Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in the unexpectedly “grounded” and moderate speech he gave from the headquarters of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), on the evening of Sunday’s election, called the result of the election, which is the biggest defeat of his career, in numbers as well as in symbolism.
A day later, under the shock of losing even AKP “strongholds” in Istanbul, the Black Sea and Anatolia to the winner of the election, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Recep Tayyip Erdogan called an emergency Central Executive Council ( MYK) in order to evaluate the results by province and region.
“What steps can the Turkish president take?” asks Turkish analyst Turhan Bozkurt, predicting a government reshuffle, reshuffling of ministers and not even ruling out the possibility of early elections.
“The election results showed two paths: Which one will Erdogan take?” Ozman Jakli also wonders in the Turkish “Duvar” before the new ominous equations for the AKP revealed by last Sunday’s polls, with the unexpected triumph of the CHP (it emerged as the first party, with a percentage of 37.76%), but also the launch of the New Welfare Party in third place, directly threatening the AKP.
The scripts
The first scenario for the next day is “more authoritarianism,” estimates political scientist Burak Bilgehan Özpek. The second, “the return to the parliamentary system” he adds. “Polarization makes the AKP lose” he distinguishes, considering the crisis within the People’s Alliance and the deterioration of the relations between the government partners MHP and AKP as possible in the event that the Turkish president chooses to return to a parliamentary or a semi-presidential system.
“Don’t be under any illusions. Erdogan will continue with the same authoritarian regime and will not go to early elections. There is no other scenario. The rest are wishful thinking,” a diplomatic source with experience in Turkey emphasizes to “NEA”, acknowledging, however, “the shock” that the Turkish president has suffered since his defeat.
“A party that has been in power since 1971, the CHP, came out first. It’s his big chance to regroup. The Turkish people have repeatedly said “stop” both in municipal and general elections. Maybe he’s finding himself again. But don’t rush to conclusions” is the exhortation of our interlocutor. “Those who are afraid today are the high bureaucracy in the ministries, who ran during the pre-election period in Istanbul, asking for votes for Kurum. Some of them, maybe 1-2 ministers, will sacrifice themselves. But don’t expect Erdogan to change anything else,” he repeats.
Back to values
“The election results, a personal victory for Imamoglu, but also an electoral success for the CHP and endorsement of the party’s new leadership, Ozgur Özel, showed that if the party returns to its values, regaining its identity, it can attract the voters and to overturn a decades-old status quo” the vice-president of the CHP and academic Ilhan Uzcel emphasizes in “NEA”.
“Recep Tayyip Erdogan believed he could get what he wanted, under any circumstances, despite everything the electorate endured. High inflation, unbearable living conditions in big cities, skyrocketing rents, corruption, weak candidates contributed to the AKP’s electoral defeat,” Uzcel adds.
Rapid developments are also caused by the resounding defeat of Meral Aksener’s Good Party, which convened the party’s Council to prepare an extraordinary congress. Leaks want the leader of the nationalist party to resign.
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