Floods have already cost Lithuania and Latvia more than one million

in 2010 Due to the formation of ice floes in Lithuanian rivers and rising flood waters, our country’s economy suffered 2.8 million losses. EUR damage. Last year, in Latvia, in the Daugava river, near the city of Jekabpilis, an ice jam that was even 30 kilometers long cost the Latvian economy about two and a half million euros.

Hoping to help prevent millions of losses, Latvian and Lithuanian scientists joined the joint project “ICEREG – Risk management of ice floe floods in Latvian and Lithuanian regions under climate change”. March 9 of this year. the aim of the launched project is to improve the risk management of ice floe floods by creating detailed flood maps and improving the conceptual model of ice floe formation, especially with regard to climate change.

Ice cream jams are an unpredictable phenomenon

Dr. Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė, the representative of the project at the Lithuanian Energy Institute, head of the Hydrology Laboratory, while justifying the appropriateness of such a study, points out that floods in Lithuania are usually caused by melting snow and ice accumulations (about 70-75% of cases), intense rains (about 15%) and water level rise in the Baltic Sea, improper operation of dams and accidents (about 15%).

“With current technology, the onset and size of a snowmelt flood can already be predicted quite accurately a week or two in advance. And floods caused by ice floes are completely unpredictable: in such cases, the speed of the water level rise is determined not even by days, but by hours,” emphasizes J. Kriaučiūnienė.

Although both Latvia and Lithuania have already included snowmelt and storm flood risk mitigation and management in their climate change adaptation plans, ice pack dynamics are still unexplored. And ice jams, as an additional source of flood risk, pose a dangerous risk due to potentially huge flooding and damage – both to the communities of the border regions of both countries specifically, and to the economy of the states in general.

Dr. J. Kriaučiūnienė adds that “currently existing flood risk maps do not assess the risks caused by ice floes in detail, because digital models that could assess the formation, forecasting and risk of such floods are not yet applied in both Lithuania and Latvia”.

And the risk is huge. Remembering the flood of 2010, Dr. Vytautas Akstinas, a senior researcher at the Hydrology Laboratory and an expert in hydromorphology of this project, cites really uncomfortable statistics: “The flood caused by the ice floes at that time affected an area of ​​40,000 hectares. The municipalities of Šilutė, Pagėgiai, Kaunas, Panevėžys, Jonava and Joniškis suffered damage. 35 thousand were flooded in the Nemunas delta alone. hectare area. Residents and their property, companies, agricultural companies were affected, roads were washed away, etc.

The specialist admits that the tides can change in two directions as the climate changes. “One of the two main views is that the risk of ice-flood flooding will decrease simply because of rising air temperatures, which encourage less ice cover formation and more intense ice melting. The opposite hypothesis emphasizes the dangers of flood extremism and surprise – that a society accustomed to floods may become a little too relaxed and ignore the real threats. Such relaxation and lack of preparation for an emergency situation can cause even greater danger than more frequent floods of ice floes”, – V. Akstinas opens the veil of the future.

Regarding people’s relaxation, the colleague also agrees with Dr. J. Kriaučiūnienė: “We can observe people’s negligence or carelessness even now. For example, when choosing a place to live, people try very hard to settle as close as possible to the river. When you try to draw their attention to the danger of flooding, very often they wave their hands away – by the way, people have been living here for twenty years and there have been no floods. Then a house is built there, the flood floods it and its territory, and then the person complains that the insurance does not compensate him for anything,” smiles the hydrologist.

Progress and practical benefits of the ICEREG project

Among other advantages, the ICEREG project will also be useful for people who are more responsible in choosing their place of residence. It is planned to compile and publish a special map on the website of the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service, which will mark places with a higher risk of ice jam floods. True, the map will not initially cover all of Lithuania.

“With this specific project, we will analyze the basins of northern Lithuanian rivers (Ventas, Mūšos, Lėvens) and southern Latvian rivers. However, during the project, we will create a methodology that, if necessary, will allow us to study the basins of all other Lithuanian rivers as well,” says Dr. J. Kriaučiūnienė.

During the project, which is planned to be completed in 2026, the most vulnerable areas of Latvian and Lithuanian ice floes will be modeled and mapped. “First of all, we will perform an analysis of historical data in the rivers of Northern Lithuania and determine the sections of the two rivers that pose the greatest danger to the population,” – V. Akstinas briefly presents the progress of the project. “Then we will carry out modeling work in the selected river sections, assessing the formation of ice floes with different probabilities and how they can affect the surrounding territories and residents. In other words, a general analysis that will allow us to identify problem areas and assess how dangerous they are for society,” concludes the hydromorphology expert.

J. Kriaučiūnienė separately mentions her colleagues from the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE): “In the ICEREG project, we will use the digital model of the formation of ice floes developed by SYKE scientists in Finland, integrated together with the HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model. The ice pack model is, of course, adapted to Finnish rivers, so we will have to adapt this model to Lithuanian conditions, filling it with our own data and calibrating it so that it gives suitable results for our rivers. Finnish colleagues have not only agreed to share their model, but will also provide training, introducing all its possibilities,” says J. Kriaučiūnienė.

According to her, after gathering hydrometeorological data and making sure that the calculations correspond to historical, actual flood results, it will be possible to make future predictions: to study various climate change scenarios, to change temperature, precipitation indicators and to see the potential formation of ice floes even a hundred years into the future.

The model developed during the ICEREG project will be applied to improve the current early warning system by including information on ice jam floods. The successful implementation of the project should not only increase the security of regions facing these problems, but also reduce potential economic damage.

The Lithuanian Energy Institute and the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service participate in the ICEREG project, led by the Latvian Center for Environment, Geology and Meteorology.

The project is co-financed by the European Union. The entire project budget is EUR 654,082.50. The general financing of the European Regional Development Fund – EUR 523,266.00.

This article was prepared with the financial support of the European Union. The Lithuanian Energy Institute is fully responsible for its content and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Union.

Press release