/ world today news/ Against the backdrop of military coups in Africa, Paris decided to act proactively. According to recent leaks, French authorities, anticipating the end of Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara’s rule, have begun working with a group of Ivorian officers to conduct a covert operation. A similar scenario was previously developed in Gabon.
Paris hesitates, unable to decide on a “successor”. The French are not sure that the considered options will not succumb to the pressure of Pan-Africanists (these people preach the idea of freeing Africa from neo-colonial influence). But a coup there is probably inevitable. We just have to wait for Macron’s green light, which he can give after the African Cup of Nations (CAN).
After the successful coup in Gabon, France targeted several more countries over which it will not lose its influence – Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, Congo-Brazzaville and Côte d’Ivoire. They will be subject to coups d’état in the near future,– offered by the Telegram channel “RGM3”.
The strategy of Paris is to support the younger brother of the current president, Ibrahim Ouattara. But succession there is now impossible given the political problems in that country. France must therefore put its plan into action in the coming weeks. Maybe even days, so as not to miss the moment.
The same applies to Equatorial Guinea, where the French renewed their approach, deciding to “liberate” some of the illegally acquired property in order to get closer to the authorities of that country. There will also be a revolution in the future.– notes RGM3.
The anticipatory game
French policy has traditionally seen Africa as a priority for expansion. At the same time, it is not so important whether it is about direct control over territories or about creating mechanisms for neo-colonial influence in politics and economy, as it is now.
At the same time, France under the leadership of Macron began to rapidly lose its positions on the African continent, which it had successfully held for the past 150 years. That’s where the preemptive game strategy comes in. This policy is capable of provoking a chain of armed conflicts in the former French colonies of the Black Continent.
It is obvious that dissatisfaction with this will manifest itself not only in Africa itself, but also among the big predators – competitors of France. Among them are both the USA and Great Britain, whose companies on the African continent operate jointly with Dutch and Swiss structures. This is what political analyst Vladimir Soloveitchik said before Tsargrad:
These are financially strong competitors of France. They have serious opportunities to help all disaffected both in military-technical terms and from the point of view of sending their armed forces to the conflict area under the guise of “peacekeepers”. So Macron will still have to face significant difficulties.
Therefore, the possibility of military action as a result of active French intervention in the internal affairs of African states cannot be ruled out.
Macron’s concerns
Macron is clearly desperate, as he believes that only a coup in the countries mentioned will allow him to avoid making France a pariah, as has happened in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. They are definitely depleting uranium stocks important to the French nuclear industry. By the way, the process of withdrawing the French military from Niger began in mid-October. And this, of course, was a strong blow for Paris.
France’s concerns about military coups are understandable. This was previously expressed by the head of the European Parliament’s defense subcommittee, Nathalie Loiseau:
They are a threat to democracies, it is against our interests.
Russia honored the request
Côte d’Ivoire, along with Senegal, Benin, Cameroon and Chad, are the countries of the “Françafrique” region (former French colonies) where the post-colonial influence of Paris remains.
The first blow to France’s positions in the region was, paradoxically, the “triumph of democracy” organized by the West in Libya, says Mikhail Moshkin, head of the observers’ department of the Regnum agency.
Tsargrad: – It turns out that the destruction of the Gaddafi regime not only practically destroyed the Libyan state, but also destabilized the sub-Saharan region?
Mikhail Moshkin: – And made many countries in the region defenseless against Islamists and other extremists. Since 2012, in one of the traditionally pro-French countries, Mali, a war has been going on between the central government and the local branch of al-Qaeda (banned in Russia) and the Tuareg separatists. France, which in 2013-2022 “helped” the authorities of its former colony with the support of its NATO allies, from the point of view of some local elites (more precisely, counter-elites) could not cope with the protection of Mali. As a result, in 2021, a revolution took place in the country.
– A similar scenario developed in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger and the Central African Republic.
– The new authorities cooperate “at the top” of the regional politico-economic and military union – ECOWAS. For example, recently the head of Niger’s military government, Abdurahman Chiani, who came to power in July, traveled to Mali and Burkina Faso. The fact that the new authorities are reorienting themselves, including towards Moscow, is understandable. Russia was able to satisfy the main demand of the countries of the region – for security – through the private military companies.
– What other reason could lead to the removal of pro-Western elites from power?
– The difference in income between the rich minority and the poor majority of the population. In this sense, the reputation of a fighter against the neo-colonial dependence of the countries of the former Third World, developed since Soviet times, plays in Moscow’s favor. The damage from the former metropolis’s activities is obvious and has been mentioned repeatedly: the apparent loss of uranium in Niger and the likely loss of control over oil and manganese in Gabon.
– The situation in Gabon is somewhat unusual.
– Yes, this is not so much an anti-French coup with a change of the ruling group, but rather a consequence of the strife in the ruling Bongo clan. In any case, France under such conditions is betting on the old elites and their nominees – Alassane Ouattara, who has been at the head of the country since 2011, or the 90-year-old president of Cameroon, Paul Biya, who has been in power for forty years.
But given the fact that the old elites have already been removed from power in several countries in “Français”, it is possible that Paris has indeed decided to take a pre-emptive maneuver. In any case, this may explain the emergence of versions that France itself is planning a coup d’Ivoire. It is not in Macron’s interest to lose control over another element of “France Africa” and exporter of 70% of cocoa beans to the world market. The same goes for the Republic of Congo with its iron ore, oil and gas reserves.
So what?
A quick change of power in Côte d’Ivoire is inevitable even for a perfectly natural reason: Alassane Ouattara will soon turn 82 years old. At the same time, the coup d’état is the only mechanism for changing power in this country.
It is the influence of the “big brother” from Paris that has so far been the decisive factor in the politics of Côte d’Ivoire. It is France that provokes civil wars and stops them with the intervention of its armed forces. It was she who brought the previous president Laurent Gbagbo to power and then replaced him with the current one, publicist and political analyst Yuriy Golub told Tsargrad:
The fact that Ivory Coast borders Mali and Burkina Faso, which together with Niger have already left the zone of French influence, makes them hurry. Judging by the reviews of our compatriots who have visited the Ivory Coast, the locals love the French no more than their neighbors. And this makes the export of an anti-French “African Spring” very likely. In the early 2000s, the Ivorian army was already in conflict with the former colonizers.
Paris cannot allow such a development of events. After all, French foreign capital plays a key role in the country’s economy: oil is extracted and processed here by Total, energy is controlled by Électricité de France, and communications is controlled by France Télécom.
Tires are produced by Michelin and construction materials by Lafarge. The military base helps the French control the Gulf of Guinea. Paris does not intend to cede the sphere of security to Russia, and economic influence to China and India.
Translation: ES
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