MILANO – The demographic winter is also coming to South Asia The scientific magazine Lancet relaunches a statistical study according to which in 2100 only 6 countries in the world would exceed the replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman. But already in 2050 India, Bangladesh and Pakistan would see current births drop by more than a third. Therefore, the demographic decline no longer concerns only the countries where well-being is more widespread. It is a global phenomenon, spanning every continent. And if it continues to proceed according to current dynamics, in 2100 only a few countries in the world will still reach a fertility rate to reach the so-called “replacement threshold”, to keep their population in balance.
Births are dropping dramatically globally. Supporting him is a new studio, based on statistical models, and published recently by the British scientific journal. It is a demographic analysis on the gigantic amount of data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study, realizzata dal Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation della University of Washington (and financed by Bill Gates Foundation). Precisely those scientific circles that have long shouted about the “demographic bomb”, therefore, today send out exactly the opposite message: births are drastically reducing on a global level.
The demographic dynamics of 204 countries. By combining thousands of studies relating to demographic dynamics in 204 countries with sophisticated systems, they certify not only that the fertility rate at a global level has halved in the last seventy years, falling from 4.84 in 1950 to 2.23 in 2021. But they also add that the decline will continue in the coming decades: according to the projections developed by combining the analyzes of maternity in the different age cohorts in each country, continuing with the current dynamics it would fall to 1.83 in 2050 and even to 1.59 in 2100.
The peak of births in 2016 and then the decline. Translated the absolute numbers: according to this study, births in the world reached their peak in 2016, reaching 142 million. In 2021 they have already fallen to 129 million. But if the statistical model were confirmed in the coming decades they would decline further, reaching 112 million in 2050 and (even) 72 million in 2100.
In Africa there are fewer births but the decline is slow, in Asia this is not the case. It is clear that longer-term estimates are exposed to very large margins of error. But the most interesting data from the research published by Lancet they concern the dynamics taking place in individual geographical areas. Because if on the one hand the slowdown (which exists) follows a slower pace in sub-Saharan Africa, the collapse in the birth rate in South Asia would make the difference in the coming years. According to these projections, countries such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are on track to very quickly match the low birth rates of Western Europe and the Far East. If in 2021 there were a total of 32 million births in South Asia, by 2050 they could already drop to 18.7 million.
The interesting fact about Bangladesh. The data for Bangladesh is particularly striking where the projection (also due to migration) is more than halved: the proposed scenario assumes 1.37 million new births compared to 2.8 million in 2021. And, more generally, the projections on the fertility rate show a curve for South Asia that would end up even below that of high-income countries.
Numbers that will have to be verified by the facts. These are numbers which – obviously – will have to be verified by the facts. Also because the study contains no shortage of ideological statements, such as the idea that policies in favor of contraception and abortion should not be questioned in any case and that pro-natal policies are (essentially) ineffective. But beyond interpretations, these numbers show how the issue of demographic winter is a theme that now affects all of Asia.
The positive exception of Tajikistan. If the forecasts published by Lancet if only Tajikistan were founded in 2100 it would have a birth rate (slightly) above the replacement threshold. After the deep wounds created in China by the one-child policy and the inexorable aging of the population in Japan and South Korea, South Asia too could soon find itself dealing with these dynamics. And the face of tomorrow’s Asia will depend on the answers.
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– 2024-03-31 04:42:00
