The war in Gaza “could develop into a long-term war of attrition, like Russia’s in Ukraine” says in an interview with “Vima” the Dahlia Seidlinpolitical analyst at the Tel Aviv think tank The Century Foundation and author of the book The Shattered Foundations of Democracy in Israel.
Six months after the start of the war, do you think the picture should have been different?
“Both Israel’s society and leadership are in a state of chaos as to what can now be considered success in this war. In part, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself has not set clear goals. Ultimately, the war proved too difficult on the battlefield. If Israel had pursued a different strategy, for example targeting the Hamas leadership very specifically or making the release of the hostages a top priority, the situation today would probably be very different.”
There is also the deterioration in the Israel-US relationship.
“Over the years, there have been other ups and downs in the relationship between the two countries, but their close alliance has always prevailed. In this case, indicative of this is that although a sharp rift has been created, there was an immediate statement of US support for Israel after the threat from Iran. The reason for the rift is Netanyahu’s apparent tactic: to show the people of Israel that he is “standing up” to the US president, that he does not hesitate to confront superpowers to defend Israel’s interests . This is, of course, a risky bet, as if it drags on longer than it should, it could have dramatic consequences for Israel. Mainly for the US to limit the shipment of weapons, although this is still a distant scenario. And for him, of course, it would have dramatic consequences, as he would lose both the war and popular support.”
Polls show a big drop in Netanyahu’s approval rating. There were large demonstrations last week calling for early elections. Is such a scenario possible?
“Almost all elections in Israel are held prematurely. In this case, the question is “how soon?” – this is of great importance because if elections were held tomorrow, the Netanyahu government would not remain in power. But if they are held much later, the conditions may have changed. After all, this is what Netanyahu is hoping for: that he will be able to release the hostages by then or, in an ideal scenario, demonstrate an emphatic victory over Hamas. At the same time, he would like to show a better relationship with the US, to prove that he was right to go against President Biden. However, the sooner the elections are held, the more likely Netanyahu will lose them.”
So is it possible that Netanyahu is deliberately prolonging the war for his own political gain?
“This is what public opinion increasingly believes. Recent surveys show that the majority of Israelis believe that Netanyahu makes decisions according to his own personal political interest. But this is something only he can know. Of course, there are various circumstantial indications that lead to such a conclusion. If anything, maintaining the war is favorable to his political standing as it keeps him in power – intentionally or not. In particular, if a new front is opened in the North with Hezbollah, then it would be even more difficult to topple the government, since the situation would become even more dramatic and there would be no room for political instability.”
#Dalia #Seidlin #Prolonging #war #Netanyahu #power
