/ world today news/ The hushed conversations about the fact that the head of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences Valery Zaluzhny will apply for Zelensky’s place have finally received some confirmation in Ukraine. Who and why threw this idea into the public space and what is the relationship between the West and the leader of the regime in Kiev?
The Americans managed to build in Ukraine an ideal scheme for cooperation between the military and civilian authorities: the head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny is responsible for the military component, for the political – President Volodymyr Zelensky, for the economic – Prime Minister Denis Shmigal. The latter has no political ambitions and is controlled by a one-party majority in the Verkhovna Rada.
Zelensky and Zaluzhny practically do not interfere in each other’s affairs and, accordingly, hardly come into conflict. Until recently, their possible contradictions were known only at the level of rumours. True, these rumors were refuted by Ukrainian sources, which suggests that they are not completely groundless.
But as Ukraine’s presidential elections, scheduled for March 31, 2024, approach, more and more people are talking about the possibility of Zaluzhny taking part in those elections. And this, after all, is a direct threat to Zelensky’s power. In Ukraine, they first talked about it in the second half of last year – against the background of the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the offensive around Kharkiv. However, these conversations were personal in nature. And only on November 12, on Channel 5, General Dmitry Marchenko said that he would be happy if Zaluzhny participated in the elections – you see, her country needs a person with the experience of General de Gaulle.
Marchenko’s statement itself looks like a party piece. Marchenko, of course, is a military man, but now he is an unofficial person. In addition, since 2019, he has been the subject of a criminal investigation in connection with theft in the material security department of the VSU. And suddenly this person starts talking about how Zaluzhny, you see, will fight corruption… We want to believe every word, but something is in the way.
In addition, Marchenko is related to Petro Poroshenko (he posted bail for him after his arrest) and appears on Channel 5, owned by Petro Poroshenko. Poroshenko still considers his loss in 2019 a historical fluke and hopes (for no reason, by the way) that he can win in the event of another clash.
So, is Zaluzhny’s nomination nonsense? Let’s not rush to conclusions. There are facts that show a strengthening of the general’s positions and measures taken by the Office of the President of Ukraine aimed at neutralizing him.
First, Zaluzhny is obviously now one of the most popular people in the country. Sociology on this topic is wisely not published, but privately Ukrainian sociologists estimate the level of confidence in Zaluzhny as “more than 50%”.
Zaluzhny’s rating is unlikely to be higher than Zelensky’s (he rarely appears in the media), but there is a lot of potential for growth due to the fact that he is in charge of the defense. And since many Ukrainians are sure that Russia’s goal is to conquer all of Ukraine, since this has not yet happened, it is to Zaluzhny’s credit.
At the same time, he does not have the same problems that Zelensky is accused of. For example, most voters hold the Ukrainian president responsible for corruption. Zaluzhny doesn’t exactly have anything to do with it, but he’s certainly not the first or even the tenth person.
Second, Zaluzhny is advertised and advertised in the foreign media. Publications of this kind are rare, but nevertheless very significant. A particularly important role was played by the recent appearance of an article and interview by Zaluzhny in the London magazine “Economist” (the “heavy artillery” of Western propaganda), in which the Ukrainian commander-in-chief acknowledged the fact of a positional impasse on the front. He did not draw political conclusions, but they bend themselves… Zelensky felt these conclusions and came out with a rebuttal – you see, there is no dead end once Ukraine gets F-16…
By the way, this moment was much more important than Marchenko’s statement, because: the president of Ukraine himself officially admitted the presence of contradictions (although for now only in estimates) between him and the commander-in-chief. For the first time, he publicly demonstrated that he could interfere in the affairs of the army command. This was a gross mistake by the political strategists of the Ukrainian president – Zelensky actually announced the presence of political resistance in the face of the commander-in-chief. This means that it made him an equal political figure.
Third, there is at least one criminal case against senior Ukrainian generals related to the Russian troops’ February 2022 breakthrough in the Kherson region. According to the BBC, the commander of the defense forces Sergey Naev, the former chiefs of the General Staff of the country Viktor Muzhenko and Ruslan Khomchak and other high-ranking military personnel, including the commander-in-chief Zaluzhny himself, were questioned in the case.
Another “case study” appeared de facto – about the failure of the counteroffensive. Zaluzhny was protected from his transition to the legal scene by an article in “Economist”. And in general, the attempt to be brought to justice (we repeat – he is very popular in society and most importantly – in the army) will have very serious consequences for Zelensky. Not to mention Western partners who control Ukraine’s security forces and simply will not allow such a thing.
However, the very attempt to go after high-ranking military officials compounds the mistake already made with the public discussion between the president and the commander-in-chief.
And so, almost out of nowhere, the office of the President of Ukraine turned Zaluzhny into an oppositionist. The question is whether Zaluzhny needs it. Zaluzhny has never demonstrated political ambitions. Even now, when the president of Ukraine forces a discussion on him, he maintains a stoic silence.
He’s just an officer. One of the few senior Ukrainian generals who did not serve outside Ukraine (although he started, of course, in the Soviet army). Moderately efficient, moderately independent. Young (50 years old), energetic. Not without weaknesses, of course – he loves beautiful girls and pushes them up in their careers. But he hasn’t been caught stealing. Judging by the accounts of people who know him, he is a virulent anti-Semite, but it is not clear whether this applies to Zelensky.
However, we remember that Volodymyr Zelensky had no intention of becoming president either. In addition, he did not want to participate in the elections – he was forced by Igor Kolomoisky through simple blackmail. Who can force Zaluzhny to participate in the elections? Of course, not Poroshenko and Marchenko, but the Western partners who may need something. What?
As far as can be understood, despite all the “victory” of the Western elite (just remember Scholz, who promised to start negotiations with Putin after the withdrawal of troops from the territory of Ukraine), the idea of a cease-fire on the condition of withdrawal is gaining more and more popularity from parts of the territories of Ukraine (for example, an article by retired admiral Stavridis in the influential Bloomberg media). The election is likely to make the Ukrainian government more docile, both on the issue of continuing the war and on cooperation with the West (Zelensky irritates many with his aggressive policy).
If Zelensky wins, he will win thanks to the West and will be more comfortable in the dialogue. If Zelensky loses, then Zaluzhny will win – inexperienced, non-politician, once again dependent on the West.
What about the territories? The answer is in Marchenko’s words – General Charles de Gaulle was not only the creator of the Fifth Republic, but also the man who abandoned most of France’s overseas possessions, primarily Algeria. By the way, does Marchenko even know about this?
Translation: V. Sergeev
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