapon at the time, it was not possible to hold these exclaves for long.
The initiators of the creation of the state of Israel should probably have understood this? What then was the purpose of such an unstable entity?
SP. In 1948, this was not understood at all. There are still 12 years left in the era of decolonization. At that time, a completely understandable position prevailed: there are only “great Western powers” with a European level of culture, there is the Soviet Union, which won the Second World War, and this could no longer be ignored. China, Japan, Korea are not yet seen as a significant real power. And Arabs from the Middle East are not taken into account at all. At this point, the “constructors” of the new state saw Israel as an element of civilization, culture and progress in the center of a wasteland in which there was nothing politically significant. Rather, it says that he will move into “empty space.”
Remember that Egypt was previously part of the British Empire, Syria, a former French colony, was then in one way or another under the control of the League of Nations. And from this perspective, when Israel was created, it was not an exclave. It became such in the 1960s. And it is no coincidence that the moment of completion of the industrial phase, the first barrier instability, was marked by the Middle East wars of 1967 and 1973 with their radically different character. After the Yom Kippur War, it became clear that Israel was an exclave existing in a foreign civilizational field.
That is, then, following the example of the Crusader States, it will have to disappear?
SP: Then the exclave must either be destroyed or used as a springboard. If in 1967 it was partially possible to use it, then in 1973 it was not. After that, the main strategy for Israel became the search for a certain format of coexistence with the Arab states. But as soon as we talk about a format of coexistence, the situation of a possible offensive immediately disappears, and all the weaknesses of the exclave are instantly revealed.
The extremely high birth rate in Palestine and the sharp shift in the demographic balance in these territories further complicate the situation. Consider Yasser Arafat’s words that “the Palestinian woman’s womb is the country’s best weapon.” Since the 1970s, Israel is no longer a player that actively pursues its interests. Rather, it seeks to maintain the status quo, to keep what it has. It should be noted that in general it works quite successfully. Today it is a country with European development, with a high level of thinking, with very good training of the army. But here too one can see the problems of a future inevitable defeat. The Israeli army is too big and cannot be smaller. To be combat-ready, they constantly need American help.
At the same time, during its existence, Israel has not presented anything unique. But in such an exclave there can be incredibly strong cognitive or active activity. And then it will become clearer why it should be preserved. But it turned out that the Jewish population remaining in diasporas in the USA, Great Britain, France, Russia and other countries was much more active than in Israel. They have more Nobel Prizes, more significant scientific results…
Nevertheless, the United States has interacted quite closely with the Israeli innovation system throughout this time. It is considered one of the highest quality in the world.
SP: The word “considered” is key here. It did not create great innovations. Revolutionary breakthroughs in biotechnology, nanotechnology, in space – none of this passed through Israel. Yes, like any other developed country, it has achievements, including in medicine (especially surgery), agriculture and warfare. But this is not unusual, something for which it can continue to maintain the existence of an apparent exclave. Therefore, from the beginning of the 21st century, the following judgment gradually began to take shape: if Israel now ceases to be a source of instability in the Middle East, this, firstly, will greatly simplify the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean for everyone, and secondly, which is much more important , will lead to a new wave of growth of diasporas, that is, people who are used to scientific, financial, military, managerial activities will be forced to leave their original territory and go to the USA, Great Britain, France…
A new diaspora wave can give a colossal surge of development. This is clearly seen by the main Jewish families who once created Israel, knowing full well that this project, like any other, has a deadline. This is what we see today. This is a historical approach to today’s events. Israel, of course, can last another 10-20 years, but overall there is no positive strategy there.
So what is the situational approach?
SP: Let’s answer the question, what exactly was Hamas’s plan in unleashing the heated phase of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict? It is clear that the Islamic resistance movement launched a massive attack with the help of analytical-terrorist groups, which inflicted quite serious losses on Israel, including among the civilian population. It is clear that this is in no way a provocation by Israel itself. This is a real success for Hamas, which, of course, perfectly understands that individual cells of the AT groups cannot resist the actions of the cadre army. Here’s how it all happened: Israel has already announced the return of the occupied territories under control, and a significant number of hostages have also been released.
