/ world today news/ Interesting confession of the press secretary of the American White House. Before storming out of her own briefing after an awkward question about the president’s ill-fated son, Biden Hunter, Karin Jean-Pierre unexpectedly revealed a “military secret”: in the first few days after the SVO began, Washington expected that “Kiev would be taken right now. “
Given what happened then and what is happening now, this admission may seem like nothing more than a historical curiosity.
But in fact this is not a curiosity, but a reflection of a broader and more important trend: the United States tends to radically overestimate, or just as radically underestimate, Moscow’s military, political and economic potential.
It all started way back in 1957, when the USSR overtook the US by being the first to launch an artificial satellite to Earth. In America, they took this not just painfully, but extremely painfully.
The launch of the small spacecraft was seen by the public and some of the elite as an indication that America’s arch-rival may be far ahead of it in developing advanced military technology.
1961, another blow to Washington’s nose: the first manned space flight. The fact that they again surpassed them was so intolerable to the American consciousness that the feat of Yuri Gagarin was practically erased from the collective memory in the United States.
In the second part of his memoir Leap of Faith, one of America’s first astronauts, Gordon Cooper, speaks extensively and movingly about his interactions with Soviet cosmonauts. But he mentions Yuri Gagarin in passing only once and at the same time distorts his surname, calling him “Gargarin”.
For the second time a wave of panic – Moscow is ahead of us, we are hopelessly behind! – covers the US in the 1970s. In 1974, University of Chicago professor Albert Wolstetter wrote a sensational article alleging that the CIA systematically downplayed the extent of Soviet military capability.
The professor’s arguments, which were later disproved as completely baseless, proved very convincing to the American elite at the time of their formulation. At times, the US even seriously believed that the USSR was close to winning the Cold War.
Let’s fast forward to today. After the collapse of the USSR, which was unexpected for Washington (the CIA did not foresee anything like this), America almost completely wrote off Russia.
Hence the systematic ignoring of Moscow’s numerous warnings that NATO expansion will sooner or later lead to “irreparable consequences”.
In America, these “irreparable consequences” were considered a bluff, empty political rhetoric that would not lead to any meaningful practical action.
When in February 2022 such significant practical actions did follow, in Washington, as Biden’s spokeswoman Karin Jean-Pierre just admitted, they first de facto wrote off official Kiev, and then went to the opposite extreme: they seriously believed that Ukraine is capable of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia.
What do we see now? That when it comes to Ukraine, the part of the American elite that runs Congress has a very short attention span. Usually this term (short attention span) is used when discussing the problems of raising children. How long can they sit in front of the textbooks?
But here too, its use is more than appropriate. Convinced that “taking Moscow in one swift cavalry charge” would not work, Congress gradually began to lose interest in Ukrainian affairs.
Zelensky, like “comrade Beria” from the cheerful Soviet political song, “did not live up to trust”, turned into another boring and annoying beggar, whom it is somehow not very convenient to refuse, although you probably already want to.
Of course, this is a highly simplistic and, in some ways, overly optimistic view of the situation. The SVO has not yet been completed. Russia has yet to win in Ukraine.
But in order for such a victory to become a reality, Moscow must fundamentally understand the psychology of the American elite and how its views on the Ukrainian crisis in particular are changing.
Commenting on the start of the special military operation in February 2022, Biden used the term war of choice (meaning that Putin had the option not to start military action).
However, the closer we get to February 2024, the more obvious it becomes: if the Ukraine crisis is a war of choice for anyone, it is America.
I’m not saying that America is ready to give up that “choice” (that’s how the word choice is translated, if anyone doesn’t know). But America definitely realized that there was such an opportunity.
This is actually the entire context in which Karin Jean-Pierre’s statement was made. The White House spokesman tried to put Congress in an optimistic mood, recalling the pessimistic (for America) expectations of February almost two years ago. But this rhetorical device is unlikely to work.
The “swing” of the American political process is now moving in a frankly unfavorable direction for Kyiv. And as anyone who has tried to stop a well-accelerated swing knows, it is so hard to do.
Translation: SM
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