/ world today news/ The conflict between the political and military leadership of Ukraine entered a new stage – regional. According to some reports, Vladimir Zelensky has forbidden the heads of regional administrations to contact Valery Zaluzhny. What dictates this decision and how can the confrontation between Zelensky and Zaluzhny develop in the future?
The Cabinet of Vladimir Zelensky asked the heads of the regional administrations to stop all communication with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny. As reported by Ukrainian journalist Yury Nikolov, the purpose of the decision is not to create excitement around the general, but it is seen as “a move by Zelensky’s team to destroy a potential competitor.”
“It is precisely the Presidency that creates splits out of the blue, because the “residents” are afraid of losing their immunity. They are waging their own struggle for the survival of their entourage,” Nikolov wrote on his Facebook page. He also asked the question: “Why does Zelensky himself need this?” Rich, young, free. After the war, he can go where he wants and do what he wants. Well, people will decide to move on without you in charge, why bother?”
He also referred to an article in the Economist magazine that “diagnosed” the inter-elite squabbles in Ukraine and suggested that Russia would take advantage of the current division. The publication also said that “the open conflict within the Ukrainian government is the predicted result of a counteroffensive operation that did not go according to plan.”
“Politicians say their generals are idiots, taught by the Soviet regime. And the generals say that the politicians are morons who get in their way. Victory has many fathers, but no one wants to be responsible for the impasse”, is how one of the magazine’s interlocutors in the Ukrainian government describes what is happening.
According to the magazine, Zaluzhny is now not only at the center of public criticism, but also appears as a witness in the investigation of the “surrender” of the southern part of Ukraine. The publication’s interlocutors note that the possibility of criminal charges “is designed to keep him in line.” As a result, such a conflict makes Ukraine “unstable”.
We remind you that the public aggravation of relations between Zelensky and Zaluzhny began in mid-autumn. The reason for this was Zaluzhny’s essay in “The Economist”, where he stated the inability of the VSU to achieve a “beautiful breakthrough” and, as a consequence, a transition to the “positional phase of the war.” Zelensky disputed this opinion of the commander-in-chief, and his cabinet accused Zaluzhny of provoking panic in the West.
The New York Times later wrote about Zaluzhny’s “undermining of authority” due to the fact that Zelensky fired the head of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, Viktor Khorenko, bypassing standard procedure and the commander-in-chief. In mid-November, the Rada was already blaming Zaluzhny for the failure of the counteroffensive. After a while, Zelensky stated that it was a “big mistake” for the military to engage in politics.
After that, the famous deputy of the Rada and “black mouth” Mariyana Bezuglaya intervened in the case, who called on the commander-in-chief to resign, since he did not provide a military plan for 2024 and unjustifiably wanted to mobilize 20 thousand Ukrainians per month. Her statements caused a serious scandal in Ukraine, but a few days later she continued her criticism of Zaluzhny. In particular, Bezuglaya revealed the management structure of the VSU and accused the commander-in-chief that his deputies duplicated the functions of the military from the general staff. The MP also listed those responsible for the cities lost by Ukraine.
Thus, the commander of the United Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergey Naev was responsible for Mariupol, the commander of the Ground Forces and commander of the “Khortitsa” troop group Alexander Sirsky was responsible for Artyomovsk, and the commander of the Tavrii troop group, Alexander Tarnavsky, was responsible for Avdeyevka, where the fighting is currently taking place.
It should be noted that Naev is part of the so-called general faction of Zaluzhny, and Sirsky has his own separate “faction”. And in this connection, it is worth recalling that the contradictions between Sirsky and Zaluzhny appeared during the battles for Artyomovsk. Sirsky, at Zelensky’s request, is believed to have continued to fight in and around the city, contrary to Zaluzhny’s position. Sirsky later came under fire from the Western media, or rather the Pentagon, for misdeploying troops, ignoring the advice of Western allies, and “burning” the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass.
In addition, there have long been rumors in Kiev that Zelensky sees Sirsky as a counterweight to Zaluzhny, but the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces still has growing popularity, while the commander of the Ground Forces, on the contrary, has consistently lost all his battles with Russian generals this year.
Thus, Zelensky finds himself in a curious situation: in the West he is increasingly accused of the failure of the counter-offensive and is demanding elections. Zelensky himself does not want to hold elections, but if they are to be held, then Zelensky must destroy his competitors, especially from the military environment.
According to a number of experts, it is this that can explain the strange death of Zaluzhny’s assistant and the no less strange poisoning of Mariana Budanova, the wife of the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kirill Budanov. Thus, potential opponents of Zelensky receive clear signals that they should not engage in politics.
On the other hand, some representatives of the regional elites tend to support the commander-in-chief. For example, the former commander of the defense of Mykolaiv, Major General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmitry Marchenko, on the air of the Ukrainian Fifth Channel expressed a desire for Zaluzhny to run for president. Marchenko himself will join his team.
“Currently, the conflict between Zaluzhny and Zelensky has reached a new level. According to sociological surveys, the rating of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is higher than that of Zelensky. Therefore, the latter fears that the general may win the elections, which the West insists on holding,” said political scientist Larisa Shesler.
She recalled that in Ukrainian politics, regional authorities have always had a great influence on the results of elections. Informally, the heads of the regional administrations in the executive branch are responsible for the work of the election commissions, monitor the voting process and the counting of the results. Here, the CEC’s influence is minimal.
“That’s why Zelensky is trying to completely exclude Zaluzhny’s contacts with representatives of the regional elites, in order to exclude their collusion with the general,” the interlocutor notes. “Zelensky also understands that local elites have always been corrupt and duplicitous. They are always ready to lie down under the strong. Therefore, it is important that the current leader of the country maintains control over the regions,” she emphasizes.
As for the further course of the conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, it will be determined by the West. For example, one of the NATO generals already stood up for Zaluzhny and told the Ukrainian media that the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces does have some kind of military plan for 2024, “but its implementation is an extremely difficult task, even taking into account the aid that Ukraine receives”.
“It is clear that the West is unhappy with the scale of corruption in Ukraine, the progress of reforms and the outcome of the military campaign. In such conditions, both Europe and the USA can rely on the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, attributing all failures to Zelensky and the political leadership of Ukraine,” the political scientist admits.
“With the removal of Zelensky, Western politicians will justify themselves to their voters, who must somehow explain why the war with Russia, for which colossal money was spent, is failing. That is why Zelensky is now looking for arguments to maintain his positions, but the final decision on this conflict will depend on the political processes in Europe and the USA”, summarizes Shesler.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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