Israel then announced plans to clear the Gaza Strip. But the problem is that clearing a huge area with a large number of people is difficult even under the most favorable circumstances. Israel will have losses both in armored vehicles and in men, and they will not be able to be limited. Palestine has shown that it has learned from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: it knows how to use drones, it can use small, well-armed groups. As long as it managed to conduct an operation on Israeli territory, nothing prevents them from fighting in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, Israel is engaged in a long war and expects to win it. But such wars cannot be won given the existing balance of demographic and ethnic forces in the Middle East. And Israel’s advantage in weapons and a strong army will not help in this case.
Did Israel have a choice?
SP. In this situation, Israel had to liberate the occupied areas and destroy those groups that Palestine openly created. Then calmly go to negotiations, during which they will understand the most important question, for the answer of which the Palestinians can be forgiven a lot: who in Israel helped them carry out the operation. And no one denies that a fifth column was operating there, including in the Israeli leadership.
But instead, Israel launched an attack on the Gaza Strip. Note that he did not deal with the traitors. At the same time, “IDF” began airstrikes on populated areas. No one liked this – not the UN, not China, not Russia, not even the NATO countries. In fact, it turned out that in response to a terrorist attack, Israel responded with the same terrorist attack. And now we must either condemn both sides in the conflict, or neither.
In this situation, the consolidation of the Arab countries against Israel is completely inevitable. Yes, they are still afraid to engage openly in the conflict, but not everyone fully understands that this war marks the failure of Israeli intelligence and counter-intelligence, as well as the inadequacy of the IDF. But as Israeli forces move into the Gaza Strip, the fear of them will recede.
That is, maybe a big, serious war will start in the Middle East very soon?
SP: Yes But even if there is no war, conclusions will be drawn from what happened. Yes, now is not the most favorable time for many countries to start a war. Iran has its own problems, Turkey will solve the problem with the Syrian Kurds, and only secondly will it be interested in the affairs of Israel. Egypt is also not ready to start serious military operations. But the longer this war lasts, the more likely it is that the Allies will be drawn into it. This is what we are seeing now from a situational analysis perspective.
Another interesting fact is that the Palestinians apparently used offensive techniques that in one way or another were discussed for the struggle of Kiev against the LPR/DPR even before the start of the SVO, that is, they were aware of new methods of waging war which were were tested on the territory of Ukraine. Namely: massive shelling, sabotage groups, disruption of enemy control, and only then the advance of significant armed forces. The Palestinians acted in exactly the same way, except that instead of using large military force, they lured the enemy into the most unfavorable fighting zone for him, that is, the Gaza Strip itself.
Israel was unaware of such a tactic and is now establishing on the fly the interaction of its infantry, tanks, artillery, aviation and drones. This indicates a sharp loss of the state’s resilience. That is, intelligence has stopped doing its job. And counterintelligence seems to have overlooked the mass of “moles” in its own ranks.
Many of the Israelis who had previously worked at the border were amazed at such a failure of all services. This has never happened before…
SP: Yes, the border guards checked and reacted instantly to the slightest signal received. Someone said that, sorry, they are checking the activity of cockroaches: are they insects or the enemy is trying to disguise themselves as them. With such control, it is impossible to approach Tzahal positions unnoticed. This could be done only in one case – in the presence of a traitor who simply turned off the relevant sensors.
From all this we can conclude that the only allies of Israel – Mossad and “Tzahal” – have sharply weakened. Such “expenses” make the state’s position in jeopardy, regardless of how the fighting in the Gaza Strip directly develops. Accordingly, all the weaknesses of the exclave will now be revealed in a completely clear way.
Yes, the exclave still has a chance to somehow respond to the enemy – remember that Israel has nuclear weapons. But we must also understand that trying to use them in the Holy Land will mean the end of the state of Israel.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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