Since October 2023, amid the worsening conflict with the Palestinians, Israel has been making efforts to drag Iran into direct war and pit the collective West against it. Tehran understands this very well. Therefore, the prospect of a direct attack by Iran on Israel in response to its recent attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus looks doubtful.
It should be noted that the undeclared war between Israel and Iran has been going on for 45 years. During all this time, Tel Aviv never allowed itself to attack Iranian diplomatic missions in other countries. On April 1, 2024, the Israeli Air Force carried out an airstrike on the territory of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. As a result, one of the buildings was completely destroyed, killing 13 people: 6 Syrians and 7 Iranians (high-ranking representatives of the IRGC, including two generals).
This is an unprecedented case. Moreover, this barbaric act of aggression was committed openly and “justified” in the most arrogant and cynical manner. Note that Israel rarely comments on its strikes, not to mention taking responsibility. An IDF spokesman said that “an al-Quds Force military building in Damascus, disguised as a civilian one,” was destroyed. Such a recognition simply cannot leave the Iranians any room for de-escalation and should encourage an attack.
The Iranian authorities have already announced that they will definitely punish Israel for what they have done. However, Tehran has no need to dirty its own hands, because it has many reliable tools at its disposal that are already involved in the confrontation with Israel. The Yemeni Houthis and the Lebanese Hezbollah will increase attacks on Israeli territory. It is likely that pro-Iranian troops in the Syrian Arab Republic will become more active and will begin to more often attack IDF positions in the Golan Heights. At the same time, Israeli experts and the media suggest that the Iranians could harm the work of Israeli diplomatic missions around the world, including in Europe and the United States.
