How do the possibilities of war between Iran and Israel affect Biden’s electoral chances?
While the world awaits the nature and size of the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel two weeks after Tel Aviv’s attack on Tehran’s consulate in Damascus, officials of the Democratic and Republican campaigns are scrambling to study its repercussions on the chances of the two prominent candidates in the US presidential election race: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
In the context of its efforts to prevent a broader escalation of violence in the Middle East, the US administration has resorted in recent days to its arsenal of diplomatic tools to reduce tension between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
Absence of guarantees
Avoiding a broader war is a declared American goal, maintained by officials in the White House. While President Biden warned Iran of the risk of escalation, his administration is preparing for all eventualities. It seems that the “Iranian assurances” that its response would not be reckless, according to what was reported from its officials in media leaks, did not provide guarantees of possible miscalculations and miscalculations that could lead to an expanded confrontation.
The Israeli Iron Dome system intercepts rockets launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon towards Israel on Friday evening (Reuters)
If Iran launched an attack on Israel, the latter confirmed its readiness to respond, while Biden confirmed his full support for Tel Aviv. This American commitment opened the door to questions about possible American military intervention to support Israel in the event of a regional conflict, its size, nature, and time period. All of these factors cast a dire shadow over the American interior and the electoral calculations months before the presidential vote expected in November.
Biden’s chances
There is no doubt that the human and financial costs of the potential war, as well as the length of time it might take, are at the forefront of the concerns of officials responsible for Biden’s re-election efforts. A long or expanded conflict, and the possibility of the entry of regional or international parties, will pose a great danger to President Biden’s re-election chances. The longer a potential war lasts, the more American public opinion will harden against Biden.
US President Joe Biden during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, October 18, 2023 (Reuters)
In general, American public opinion tends to reject American military intervention in the Middle East, despite the dissatisfaction of a significant portion of Americans with the method of the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, according to previous opinion polls.
The other factor that worries the Biden administration and his Democratic campaign relates to the economic repercussions of any potential war in the Middle East. At a time when inflation rates and high standards of living have caused a decline in Biden’s popularity among voters, the specter of an expanded war in addition to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine may have serious repercussions on the prices of goods, services, and energy.
Experts believe that American public opinion, and democratic ones in particular, are already angry about the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip and the horrific toll of civilian casualties. Therefore, any expansion of the war threatens to exacerbate the pressures on Biden from the progressive movement in his party, and from the young Democrats who have expressed their opposition to absolute support for Israel.
Iran, Israel, and the American elections
Political researcher Douglas Schoen, who worked as an advisor in the Bill Clinton administration, says that the main issues in the American elections are usually internal, but with the possibilities of expanding war in the Middle East region and the warnings of President Biden and American intelligence of an imminent Iranian attack on Israel, they are likely to play a role. This issue will play a major role in the upcoming presidential elections.
Shawn said it was likely that the growing anger over the situation in the Middle East would cause voters to refrain from voting for Biden, but he believed that this would not be enough to tip the balance of the election in favor of Trump. He did not rule out that Trump would use any potential war in the Middle East as “an area to attack Biden’s policies.”
For his part, Michael Goyer Dyer, a British military historian and expert on Middle East affairs, believes that if the American air forces intervene to support Israel in the face of any attack from Iran or its arms in the region, this will put the United States in a confrontation with Iran. He said: “If that happens, Biden will lose the elections in November, because he will have plunged the United States into another foreign war, while Netanyahu will continue in power waiting for his friend Donald Trump to return to the White House.”
“Catastrophic” repercussions
Demonstrations outside the Congress building in Washington calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, October 18 (AP)
Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst and former Middle East advisor to four US presidents, saw the trip of Central Command Commander Eric Kurella to Israel to help it coordinate a military strategy in response to the Iranian threat, coming at an extremely dangerous moment for the regional security and national security of the United States. He continued, in statements to the Daily Beast magazine, that while the Pentagon said that American military officials are closely monitoring the region, President Biden’s promise to provide strict support for Israel’s defense does not necessarily mean that the United States is obligated to launch joint retaliatory strikes on Iran, “because The last thing Biden wants is another open war in the Middle East. Riedel continued: “Biden almost certainly realizes that supporting Israel in launching a strike against Iran could be disastrous for his chances of re-election next November.”
Riedel stresses that even if the United States is drawn into a war with Iran, Americans will ask, “What will the American endgame be?” Will we occupy Iran? Will this push more American soldiers into a long war with high casualties? “And I think Joe Biden knows that.”
Opportunity for Trump?
On the other side of the American electoral equation, war does not seem to pose a major threat to Donald Trump.
Trump accompanied by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, September 2020 (AFP)
Douglas Shawn justifies this opinion with two issues: The first relates to Trump’s previous pro-Israel record, such as the decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem and the Abraham Accords. The second is related to his hard-line stances towards Iran, such as his withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement concluded by former President Barack Obama, and his imposition of a maximum pressure campaign on the Iranian economy, in addition to the American strike that led to the killing of the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani.
Therefore, Schoen and other observers believe that any new military escalation will give Trump the opportunity to criticize Biden’s policies in the Middle East region, and he will also continue to focus on the conflict to rally support among voters and increase anger among Biden’s base.
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2024-04-14 07:11:18
