Understanding Migration Flows: The Role of Economy and Policy Choices

Anyone who wants to understand migration flows cannot ignore the economy. And anyone who wants to adjust migration should also look at economic policy choices, and not just at maximum numbers or passport procedures. This is shown by a new study by the Central Planning Bureau.

The CPB report appears at a time when four right-wing parties – PVV, VVD, NSC AND BBB – are negotiating for a cabinet that will want to limit immigration. Already during the election campaign, there was plenty of discussion about ways in which immigration could be reduced through politics. There was little room in those discussions for the determining role of the economy.

The CPB puts an end to this in a tightly constructed story. One, immigration has boomed in the past twenty years and has become virtually the sole driving force behind current population growth. Two: labor migration and the associated family migration are responsible for that increase. The numbers of asylum migrants are smaller, although they ultimately stay in the Netherlands longer. And three: the economy determines which migrant worker comes here.

“I think it is underestimated how much migration is linked to the economy,” says CPB economist Gerdien Meijerink, one of the researchers who contributed to the report. This is not only about whether the economy is doing well and there is a shortage of workers, but also about political choices.

Flexible labor market invites

In other words: to explain why the number of immigrants in the Netherlands has increased rapidly since this century, you also have to look at issues such as dismissal protection. Because it is flexible labor rules, such as the expansion of options for flexible work and lower thresholds for dismissal, that make it attractive for employers to bring foreign staff to the Netherlands.

This is a sensitive observation for the forming parties. Of the negotiating foursome, VVD and BBB would prefer to spare labor migration when reducing migration numbers. Entrepreneurs and farmers often depend on this group for low-skilled and low-paid work. PVV and NSC see the numbers of labor migrants as undesirably high.

Moreover, the CPB report makes it clear that it is precisely the flexibilization of the labor market, a VVD spearhead, that has significantly contributed to the popularity of the Netherlands among labor migrants and has led to a higher migration balance.

Based on international studies, the Planning Bureau has established that a lower level of dismissal protection leads to a higher migration balance. A broader social safety net does not have that effect. Or: not anymore. In the 1970s and 1980s, this led to guest workers settling permanently in the Netherlands, but since then access to social services has tightened. The CPB also found no evidence for the statement that the economy influences the scale of asylum migration.

Poor predictions of numbers of migrants are a recurring pattern in history. When the European Union expanded in 2004, the CPB itself counted on several thousand additional long-term labor migrants and an unchanged number of seasonal workers of approximately 10,000.

Instead, demand exploded. Long-term labor migration already amounted to 25,000 in 2008 and the number of seasonal workers had even increased to 100,000 in 2010, the Planning Bureau now concludes. “The dynamics of open borders within the EU were greatly underestimated.”

Dying

Another historical lesson from the CPB study is that governments paid little attention to the future development of the economic sectors that attracted immigrants. The guest workers of the 1960s and 70s often went to work in the textile industry and mining, two sectors that were on the verge of death ten years later, resulting in high unemployment among the permanently settled guest workers.

Such a scenario could occur again if the government is not careful. “Attracting migrants to professions with a labor shortage offers a temporary solution, but when it comes to professions where demand is likely to decline within a few years, this is a risky strategy,” the CPB study reads.

The authors do not mention any sectors by name, but frequently mentioned buyers of migrant workers can be found in distribution centers, slaughterhouses and agricultural and horticultural areas, such as Westland. “The precise nature of the professions that will be in demand is difficult to predict,” the CPB said. “It is therefore advisable to ensure the long-term employability of migrants, so that they can be easily trained for other professions in the future.”

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Westland is economically dependent on migrant workers. Why did Wilders become the biggest here?

Make choices

With the emphasis on economics as an influential factor behind migration, the CPB report joins a list of recently published studies. The report published in January on the demographic future of the Netherlands by a committee led by Richard van Zwol, now active as one of the informants, also encouraged people to think about the organization of the economy as a factor in the migration debate.

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‘The Netherlands is already one of the smallest and busiest countries, we cannot continue like this’

According to research by migration expert Hein de Haas, migration is almost inevitable if the economy needs extra workers. „It’s the economy stupid“That also applies to migration,” De Haas said last year NRC.

The CPB does not recommend pursuing more or fewer migrants, Meijerink emphasizes, but does call for choices. “If you want less migration, you have to take into account that there will also be fewer workers. The other way around: if you don’t want to change anything in the economy, you have to accept that labor migration is part of it. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.”

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2024-04-08 20:45:08
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