The expansive cycle of meat production in Brazil and the weakness of domestic demand in Argentina will allow growth in beef exports from the Mercosur countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) in 2024.
According to projections and data collected by Faxcarne, the main beef supplier region to the world will place 4.82 million tons of carcass weight on the international market, about 160 thousand tons more (+3.4%) than in 2023.
The main arguments that explain the expectation of increased export volume are the expansive production cycle in Brazil and the greater Argentine exportable balance.
The expansion will take place in alternative markets to China, for which a moderate decline in trade flow is expected.
According to projections by the consulting firm Agrifatto, Brazil will produce 9.4 million tons of beef, of which it will export 3.01 million, an annual increase of 170 thousand tons (6%). The weakness of demand from China will cause sales to the main destination to grow by about 30 thousand tons (2%), below the global increase rate, while Brazil finds better placement conditions in alternative markets.
In Argentina, a decline in beef production is expected after the drought is behind us. However, this fall will be absorbed entirely by the domestic market, whose demand is impacted by the strong adjustment that Javier Milei’s government is carrying out. It is expected that exports will grow 5%, about 40 thousand tons, to 920 thousand tons. Exports to China, although they will continue to represent a very high proportion of the total, are expected to decrease by about 25 thousand tons to 640 thousand tons of carcass.
In Uruguay, production is expected to decline due to the reorganization of forage conditions and a decrease in the sending of cows to slaughter. The greater weight of the carcasses will partially compensate for the decrease in slaughter. Exports will fall by 2% to 490 thousand tons, with a greater impact (-8%) on shipments in China to 250 thousand carcass tons.
Finally, a drop in slaughter and meat production in Paraguay’s exporting meat processing plants is also forecast. Sales abroad would decrease by around 9% to around 400 thousand tons.
Extracted from: Agro del Sur and Faxcarne
2024-04-06 07:01:24
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