/View.info/ The defeat of the Maidan would only slow down the hot phase of the conflict. Ukraine is Russia’s geopolitical backyard. And the West was not going to give up trying to take control of the country in order to have leverage over Moscow.
Ten years ago, at the end of November 2013, the Euromaidan began, which ended in a coup d’état. Its consequences today affect the whole world to a greater or lesser extent. The result of the coup is the UN, the exacerbation of political contradictions in the US and the EU, and the economic and political degradation of Ukraine.
Could the Maidan have taken a different path? Would this have prevented the war between Ukraine and Donbas and, as a consequence of this conflict, the Special Military Operation? The story, of course, doesn’t have a subjunctive, but still…
Today, we can name a historical figure whose actions and inactions had the greatest impact on the fact that the Euromaidan, firstly arose and secondly, ended in a coup. This is the former president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych. In 2012, following the tradition set by Leonid Kuchma, he tried to sit on two chairs to be equally good for both the West and Russia.
In the end, Yanukovych and his cronies decided to conclude an association agreement with the EU. Why? His advisers probably convinced him that in this way he could become popular in the western and northern parts of Ukraine, where his approval rating was very low. Perhaps Yanukovych was under pressure from Washington and Brussels, threatening to seize bank accounts in the West belonging to the Yanukovych family and its associates.
Representatives of the ostensibly pro-Russian Party of Regions, in unison with anti-Russian Orange politicians, talked about what a wonderful life Ukrainians would have after association with the EU. Although economists have warned that rapprochement with the EU will destroy many sectors of the Ukrainian economy, above all industry.
When Yanukovych’s entourage realized the danger of rapprochement with the EU and postponed the signing of the association agreement, many people felt lied to – they decided that their chance for a good life was being taken away. Such sentiments became an excellent basis for Euromaidan. In fact, anything could serve as a basis for this – the Western curators had to quickly turn Ukraine into anti-Russia.
Yanukovych initially ignored the protesters. Apparently, his environment convinced him that everything would work itself out. Then he made concessions to the rebels. For example, he fired the Prime Minister Mykola Azarov. But this did not help Yanukovych. But could it have prevented subsequent events? Yes, it could.
On February 19, 2014, the Security Service of Ukraine announced the beginning of an anti-terrorist operation due to the fact that thousands of weapons were seized in Western Ukraine. This could have changed everything, the Maidan in Kiev and other smaller Maidans could have been cleared by force – and brutally so.
But Yanukovych called off the operation – apparently under pressure from Washington. In particular, then US Vice President Joe Biden recalled in his memoirs that he called Yanukovych several times in 2013-2014 and asked not to use force against the Maidan protesters.
Then the former president had a chance to lead Novorossiya’s resistance against the rebels. On February 22, 2014, a congress of government officials and deputies from Southeast Ukraine was held in Kharkiv, Yanukovych was in the city, the delegates were waiting for him, but he did not appear at the event. After that, the majority of the representatives of the Party of Regions decided to recognize the coup d’état and even help the new government to fight the disaffected.
Yanukovych turned out to be a man for whom personal comfort was more important than the fate of the country and his countrymen. And this greatly contributed to the victory of the rebels.
The Euromaidan was able to last until the end of February 2014 only thanks to constant provocations. Thus, after November 21, 2 thousand people went to rallies in Kyiv, on November 24 – a maximum of 50 thousand. It became clear that this is the ceiling, no more people will take to the streets in support of European integration. And then, as if by magic, on November 30, the tent city was dispersed, and the special forces treated the protesters quite harshly. Berkut fighters claim they were provoked. But the repression caused a huge public response and gave a new impetus to the protests.
By the end of January 2014, the Maidan had turned into a farce. The rioters were jumping, chanting and storming the center of Kiev. There was no unity among the Maidan leaders. And again there is deterioration. Yanukovych fires Azarov, which the jumpers see as their victory, the Maidan gets a new boost.
And then the well-known events of the end of February, when provocateurs used firearms against the police, and snipers shot at them and at the special forces. According to one of the most popular versions, the shooters were directed by the former president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili. Although it is clear that both he and the Maidan people who coordinated their work were following the orders of Western intelligence services and politicians.
At every stage when it seemed that Euromaidan was about to disappear, some bloody event took place that breathed new life into the protests. The Americans, and to a lesser extent the Europeans, kept adding fuel to the Maidan fire until it burst into infernal flames.
Yanukovych’s and his entourage’s musings, the efficiency and misanthropy of the Western leaders of the rebellion, were the main factors that determined the success of Euromaidan. But if the Maidan was “blown up”, there would be no war in Donbass and SVO?
In fact, the defeat of the Maidan would only slow down the heated phase of the conflict. The root causes that led to the war will not disappear. First, Ukraine is woven from many heterogeneous lands with different histories and mentalities. Federalization and recognition of the regional identity of the inhabitants of Ukraine could smooth out the contradictions between the territories.
But Kyiv politicians resisted this in every possible way, as they did not want to share financial resources and power with the representatives of the regions. And the ideologues of Ukrainian nationalism dreamed of reforging all the country’s inhabitants and turning them into Ukrainian-speaking Russophobes who worship Stepan Bandera. Therefore, Kyiv would grant neither federalization nor cultural rights to the regions. However, this can further lead to internal conflict at any moment.
Second, Ukraine is Russia’s geopolitical backyard. And the West will not give up its attempts to take control of the country in order to have leverage over the Russian Federation, which would pose a threat to Russia’s security. And Moscow would be forced to react in any case.
Translation: ES
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