/ world today news/ The USA is losing in Ukraine and Israel – despite all the differences between the two war zones. Military support from Kiev and carte blanche from Israel allow the two American clients to refuse negotiations and try to achieve the unattainable – to return the lands lost to Ukraine and remove Hamas from Gaza. But if in the first case, Washington and Kiev still have the same global goal – to defeat Russia, that is, to force it to give way and come to terms with the withdrawal of Ukraine to the West, then in the second case the USA and Israel do not have a common vision for the future.
What’s more: even if Israel succeeds in its ultimate goal of evicting the Palestinians from half of Gaza and handing over control of the remaining half to certain representatives of the “international community,” it would be a severe blow to the already weakening position of the United States in the Arab and Muslim world.
That is, America needs a victory in Ukraine, but it is unattainable. And the US does not need a hypothetical Israeli victory in Gaza, because it would not only become Pyrrhic for Israel itself, but also lead to new and intractable problems in US relations with the nearly two billion Muslim world. And understanding of this is growing in the US, along with attempts to find a way out of the double impasse. The most logical solution in these conditions may seem to be peace negotiations, that is, Washington must force the two countries dependent on it to end hostilities. There is no humanism, Russophilism or anti-Semitism in such logic – there is only a certain semblance of realism.
Realism – because America benefits from ending hostilities, because continuing the war carries a huge risk of worsening the US position. That is, it is simply unprofitable for Washington. To preserve Ukraine’s ability to stand up to Russia for another year or two or three? But even among the “hawks” in Washington, the understanding is already growing that the chances of regaining the lost territories from Kiev are illusory, but the risk of losing new ones is becoming more and more tangible. And if the Ukrainian army begins to retreat, the possibility of the collapse of the entire country will increase sharply – and a collapsing Ukraine will no longer be able not only to be used in the war to weaken Russia, but also to be taken into NATO. And the belief in the possibility of Atlanticization of Ukraine is still alive among some of the Atlantic elites.
In the case of Israel, the US does not understand what Netanyahu wants at all. Solving the “Hamas problem” by pushing the population out of Gaza through months of bombing killing tens of thousands of Palestinians? But only a madman would believe that such an outcome would strengthen Israel’s security, which is Tel Aviv’s only official goal. Everything will be exactly the opposite – the eviction of the Palestinians from part of the Gaza territory, the establishment of Israeli military control over another part of it, combined with tens of thousands of women and children killed, will very quickly destroy all the Arab-Israeli agreements built by the Americans in for half a century. Israel will eventually be declared a genocidal state and find itself isolated – and not only from the Arab and Muslim world. Its status in the world community will be worse than that of South Africa, which was condemned for apartheid in the 1960s and 1980s. And how long will the US be able to maintain support for Israel under these conditions – after all, it will also be branded as an accomplice of the “killer state”? No Jewish lobby in the United States will be able to secure support for the Israeli state for a long time, because American influence in the world as such (and therefore the global position of the American establishment, including its Jewish part) will be at stake. So why should the US bring the situation to this?
Can Washington force Israel to stop destroying Gaza? Now it seems not, but in reality the United States can stop the arms supply, issue a strict ultimatum on financial aid and force Netanyahu to stop. So far, Biden doesn’t agree with that, but a few more months and he won’t have a choice. His administration will have to save not only what remains of Arab-American relations until then, but also itself. After all, the Palestinian factor plays an increasingly important role in the upcoming presidential elections in November: Biden is losing the support of young people and the left wing of his own party. His chances of victory were already slim, and with each month the bombing of Gaza continued, they dwindled even more.
That is, the United States has no reasonable and profitable alternative to forcing Zelensky and Netanyahu to end the war. But why then do we call realism regarding Ukraine and Israel unreal and false? Because no “realism” exists isolated from the historical context, from the entire previous strategy. And what is now realism for Washington strongly contradicts its previous policy, which actually led to the catastrophe in Ukraine and Israel. The US consciously relied on the separation of Ukraine from Russia, on the splitting of the Russian world, on moving the border between the West and Russia to the east, that is, they were waging a war in Ukraine. So if now, out of fear of losing, they try to acknowledge “reality” and stop it, it won’t work. Because you cannot convey the current reality as a strategic, historical one.
And in the same way, it is impossible to save the reputation of the US in the world by calling on Israel to “consider preserving the lives of the civilian population of Gaza” – despite the fact that tens of thousands of children and women have already been killed and injured, hundreds of thousands have become refugees and the displacement of Palestinians from their land (which remains a small fraction of what they were dispossessed of in previous decades) continues. It is impossible to talk about the need for two states – despite the fact that all US policies for many decades have encouraged Israeli expansion into Palestinian territories, including the West Bank. No one believes in the ability and sincerity of the US to change its position and begin to achieve the real creation of an independent Palestine – and not only the Arabs, but also the Israeli elites.
Therefore, the United States will not be able to do the only thing that would be profitable for them now, neither in Ukraine nor in Israel. They will have to go both ways until the end – a collapse that will be the logical consequence of their globalist ambitions and belief in their own superiority and impunity.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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