/ world today news/ The West has declared an economic war with sanctions in the hope of restraining the country’s economic development and provoking internal discontent. At best we change policy and/or oust Putin and replace him with German agent Navalny or British Khodorkovsky, at worst Galkin. There are also rumors of a Zelensky-style option with a Jewish clown for president. It happened in Kyiv. And in Moscow?
Let’s take a closer look at the sanctions themselves and their effect.
The first and strongest sanction, as they thought, was the blocking of the foreign exchange accounts of the Central Bank in the former reserve currencies. What are the reserves, if they can be blocked?
The expected effect was an exchange rate of 200 rubles per dollar. And even at first it worked. The rate quickly crept up.
In fact, the measure meant a ban on Siluanov and Nabiulina from buying currency for budget funds and depositing them in foreign banks. They have no intention of canceling it.
After all, it is currently 53 rubles to the dollar. Backfired.
The import of inflation stopped and prices began, albeit slowly, to fall.
In addition, the dollar and the euro began to be abandoned by our other economic agents, fearing a freeze. For Russia, the dollar and the euro have lost their investment function.
Credit agencies stopped doing ratings. Since Russia is a net exporter of capital, we do not need loans. And here the ball missed the goal.
It began blocking accounts and seizing yachts and villas of persons from Russia. Well, this is generally a powerful anti-corruption measure. Now there is simply no need to steal. Where will you invest this money? And the withdrawal of dividends in the West loses its meaning. Nobody buys yachts and villas. For what?
According to various estimates, such outflow of money amounts to an average of 100 billion dollars per year. We couldn’t stop him. And the sanctions solved the problem in 1 day.
An embargo on the supply of our goods to Europe in lumber, metals, coal, and more. Well, it’s just a struggle to get off the “raw needle”. And here there is a big plus. There was a proposal to ban the export of gold. They calculated on time. And in vain: I hoped so much.
The best sanction was to keep the Nord Stream 1 turbine from returning from repair, thus cutting off gas to Germany. Two big pluses.
Let’s move on. We got back “Moskvich”, “Avtovaz”, “IzhMash”, that is, the entire Soviet automobile industry, for 1 ruble. We returned them to excellent condition with quality control and new equipment. What can I say, they did not disappoint here.
We closed IKEA and freed up 20% of the market for our businesses. Effectively.
They embargoed the supply of Airbus, Boeing and spare parts for Sukhoi.
That’s great—that’s $10 billion a year in savings, which is exactly how much we spent a year on this nib.
I don’t understand these sanctions, who made them? It seems to me that when the intelligence brought to Moscow a forecast of what sanctions were expected, they decided to urgently start the special military operation.
We have dealt with the sanctions. Apparently, they were created in the Kremlin, and Biden only approved them. I don’t have any other versions.
Then consider the effect of the CBO itself. Geopolitical tensions have raised the price of all our traditional exports.
Expanding the number of users with residents of the liberated territories is definitely a plus for business.
The influx of cheap food and the strengthening of our position as the largest exporter of grain is certainly not hurting us. Restoration of the destroyed is basically a goldmine for builders and manufacturers of building materials.
How about furniture, fridges, TVs? They burned. They will buy new ones.
1.5+ million people arrived in Russia – this is the workforce and consumers. For a minute plus 1 percent of the population. Against the background of poor fertility, is this bad?
I will be very surprised if our economy does not jump at a vigorous pace in the near future.
Nominal GDP and dollar wages have already risen by tens of percent. This means that the same imports that customs are very sorry for will recover quickly enough. I am sure that the positive in the economy will improve in the fall.
According to the most conservative estimates, the effect for us is at least 250 billion dollars a year. This is eliminating capital outflows and unnecessary import positions, as well as increasing export prices.
That’s 13 trillion rubles at the current exchange rate, roughly 10% of current GDP, that’s exactly the loss of cooperation with the West. Therefore, the exchange rate of the ruble is not artificial, but real, and it can grow even more. And the economy itself will begin to grow quickly enough, as the processes are restructured.
Let’s move on to my favorite divination.
In 2023, we should exceed the level of the current year 2013, and in 2024 we will certainly exceed it. It is difficult to predict after 2023. I guess GDP will be 135 trillion rubles and this official figure will not change.
And the dollar exchange rate will remain at 52. The forecast is quite approximate, but indicative.
Where did we rank in the world before the CBO? The shameful 11th place. We weren’t even in the top ten, leaving behind such ridiculous countries as South Korea and Canada.
By 2024 we will have a GDP of $2700 billion, if not more, but as far as western countries go, I am not at all sure where they will end up. We will move to 5 or 6 if we overtake India in the world rankings.
If the ruble strengthens more and Germany falls, then we can count on 4th place. If there is no gas, Germany will surely fly to the bottom.
By looking at these numbers, you can see what the cost of our “collaboration” with the West has been. What are the dynamics when ties are broken
The forecast does not take into account the expansion of the country’s territory and population.
With the inclusion of all of Ukraine in our composition, in a few years the world’s economic leaders will look like this:
USA, China, India, Russia. Japan and Germany will fly to the bottom, Britain will not even be remembered. If it doesn’t fall apart at all. Our place will be 4th. The US may be first if the dollar survives or third if there are major problems with the dollar, it will be overtaken not only by China but also by India. Not from us either. We don’t have enough people.
Translation: V. Sergeev
#economic #prospects #Russia #today #effect #sanctions
