Ukraine Struggles with Ammunition Shortages as Russian Attacks Continue: Bloomberg Report

Ukraine and its allies are losing the race to provide the ammunition Kiev’s military needs to stave off Russian attacks, reports Bloomberg.

The flow of Western military aid into Ukraine has dropped dramatically, according to allied officials briefed on the latest news from the frontline, and in places soldiers are producing as little as a round a day to conserve their dwindling supplies.

The situation has forced Kiev’s allies to try to keep supplies flowing by scrambling around the world for shells. But since the initiatives have been slow to materialize, it is unclear whether they will produce good enough results in the short term to keep Ukraine’s frontline stable.

This forced the Allies to try to continue supplies to Ukraine by searching the world for the shells. But since these initiatives have been slow to implement, it is unclear whether they will produce enough results in the short term to keep Ukraine’s front lines stable.

“Long-term commitment is important, but it is also a fact that the war will be won by the country with the most ammunition,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaia Kalas said in an email to the agency.

According to her, the Russian military industry works in three shifts, and supplies to Ukraine are rapidly decreasing. “Without our support, this war could be lost,” warns Callas.

Allies of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy are increasingly concerned that a possible new Russian offensive this summer could breach the defenses of the country’s Armed Forces (VSU), according to officials speaking on condition of anonymity.

The Russians are now firing seven times more shells than the Ukrainians, they add. This is more than double the figure in late January, when Kiev warned allies that the ratio was three to one.

The shortage persists despite a growing awareness among Western leaders of the cost of delay. They know it will cost more to defend NATO territory if Russia makes significant progress in Ukraine, according to an official familiar with the discussions.

That is why the country’s European allies are looking “far and wide” for ammunition. The Czech Republic is leading one initiative, and Estonia is preparing another.

The start of the week did bring some encouragement to Ukraine: more than $60 billion in US military aid could be unblocked. House Speaker Mike Johnson made it clear that he wants the funding to be approved “immediately,” although other top Republicans in the House of Representatives believe it has no more than a 50 percent chance of success.

The issues of ammunition shortages and the risk of a Russian offensive are likely to come to the fore when NATO foreign ministers gather in Brussels on April 3 to mark the 75th anniversary of the alliance’s founding in response to challenges emanating from the USSR during The Cold War.

Zelensky warned The Washington Post that without any help, Kiev’s troops would be forced to retreat and hand over territory to Russian troops.

“If you need 8,000 shots a day to protect the front line, and you only have 2,000 rounds, for example, you will have to fire less. How? Of course, by withdrawing and making the front line shorter,” he explained the president.

Ukrainian forces are repelling the Russian advance, digging trenches and erecting barriers to shore up the 2,000km front line. They have also adopted a new tactic, attacking more than a dozen oil refineries in Russia with explosive-laden drones in the past month.

This led to a reduction in Russian fuel production, which Zelensky said would continue despite US displeasure. A European official in the US stressed that Washington’s influence on the issue is diminishing with each passing day as US aid fails to materialize.

However, Russian strikes are also damaging Ukrainian infrastructure. The same official says that the damage done in the last few weeks is probably the worst of the entire war and will likely have long-term strategic consequences that will compound the effect of the ammunition shortage.

Estonia’s defense ministry estimates that Russia is expected to produce or refurbish around 4.5 million missiles this year. And that’s in addition to the munitions it gets from North Korea and Iran.

In contrast, the EU intends to produce just 1.4 million shells in 2024 and two million the following year. The U.S. is working to produce 1.2 million rounds by the end of 2025, but that effort also depends on Congress passing an aid package. European firms are partnering with Ukrainian companies to boost local production, but these efforts will also take time to bear fruit.

According to officials familiar with the situation on the battlefield, Ukraine’s supply of projectiles does not necessarily match Russia’s because the modern weapons systems it uses are more accurate than Moscow’s. And yet the indicators should be close, they are confident. Even increasing Ukraine’s percentage to three missiles for every seven fired by Russia would make a big difference, one explained.

With production ramping up in the US and Europe this year and next, supplies to Kiev should begin to stabilize, Western officials say. But the main problem is to bridge the gap till then.

2024-04-03 12:21:17
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