/ world today news/ The Central Bank lowered the dollar rate on March 30 to 86.28 rubles
The Russian ruble, which last week began to recover its positions against the dollar and the euro, continues to rise. According to experts, this is facilitated by the decision to refuse payments for Russian gas in foreign currency. On Tuesday, on news of the results of Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul, the dollar fell below 83 rubles for the first time since February 25, and the euro fell below 93 rubles. What will happen to the Russian currency next – in the material of Gazeta.Ru.
How did the rate drop begin?
The exchange rates of the dollar and the euro jumped against the ruble after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation. In the course of trading on the stock exchange, the value of the American currency rose to 120 rubles, the currency of the Eurozone – to 127 rubles.
Last week, the situation on the stock exchanges began to change, after the news of the transfer of gas contract settlements to rubles, the Russian currency consolidated below 100 rubles. for a dollar. On Tuesday, March 29, the dollar fell below 83 rubles during trading for the first time since February 25. At 15:57 Moscow time, the dollar was worth 82.95 rubles, which is 7.57% lower than the previous day’s closing level.
As of 18:35 Moscow time, the dollar slowed down to 85.39 rubles, the euro fell to 94.2 rubles.
The central bank lowered the official rate of the dollar for Wednesday, March 30, to 86.28 rubles, the rate of the euro to 96.01 rubles.
What did the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance do?
On February 28, the Bank of Russia sharply raised the key rate from 9.5% to 20% to stabilize the situation and protect Russians’ savings from depreciation. This is a record increase in the indicator both in terms of the final value (20% – this is the highest key percentage for the entire time of its existence) and in terms of the step taken – the percentage has increased more than twice.
On March 18, the Central Bank kept the rate unchanged, warning that “the Russian economy is entering a phase of large-scale structural adjustments” that will be accompanied by a “temporary period of elevated inflation.” The regulator hopes inflation will reach 4% in 2024. The central bank has not yet released a new inflation forecast for 2022, but analysts say it could accelerate to 20%.
The regulator also banned foreigners from selling Russian securities. The brokers were ordered to send a report on the suspension of operations to the Central Bank within five working days. The Central Bank’s instruction is designed to reduce the withdrawal of capital from the country, since non-residents can no longer sell shares and bonds for rubles and exchange them for foreign currency.
Another measure to stabilize the exchange rate of the ruble was the decision of the Ministry of Finance on February 28 to obligate the sale of 80% of foreign exchange earnings owed to residents under all foreign trade agreements.
The requirement was retroactively extended to foreign exchange receipts for the first two months of the year (January 1 to February 28). According to the analysts of VTB Capital, if the measure is valid until the end of the year, the amount of the mandatory sale of the foreign currency earnings of the companies will exceed 400 billion dollars.
The dollar and euro were also hit by the March 23 decision to switch gas contracts to rubles, with President Vladimir Putin demanding the transition be completed by March 31.
The new version of payments for raw materials will affect “unfriendly countries”, which include the US, Canada, Japan and European countries.
Despite the fact that both the G7 countries and the European Union have already said that they do not agree to pay in rubles, the Kremlin is insisting and developing a “clear and feasible” scheme for payment in Russian currency itself.
“Foreign companies need to understand the changed market conditions and the absolutely changed situation that actually arose in the conditions of the economic war that is being waged against the Russian Federation,” the press secretary of the president, Dmitry Peskov, commented on the situation today.
How can the course be changed?
Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on stock markets at BKS Mir Investments, believes that the rejection of dollar contracts and the transition to ruble contracts will continue to help the ruble grow. In addition, low imports, high prices in commodity markets, a “freeze” of trading on the Russian stock exchange for non-residents and a reduction in the flow of foreign currencies can make the Russian currency stronger.
Yuriy Tverdokhleb, associate professor at the Department of Regulation of Financial Institutions at RANHiGS, noted that the market ignored the statements of the G-7 and the EU about the refusal to pay in rubles. “Words are words, but there are real economic relations… If such a trend develops, then our Western partners will have to, whether they like it or not, acquire rubles and pay with them. And this is one of the factors for these sentiments, which lead to the strengthening of the Russian currency,” the expert said on the air of Radio Sputnik.
German Klimenko, chairman of the board of the Fund for the Development of the Digital Economy, agreed with him: “Now we are butting heads: we say, ‘Pay in rubles,’ they will say, ‘No. How this story will end is hard to say. But if we take the behavior of the ruble as an indicator, then the majority of investors believe that Europe will start paying the way we want.
Sergey Suverov, an investment strategist at the AriCapital management company, believes that if Russia manages to convince the Europeans to pay for gas supplies in rubles, the dollar can be fixed at around 85-90 rubles. “We see that geopolitical risks are still high. There are also risks of introducing new sanctions, so I do not predict the return of the ruble to the level of February this year, “said the expert to Kommersant.
According to Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst in the global research department of Discovery Investments, the ruble can return to the levels observed before the current geopolitical crisis if the situation in foreign policy improves and if the country abandons the storage of reserves in dollars and euros.
Without external pressure, the ruble could trade at a level of 55-65 per dollar, and the transfer of exports to rubles is quite capable of returning the exchange rate to values of around 70 rubles. for a dollar, says Kochetkov. Meanwhile, according to him, we can only expect stabilization of the exchange rate in the region of 80-90 rubles. for $1.
Translation: ES
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