Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have stepped up information operations to push Ukraine toward negotiations and make the West fearful and “self-restrained.”
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: Military analysts noted attempts Shoigu threaten France to curb support for Ukraine. Shoigu pretends to be interested in peace negotiations. It is part of a broader Russian information operation aimed at persuading Western countries to push Ukraine into unequal negotiations on Russia’s terms.
The Kremlin used this general information operation about escalation with NATO, targeting France specifically, following French President Emmanuel Macron’s calls for the West to increase the level and types of security assistance it sends to Ukraine.
Peskov stated that NATO and Russia are in “direct confrontation.” Thus, the occupiers will intensify existing information operations in order to force the West to self-restraint.
Peskov said on April 4 that relations between Russia and NATO had “slipped to the level of direct confrontation” and that NATO was “already drawn into the conflict around Ukraine.”
Peskov accused NATO of moving closer to Russia’s borders, likely referring to the recent entry of Finland and Sweden into the alliance, and said NATO was expanding its military infrastructure closer to Russia.
Military analysts have noted that Russian officials have long tried to portray NATO and the West as an existential threat to Russia to justify the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. For example, on March 18, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said that a full-scale war between NATO and Russia is undesirable, but possible.
Peskov’s repeated statements that NATO and Russia are already in “direct confrontation” are a reinforcement of this narrative, but are likely still part of a Russian reflexive control campaign that uses threatening language to delay and influence important decisions about Western support for Ukraine. This Kremlin narrative is also likely an attempt to portray NATO’s defense activities in response to overt Russian aggression as provocative.
Lavrov also promoted information operations, feigning interest in negotiations. Lavrov used a meeting of dozens of foreign ambassadors from non-Western states to condemn Ukraine’s “peace formula” while declaring that Russia was ready to negotiate on terms favorable to the Kremlin.
According to ISW, Russia continues to prepare for a potential war with NATO forces. The aggressors are carrying out military reforms, recreating the Leningrad Military District and the Moscow Military District in western Russia. Russian officials accused NATO of giving Russia an excuse to restore the LVO directly on the border with Finland.
Key ISW findings for April 4:
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said NATO and Russia are in “direct confrontation,” likely part of the Kremlin’s efforts to intensify existing information operations aimed at forcing the West to restrain itself.
- Chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, has called on members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to strengthen cooperation against perceived Western threats as part of efforts to counter the West.
- The Kremlin has used this overall escalation information operation with NATO to target France specifically, following French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent calls for the West to increase the level and types of security assistance it provides to Ukraine.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has also promoted information operations to feign interest in the negotiations, and the likely coordinated information efforts of Lavrov and Shoigu could signal a new round of increased Russian rhetoric regarding the negotiations.
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin continues to try to balance the Kremlin’s competing efforts to shape public expectations about Russia’s long military campaign and calm Russian public concerns about the economic fallout of the war and labor migration.
- On April 4, Russian troops carried out a mechanized attack in the direction of Chasovoy Yar (west of Bakhmut) and advanced to the eastern outskirts of the village.
- Russian troops have also recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Donetsk.
- An unnamed senior NATO official reportedly told Russian opposition publication Important Stories that NATO intelligence services had seen no signs that Russia was preparing for a large-scale wave of partial mobilization.
2024-04-05 01:41:08
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