The popularity of Volodímir Zelenski falls after the dismissal of the popular commander in chief Valery Zaluzhni and amid the dearth of good news from the front, while a majority supports the decision not to hold the presidential elections during the war, which should have taken place a week ago.
63% of Ukrainians continue to support Zelenskyaccording to a survey by the sociological group ‘Rating’ published this week, which represents a drop of almost 30 percentage points compared to February 2023, when 91% of those surveyed approved of his management.
The decline began last October, probably due to disappointment with the results of the summer counteroffensive of Ukrainedice a EFE the president of the kyiv International Institute of Sociology, Volodímir Paniotto.
In his opinion, support for Zelensky was reduced by another five points in February, after the cessation of Zaluzhniwhich had become the embodiment of the early victories of the Ukrainian Army, gaining the trust of 94% of the population, according to data from the Institute.
Future developments will be determined by the situation on the battlefield, he believes Paniotto.
“If nothing changes, support levels are likely to decline very slowly. But major losses or wins can quickly push them in either direction,” he explained.
But for now the majority of Ukrainians maintain “stable confidence” in Zelenskyhe stressed.
No elections during the war
The decision not to hold the presidential elections has hardly sparked internal debate in Ukraine and Ukrainians are “very clearly against” wartime elections, according to Paniotto.
The first round should have theoretically occurred a week ago, on March 31. But since martial law prevents elections from being held, they have been postponed.
“The vast majority, more than 80%, support this,” he says. Paniotto.
If the elections had been held, millions of Ukrainians would have been deprived of the possibility of participating, which implies that the legitimacy of the elected president would have been less and not more, he argues.
Despite Russian attempts to use the lack of elections as evidence that Ukraine slides towards dictatorship, support for democracy has strengthened during the invasion, he also emphasizes.
An indicator of the divergent trajectories of Russia and of Ukraine In that sense are the opinions about the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, says the sociologist.
In 2014, before the Russian intervention in the Donbas and the annexation of Crimea, 23% of Ukrainians and 28% of Russians viewed Stalin positively, but the percentage has since fallen to 5% among the former while it has risen to 60% among the latter.
“I see no reason to believe that democracy is currently threatened in Ukraine“he stressed Paniotto.
No possibilities for “old politicians”
Clearly, Zelensky It takes sociological factors into account when making political decisions, the president of the International Institute of Sociology also indicated.
“It is likely that it took him so long to remove Zaluzhni because he wanted to avoid creating a powerful political rival,” he said.
For now, Zaluzhni has shown no signs of wanting to get involved in politics and has accepted his appointment as ambassador to the United Kingdom.
However, to some extent political confrontation has re-emerged in Ukraine.
The mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klitschkoold rival of Zelenskywarned in December in an interview with ‘Der Spiegel’ that Ukraine risks becoming like Russia, “where everything depends on the whims of one man,” in a thinly veiled criticism of the Ukrainian president.
The one who used to be the main opponent of ZelenskyThe ex-president Petro Poroshenkohe said this week in an interview with ‘Al Jazeera‘that he would participate again in the next presidential elections.
However, Paniotto believes that the “old politicians” do not have great electoral prospects; Support for Poroshenko is at most between 10 and 15%, “due to the lack of alternatives,” he said.
Politicians may try to attract popular figures from the volunteer or military sphere to their parties to increase their support. “By themselves, it does not seem that the ‘old politicians’ have any chance,” the sociologist stressed. EFE
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