/ world today news/ When the representative of Iran, the Minister of Energy Ali Akbar Mehrabian, left the climate conference of the UAE (COP-28) because of the participation of Israel, it became clear that this was not an event of ordinary importance. Thus, Iran outlined its attitude to the violation of the truce and the resumption of brutal Israeli bombing of the Gaza Strip.
In general, Tehran hoped that in the format of this forum, representatives of at least the Islamic world would be able to discuss the Palestinian problem and the war in Gaza. It did not work out.
And what’s going on? Commenting on the situation, Moroccan writer and scientist Hassan Khourid wrote that “the world is on the threshold of a third ‘big explosion in Gaza’ and this will change the characteristics of the region whose ‘remarkable features’ are already ‘visible’.”
First, the Palestinian issue is back on the agenda of world politics. Second, this is happening against the background of a split in the Arab world, some of whose representatives maintain relations with Israel. Third: Gaza is becoming a “Pandora’s box” whose secret lid is open and a geopolitical redistribution of the entire Middle East is about to happen.
According to Urid, “the countries of North Africa, Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon are also in a nervous state. Because everyone began to realize that there was a decline in the role and influence of the United States in the Middle East,” which was “forced to reach out to its strategic rival, China, to put pressure on Iran so that the Houthis would stop sending their missiles to Israel and arresting Israeli ships in Bab-el-Mandebeh.” Without Gaza, this would not have happened.
Now let’s identify the first side signs of this phenomenon. Lebanese political commentator Johnny Mounir notes that French special envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian has delivered messages to Lebanon highlighting the issue of safety for French soldiers in UNIFIL due to the lack of renewal of the army commander’s authority amid the fighting in Gaza, which could led to the withdrawal of French troops from Lebanon.
At the same time, he notes the fact that Saudi Arabia is strengthening its position in Lebanon. In this regard, Paris proposes that in the forthcoming founding international conference on the Middle East, the introduction of “the Lebanese file together with the Palestinian one”, “which will change the political map of the region”.
Otherwise, according to Mounir, “Lebanon will not expect mercy.” Meanwhile, Israel and France formed a joint team to remove Hezbollah from the area bordering Israel. This is the first major step by France, which enjoys a special status in its relations with Lebanon.
Further on. Tehran is increasingly involved in the processes taking place in the region. But how? Iran and Saudi Arabia continue the so-called “Beijing consolidation”. Senior defense officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran discussed military cooperation between the two countries.
Commenting on this event, Bloomberg News wrote that “the war between Israel and the Islamic resistance movement Hamas is uniting the former adversaries.”
Bloomberg, citing the semi-official Iranian Students news agency, reported that Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman told Iran’s Chief of Staff Mohammad Hossein Bagheri that he “welcomes the increased level of cooperation between the two countries’ militaries,” without disclosing More details.
But there are important nuances. The Al Arabiya TV channel, citing a senior official in the kingdom, claimed that Riyadh had informed the US about its relations with Tehran.
As we can see, the contours show twists and turns in Middle East diplomacy by both Beijing and Washington, as well as Iran and Saudi Arabia, but for now at the situational level, but with some intermediate finalization of secret negotiation processes, chains of interconnected interests and solutions.
There seems to be good reason for the timing of such moves by Saudi Arabia and Iran. They are linked both to the events in Gaza and to the split in the US over Israel’s violation of the ceasefire, which was clearly demonstrated in the recent visit to Israel by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
Some analysts and experts agree that his visit to Tel Aviv before the war resumed was to “coordinate with the Israelis to focus this time on the southern part of the Gaza Strip.” This is not quite true.
In this regard, the Times of Israel writes that Blinken warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he “doesn’t have much time left,” although he understands that “Israel will continue its military operations, but the slaughter of civilians and displaced people that has occurred in northern Gaza “should not happen in southern Gaza.”
According to the same newspaper, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant, known for his sharp statements since the start of the war, responded to Blinken’s warning by saying, “The Israeli public will support us in destroying Hamas, even if it takes months.”
Blinken, in turn, told Gallant, “I don’t think you have enough credit to do that.”
But the fact is that the tense conversation between Gallant and Blinken is directly proportional to the information leaked to the American media about the end of the ceasefire in Gaza.
Thus, the United States marks changes in the course of the war in Gaza, but does not stop this war, and the battle of radicals with radicals continues. Israel may be winning the ground war in Gaza, but it is losing the geopolitical battle that will come after the guns fall silent and Israel realizes it has fallen into a trap.
For now, this is an imperative to which the Netanyahu government remains blind. But this time it will not be possible to avoid the creation of a Palestinian state.
As Turkish expert Burcu Özçelik writes in an article in The National Interest, “the plan for the ‘day after tomorrow’ in the Gaza Strip is being determined now. The Middle East will emerge from the war between Israel and Hamas profoundly changed and with a different Israel.
Translation: SM
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