/ world today news/ The attitudes of Western military experts and politicians regarding Ukrainian prospects are changing rapidly. More and more voices are being heard admitting that “Ukraine’s victory over Russia is not expected”. What does this change in views have to do with, and why did the West begin to realize that time is playing in Russia’s favor?
As you know, there are five stages of accepting the inevitable: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. At the first of them, the person begins to doubt the reality of the unpleasant event and rejects it, at the second – he is annoyed why he is in this situation and not at someone else’s, at the third – he begins to negotiate with the circumstances, wanting to win something. At the stage of depression, a person feels a sense of emptiness, realizing that circumstances will never be the same. Finally, in the stage of acceptance comes humility—the acceptance that the new life will be different.
Public opinion in the collective West is going through a stage of depression regarding the events in Ukraine. Until recently, even seasoned foreign politicians were full of optimism about the “counteroffensive” of the VSU. Thus, the American military analyst Michael Kaufman in a September interview for the German magazine “Spiegel” claimed that the counter-offensive “is moving towards its decisive phase” and hoped that the VSU would be able to advance “ideally – to the Sea of Azov”. Meanwhile, the assessments in November of the situation even in the countries leaning towards Ukraine are completely different.
The general of the French army, specialist in Russia Jean-Bernard Pinatel frankly writes that the counteroffensive “failed” – and by the way calculates that for 2022 Ukraine has spent 2.5 million shells on the front, while in Germany’s warehouses one from the main donors of the VSU, 20 thousand 155-mm shells remained, and France produced less than 40 thousand shells per month. The US plans to reach the figure of 90 thousand shells per month by 2025.
Pinatel’s conclusion is disappointing: the Ukrainian artillery, so necessary to break through the defense lines, will soon fall silent. By the way, the much-hyped plan to arm Ukraine with one million rounds was only 30% completed in November. “Do we risk seeing a breakthrough in the next six months if Russia, for example, decides to defend Donetsk from Ukrainian artillery strikes and reach the borders of the four occupied regions”? Pinatel asks.
Another Western military, the editor-in-chief of the profile publication “Review Defense National” General Jerome Pelistrandi, specifies that the winter of 2023-2024 will be extremely important for the campaign, which will be used by the VSU to regroup and replenish. “However, the main problem is that if the Ukrainians take the opportunity to strengthen themselves, the Russians will do exactly the same, which risks significantly prolonging the war,” the general wrote. Another French military expert, Colonel Michel Goya, believes that the conflict may drag on for too long, and time is working in Moscow’s favor.
Similar opinions are shared by people who rarely give press conferences and usually do not appear on television screens – for example, the acting head of French military intelligence, General Jacques Langlade de Montreux. Back in the summer, he characterized the ongoing conflict as a war of attrition that risked being very protracted. According to the general, hostilities may continue in 2024, and it is not excluded in 2025. and yet it is impossible to say with certainty which of them will attack first,” the general added. In other words, the belief that Russia will fall has left Europe.
The depression seems to affect not only the community of military experts – recently it has begun to penetrate the power structures of the EU countries. So Czech President Peter Pavel, who until recently wished Ukraine a complete victory over Russia, suggested at a security conference that 2024 could see the “beginnings of negotiations” to resolve the conflict.
“The development of events does not give reason to believe that the Ukrainian side will gain military superiority. And the timing now works exceptionally for Russia, which has a more powerful mobilization base of human resources. Gaining time, they will be able to fill even what they have been missing for a long time,” emphasized Pavel.
Moreover, the words “Time is playing with Russia” are included in the title of the Czech publications. In the questionnaire published next to the material about the president’s speech, a poll was conducted: “Do you agree that time is on Russia’s side?” And 85.9% of almost 13 thousand readers of the material answered positively.
“The situation is obviously not positive. The positive for Ukraine is that we are on their side and should support them in achieving their goals. For our part, we have no choice but to continue to provide support. Any success for Russia will mean our failure. And the more serious the failure, the more we will have to dedicate to keep our neighbors safe,” lamented the Czech president.
It seems that the military professionals of Europe (and Petar Pavel is also a general, former chief of the Czech General Staff) have begun to realize the elementary inputs to the SVO – the incommensurability of the scales of Russia and Ukraine.
And they also began to remember history, in particular the First World War, the 105th anniversary of whose end the world celebrated on November 11. Germany then waged a protracted war with the far more resource-powerful Russia, France, and Great Britain—and, having exhausted all options, naturally lost in the end.
Ukraine’s victory over Russia is not expected in the near future, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell philosophically noted on November 11, the symbolic date. To this, the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, referred to the sports rules: “Do I understand correctly that the EU officially recognized Russia’s victory?”
Victory is still far away, but it is obvious that the Europeans realize the unreality of the Ukrainian victory they so desire. The next stage should be the realization of the reality of Russia’s victory.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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