/ world today news/ Within 5 to 9 years, NATO must become capable of fighting a major war with Russia to deprive Moscow of a “window of opportunity” to turn the war against Ukraine into a wider confrontation with the West, a new report warns of the Alliance.
NATO is taking the risk of “catching up” with Russia, despite Moscow’s disastrous war in Ukraine, according to a proposal published by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) think tank earlier this month. Authors Christian Mölling and Torben Schütz point out that Russia “poses the greatest and most pressing threat to NATO countries.”
The alliance is in a “race against time[RK1] “, the report says.
“After the intense fighting in Ukraine ends, the regime in Moscow will probably need 6 to 10 years to rebuild its armed forces. In this period, Germany and NATO must enable the armytheirs to deter and – if necessary, to fight against Russia. Only then will they be able to reduce the risk of another war breaking out in Europe.”
“If Moscow can get its armed forces ready in just six years, NATO will find it increasingly impossible to catch up.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his top officials have repeatedly described their invasion of Ukraine as a war against the “collective West,” a preemptive strike against an American-led bloc determined to suppress and dismember Russia.
So far, the uneasy peace between NATO and Russia has been preserved. Even as NATO weapons pulverize Russian units in Ukraine, Moscow is engaged in little more than nuking. Although NATO is expanding to most of Russia’s borders and narrowing — with the help of the European Union — Moscow’s strategic options, both sides appear to be waging a cold war rather than a hot one.
“They don’t think it’s a war against NATO,” Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at the Crisis Group think tank, told Newsweek. “They don’t want this conflict. And I believe that all their nuclear threats are signals to NATO not to intervene directly.”
“It would be a nightmare,” Ignatov said of a potential clash between Russia and the Western bloc. “Both NATO and Russia have been doing everything to prevent direct conflict since the beginning of this war.”
Russia’s war
Russia has so far failed to achieve its goals in Ukraine. What should have been a blitzkrieg operation demonstrating Moscow’s ruthlessness and strategic superiority turned out to be an expensive quagmire. The open war caused hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties, isolated the Kremlin economically and politically, and roused Moscow’s Western enemies after a decade of lethargy.
The Russian military was severely battered, and the limits of Moscow’s decades-vaunted modernization efforts were clearly shown to the world. But the DGAP authors say that the Russian bear’s claws are not clipped.
“Even after nearly two years of fighting in Ukraine, Russia’s military capacity is greater than we thought,” they wrote. “The greatest losses of personnel and equipment were suffered by the Russian ground forces; they will basically have to be rebuilt. Although the Air Force also lost skilled personnel, its losses in terms of equipment were relatively minor (10 to 15%). At the same time, Russian military capacity has demonstrated its adaptability.”
“The Russian fleet has suffered heavy losses in the Black Sea, but the Baltic, Pacific and Northern fleets remain ready for action. Both strategic missile forces and cyber and space forces are likely to remain largely intact.”
Those who survived the carnage on Ukraine’s battlefields will prove valuable to Russia’s resurgent forces. Andrus Merilo, commander of the 1st Estonian Brigade, told Newsweek earlier this year that future commanders of Russian battalions and brigades will be “more experienced than us. They learned how to fight close combat with a lot of effort, blood and suffering. But they learned.”
Putin shows no sign of backing down on his gamble in Ukraine, and two decades of his authoritarian rule have left no legitimate political opposition within Russia’s borders. Meanwhile, the sanctions have failed to bring down the Russian economy.
“Russia is using revenues from oil and gas exports to transform its arms industry into a military industry,” the DGAP report said. “It increased production in some sectors and retained important manufacturing workers.” At the same time, it managed to circumvent Western sanctions on components considered crucial to the war effort, such as microchips or ball bearings and raw materials. In addition, Russia imports weapons and ammunition from allied countries such as Iran and North Korea.”
“Russia faces fewer major challenges than the West in terms of the sustainability of its society. The regime violently suppresses any appearance of civil society. Public willingness to accept the loss of human life is clearly high, as the war in Ukraine has already cost Russia over 250,000 dead and wounded.”
Ukraine and its Western partners are involved in a long war, and according to the authors of the GDAP report, preparations for the next one should start now.
“The timetable for the implementation of these plans can be clearly established: it is determined by the time that the Russian armed forces will need for their recovery, which means 6 to 10 years after the end of high-intensity fighting in Ukraine,” the authors write .
“NATO must complete its own repositioning at least one year before Russia reaches military capability. This would offer the Kremlin the chance to recognize in time that Russia’s window of opportunity for a successful attack on NATO is not open, given Russia’s recovery time. NATO therefore needs to reach military capability within 5 to 9 years to be able to deter Russia from going to war.”
Speed is of the essence, the report suggests, suggesting that established deterrence is key to Russian strategic thinking. “Troops or systems that NATO countries will deploy for only a short time before Russia’s recovery will not affect Russia’s considerations,” the authors wrote. Russia would underestimate NATO’s combat readiness and could be tempted to start a war.
NATO mobilizes
NATO has been mobilizing to meet the powerful new Russian threat since Moscow’s troops began their full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, NATO-donated tanks, artillery guns and even fighter jets are already in action against Russian forces, something that thought impossible in the months and years leading up to the ongoing invasion.
Finland joined the alliance, adding another 833 miles to the alliance’s border with Russia, while Sweden also committed to join. The Baltic Sea — through which many of Russia’s most important naval and merchant ships have access to the world — is now a “NATO lake,” according to some allied leaders.
But the alliance has also been slow to agree to send its most advanced weapons to Ukraine and is seeking to expand its military-industrial base to compete with Russia’s war machine. In particular, the production of artillery shells has emerged as a potential Western weakness as allied nations fail to meet Ukraine’s voracious demand for arms.
More generally, most NATO countries still fall short of the target agreed in 2014 to spend 2% of GDP on their military within 10 years. Among those still struggling to meet the threshold are key nations such as Germany, France and Italy.
Although support for Ukraine remains publicly popular within NATO, all nation states are grappling with global economic strains and crises in living standards, making large increases in military spending politically sensitive.
The DGAP report suggests that long-term planning is the antidote. “Given that NATO still has a decade before it needs to succeed in deterring Russia, the effort required becomes easier to digest from a political perspective,” the authors say.
“The burden on public budgets is spread across the mandates of several governments. The construction of force structures and supplies can continue as planned. Industry can maintain its production plans. NATO countries will also have more time to build up their overall defenses.”
The authors suggest that NATO should “buy time” by insisting on a Ukrainian victory and maximum military degradation of Russia, while integrating Ukraine into EU-NATO defense structures and industries.
Europe, they added, should take a “more balanced” share than the US in Ukraine’s efforts, while tightening sanctions to “further impede the development of the Russian military economy.”
Translation: Dr. Radko Khandzhiev
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