COAST GUARD SHIP KV BJØRNØYA: (Nettavisen): On Friday, the government presented its long-term plan for the Norwegian Armed Forces. Norway’s defense is to be strengthened by NOK 600 billion over the next 12 years (from 2024 to 2036). All the defense branches are to be strengthened with more people and new capacities.
The government will spend NOK 1,624 billion on Norway’s defense over the next twelve years.
Then the defense budget will be almost twice as large as it is today, measured in real kroner value, informs the government.
Sverre Diesen, who is former chief of defense and chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI), describes the initiative as commendable.
– It is clear that the government considers the security policy situation to have radically worsened, and it is taking the consequences of that. It is commendable, says Diesen to Nettavisen.
– There is a combined effect of Russia throwing off the mask and showing what kind of actor the country really is, at the same time with a greater possibility than just a year ago for Trump to become president again. It creates uncertainty about the USA’s future involvement in NATO and Europe, says Diesen.
– Given our dependence on the USA, the government is of course keen to meet the American expectations for strengthened European own efforts, he says.
Diesen refers to the rearmament as completely unique in the Norwegian context.
– You have to go all the way back to the rebuilding of the Armed Forces after the Second World War to find something similar, he says.
The “peace gains” went too far
After the government’s proposal for a long-term plan was presented, Nettavisen asked Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram (Sp) what he thought about the defense investment during the 10-15 years before the Center Party took over the Ministry of Defence.
He replies that it was natural to prioritize defense after the Cold War.
Gram calls it a “peace gain” where more money could be spent on other things. But it went too far, he believes.
– We must state that the downsizing went too far. The defense has become too unrobust. It’s too thin. There is a lot of good in Forsvart, but volume and ability matter here, says Gram and adds:
– I wish that some things had progressed further when we entered the ministries. For example, that they did not start earlier with increasing educational capacity. It takes a long time. We have rushed to take in everything we can at the military schools, for example, says Gram, who also believes that the building mass of the Armed Forces has been neglected for a long time.
– What are you going to do with as many as 4,500 new conscripts every year?
Diesen says it is difficult to spot anything missing in the long-term plan.
– There are perhaps certain things for which it is not as easy to understand the rationale. For example, it is difficult to see what to do with as many as 4,500 new conscripts every year, when we practically do not use any of those we train today for more than a couple of months on the eve of their first service, says Diesen.
– Is the investment in air defense good enough?
– I would say that the investment in air defense is reasonable in relation to the whole. There are two purposes in this venture that are seizing the large resources, and there are surface vessels for the Navy and air defense. There are two important investments. Air defense is primarily important to protect the fighter aircraft bases and other crucial, important operational infrastructure, such as the Navy’s main base in Bergen, he says.
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Ståle Ulriksen is a researcher and teacher at the Norwegian Defense Academy/Naval School. He describes the long-term plan for the Armed Forces as a “good total package”.
– The first impression is that there is a lot of good here. This is quite a big lift of 600 billion a year, and they are following quite a lot of the advice, says Ulriksen to Nettavisen.
Ulriksen refers to the Defense Commission’s recommendations from last year and the Chief of Defence’s professional military advice 2023.
– It is also good that they do not settle at two per cent, but stretch towards three per cent in 2036. It shows that they take the task seriously. Not only to satisfy NATO’s requirements, but to achieve a proper and up-to-date defence, says Ulriksen.
– With this investment, there will be no accusations that Norway does not contribute to NATO, in relation to the requirement of two per cent of GDP, he says.
– But then there are certainly a number of things that can be criticized on a detailed level, points out Ulriksen.
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– Far too little air defense
He highlights the investment in air defense as the biggest weakness in the long-term plan.
– The biggest weakness is that there is far too little air defence. It is almost a year since the Defense Commission’s report and professional military advice came out, and it has been a really bad year for Ukraine, and we have seen how important air defense has been, says Ulriksen.
– The studies we are doing show that Russia is going to invest heavily in air defence, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones. So it is a weakness that we do not get more or less nationwide air defence, he says.
– But there is a doubling in NASAMS batteries, isn’t it?
– If you double from almost nothing, you only get a little. In 1990 we had 4 batteries with long-range air defense, 6 batteries with medium range corresponding to NASAMS and 31 batteries with short-range air defense. Today, we have two or three batteries with air defenses, says Ulriksen.
The government will prioritize the following main areas:
- Improve current defences: Correct critical deficiencies in current defences, including by increasing stocks of ammunition and materiel, maintaining buildings and important infrastructure, increasing the capacity to receive allies and employing more people.
- Invest in people in the Armed Forces: Until 2036, the government is planning for around 4,600 more conscripts, 13,700 more reservists and 4,600 more employees, and a major boost in skills.
- Significant maritime investment: The navy will get a minimum of five new frigates with anti-submarine helicopters, a minimum of five submarines and a standardized vessel class with up to ten large and eighteen smaller vessels. In kroner and øre, the strengthening of the Norwegian Navy is the biggest investment in this long-term plan.
- Strong strengthening of the Army and Home Guard with more combat power: The Army is developed from one to three brigades, one in Finnmark, one in Troms and a new Brigade South. It is also strengthened with long-range precision fire, more tanks, air defenses and helicopters for the Army and the special forces. The Home Guard is increased to a total of 45,000 soldiers.
- Historic investment in air defenses: The government will buy long-range air defenses that will protect against short-range ballistic missiles. In addition, the amount of the existing NASAMS air defense will be doubled, which will be improved to better protect against drones and missiles. Both the Air Force and the Army are getting more systems, and the current air defense systems are to be updated.
- Better situational awareness: Increase the ability to create a situational awareness with more monitoring, presence and control in our immediate areas, with the help of new vessels and development of satellite and drone capacity.
– A historic boost for the Armed Forces
Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre says in a statement that the government’s most fundamental task is to ensure safety for people in Norway.
– We need a defense that is adapted to the current situation and threat picture. This plan is a historic boost for the Armed Forces, and involves a significant strengthening of all defense branches, says Støre.
– Norway does not threaten anyone, and NATO does not threaten anyone. But we must have the ability to defend ourselves if crisis and war occur, and a strengthened defense here at home will be a deterrent against those who might wish to threaten our sovereignty, says Støre.
2024-04-05 15:12:25
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