The dilemma posed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis apparently contains a contradiction. How will he benefit electorally from the risk of destabilizing the country when the citizens do not perceive this risk? The issue is more complicated than that development of a pre-election strategy and is related to the connection that ND hasafter five years in power, with critical electoral audiences.
The new balances formed on the occasion of the European elections, perhaps not so much on a political level but certainly on a social level, remains to be seen how they will affect the party system and whether they will affect the percentage of abstentions, which in recent years has been increasing in every election.
The losses of the ND
According to the comparative data of Metron Analysis for the European elections of 2019 and this year, it appears that in this pre-election period the ND presents lag in both Center and Right. Compared to the pre-election period of the 2019 European elections, the ND has lost 5 points from centrist voters, from 25.1% today it is at 20.2%. It is 13.6 points behind among center-right voters, from 76.1% in 2019 to 62.5% in 2024. The biggest losses are among right-wing voters, where it has lost 18.4 points, from 62.9% five years ago today fell to 44.5%.
The above evidence shows that there are spillovers across the spectrum that constituted political dominance of K. Mitsotakis and in fact to very critical audiences for the support of the reforms, which he flagged in 2019 and brings back as a central dilemma of the current elections. “We vote,” he said in a recent television interview (ANT1), “so that we can to send a strong internal message that this course of reform must continue unhindered. What do I mean seamlessly? The stronger the ND comes out in the elections, the more momentum it will have to implement its reforms, without anyone questioning the basic political associations.”
The “relaxed vote”
The European elections of 2024 are not a qualifier for parliamentary elections, as was the case in 2019, when the contest was much more pressing, as the governance of the country was judged. This year’s does not border on parliamentary elections, it takes place nine months after the dual elections of 2023. In one sense this treaty makes the clash of political forces more bloodless. On the other hand, however, it weakens the argument of the risk of destabilizing the government and the country, which the Prime Minister insists on. And this, despite the findings of recent opinion polls showing that citizens do not accept that there is such an obvious danger to the country.
K. Mitsotakis is not talking about imminent danger. What he is asking for is to maintain “the momentum and the backdrop” created in the national elections. “The issue of political stability is about who will challenge the political landscape the next day.” He links the questioning of its legitimacy to another risk, the possibility that the anti-systemic movement will flare up again, as it did 10 years ago, with parties that are either to the right or to the left of the ND and which, as he said, “move in a mixture of nihilism, incoherence and populism”.
The dual threat it indicates may not be at the levels of 2010-2012, but it does exist. THE Stefanos Kasselakis he does not disdain any audience, no matter how “sprayed” they are Kyriakos Velopoulos, stirring up the passions of the ND and mixing them with conspiracy theories and conspiracy theories about 3,000 euro pensions, he managed to increase his percentage spectacularly.
The Prime Minister is trying to highlight it right and left anti-systemic forces alikesaying that Kasselakis and Velopoulos is a remake of it Alexis Tsipras and his Panos Kammenos. As in 2015 disparate forces united to govern, the same cannot be ruled out to happen again, because, as K. Mitsotakis admits, the new anti-systemism “can step on a justified indignation of the world for any issue”.
The silent anger
From the positions of the Prime Minister, an anxiety emerges, which seems to go further than the pre-election justified one. There is resentment and anger in a section of society about a whole host of issues and given the inability of a party to cash in on it, no one can accurately predict how these angry young people will behave electorally. Perhaps within this dark womb something new is hatching that has not yet come to light.
At the same time, the leaks that the ND has across the Center-Right spectrum they make it difficult for the higher mobilization of the party’s voters, as there is not a single front but several. This phenomenon has often been observed in cases where a hegemonic power begins to retreat and lose strength in many fields at the same time. Otherwise the problem is temporary and reversible.
There are leaks in the entire spectrum that formed the political dominance of K. Mitsotakis and in fact in very critical audiences for the support of the reforms
From what one can conclude from the qualitative data of the opinion polls, beyond the various areas in which citizens’ dissatisfaction is expressed, a more general problem emerges.
The government has gained excessive power and the stains that caused cases such as of wiretapping, of Tempe, a pervasive climate of violence and insecurity, culminating in the murder of a young woman outside the police station, become indelible. A large part of society believes that overpowering needs to be limited. And thus manifests a social and electoral tendency to create institutional dykes.
The Fronts
The political stakes are changing
The aim of previous confrontations, still under the shadow of the SYRIZA-ANEL government, was to give ND and K. Mitsotakis a free field, complete hegemony so that he could implement his program unhindered. This now seems to be changing, as a critical section of voters believes that the conditions must be established so that the government not to be politically uncontrollable. This request has not been configured yet, but the European elections can act as an embryo.
The moment is special. The ND leads by a large margin from the rival parties, but with obvious signs of wear and tear. Second place has not been decided and the fight between SYRIZA and PASoK will be relentless, although they may no longer appeal to the same audiences. The need is obvious formation of poles both to the right and to the left of the SW, but on the left it remains a question how the correlation of forces will be shaped, while on the right the platoon tilts towards Kyriakos Velopoulos. The president of the Hellenic Solution, with the profile he has created for himself, can hurt the ND, but it is considered unlikely that he will gather forces around him that will put him in power. On the contrary, the Center-Left is clearly invested in the formulation of an alternative governance proposal.
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