FXNEWSTODAY – •The single currency is currently benefiting from positive sentiment
•Negative retention due to cuts in the European Central Bank
The euro rose in the European market on Monday against a basket of global currencies, as part of efforts to recover from the lowest level in five months against the US, thanks to buying activity from cheap rates, amid the positive risk sentiment dominating global markets. .
Despite the current progress in euro prices, performance expectations remain negative due to increasing pressure from European Central Bank cuts These cuts are likely to occur sooner rather than later, especially with inflation in Europe approaching the medium-term target of 2%.
Price view
• The exchange rate of the euro today: It rose 0.3% to ($1.0665), from the opening price ($1.0633), and recorded the lowest level at ($1.0630).
On Friday, the euro lost 0.8% against the dollar, the third daily loss in a row, and recorded the lowest level in five months at $1.0622, due to the acceleration of open selling activity.
Big weekly loss for the euro…why?
In last week’s action, the euro lost 1.8% against the US dollar, its fourth weekly loss in the past five weeks, and its biggest weekly loss since September 2022, due to fears that growing interest rate gap between Europe and Europe. United States.
The activities of the European Central Bank meeting increased the chances of lowering European prices by about 25 basis points next June On the other hand, hot inflation data in the United States reduced the chances of lowering American prices in June and July.
Interest rate gap
The interest rate gap between Europe and the United States is currently at 100 basis points, the smallest gap since May 2022, and is expected to widen to 125 basis points next June for US interest rates.
Good faith
Most of the global markets are currently under the control of a high risk sentiment, due to waning fears about the escalation of the military conflict between Iran and Israel.
Over the weekend, Iran launched drones and missiles in response to what it described as an attack on its consulate in Damascus. Iran’s military money did little damage to Israel.
Iran said the military strike could be “considered,” while US President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the United States will not support an Israeli counter-attack on Iran.
An ethical perspective
City Index said that the movement of the euro / dollar pair has become more bearish now, especially after breaking the main support levels First, the 1.0795 level was broken and then it fell below the important range between 1.0695 to 1.0725 . This area provided significant support in December and again in February.
•The EUR/USD pair crossed the uptrend line that has existed since October. With the 21-day EMA falling below the 200 SMA, this is an additional bearish signal.
•Fouad Raza Qazadeh, analyst at City Index, said: I expect the EUR/USD pair is likely to decline to the 1.06 level first before the 1.05 level, and may test the October low at 1.0448 after that.
The analyst said: Pressure on the euro is mounting, as the gap between expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank widens to its highest level yet. -year.
Artistic view
The price of the euro has strong support – today’s forecast 04-15-2024
2024-04-15 09:56:00
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