/ world today news/ The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia updated the macroeconomic forecasts for 2021. The growth of the economy will be in the amount of 3.8%. This is a record indicator since 2012, when GDP jumped by 4%. Of course, in many ways growth is restorative.
However, the trend is important, including for the coming years. And the trend inspires optimism.
Initially, in April, Reshetnikov’s department gave some completely absurd forecast, which assumed a growth of our economy of only 2.9%. That is, we would not even reach the level before the crisis. At the same time, absolutely all international agencies gave us more than 3%.
However, the forecast has now been updated. Now it is plus 3.8%. This means that Russia’s GDP by the end of the year will exceed the level of 2019 by 0.68%. Very good result. However, in our opinion, this year our economy is able to overcome the barrier of 4%. It most likely will be.
Now for next years:
2022: + 3,2%
2023: + 3%
2024: + 3%
Of course, for 2023-2024. numbers are very relative. But let’s pay special attention to the forecast of the increase in investment, which the relevant departments can calculate more accurately based on the upcoming investment projects:
2021: + 4,5%
2022: + 5,3%
2023: + 5,1%
2024: + 5,3%
Such an increase in investment is ensured primarily thanks to the conclusion of Investment Protection and Promotion Agreements (IPPAs).
In general, I would like to note. We see that our economy is very likely to achieve sustainable growth of 3%. This became possible thanks to the fact that statesmen took control of the real sector of the economy.
Mishustin-Belousov’s government used almost all possible tools: redistribution of budget funds, use of tax breaks, subsidizing the interest rate on loans for projects in key sectors of the economy.
There remains one more unused instrument – public investment from the National Welfare Fund. However, judging by the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, the effect of the release of the FNB is included in the calculation of the indicators.
Nevertheless, 3% per annum is the maximum that the statesmen can achieve now. Of course, this is better than 1-1.5%, with the systemic liberals, but still the potential is not fully revealed.
In order to achieve faster growth rates, it is necessary to establish control over the financial sector, which, alas, continues to be held by systemic liberals. This is not so much about the banks as about the Central Bank. The main issue is liquidity for the real sector of the economy.
As of June 1, the monetization of our economy amounted to only 51.3% of the estimated GDP for 2021. This is not just a little. This is nothing. No one talks about the need to print money and distribute it to the population. But it is necessary to carry out limited emissions in order to further invest in investment projects.
Sergey Glazev’s calculations allow us to say that if the Central Bank pursues a policy of state capitalism, our economy is able to grow at a rate of 5-7% per year. That is, 2 times more than expected and 5 times more than with the systemic liberals.
It is therefore necessary to wrest the Central Bank from the hands of the globalists. And as soon as possible
Translation: V. Sergeev
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