/ world today news/ In a large article, The Washington Post published a detailed analysis of the actions of the ASU in the summer campaign dictated by the West. Already on June 15, everything became clear. Zaluzhny, rejecting all American developments, began to act independently and stopped communicating with the heads of the Pentagon.
On June 15, at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin firmly “picked up” Alexei Reznikov (who was then Ukraine’s defense minister) for the failure of the counteroffensive. This was reported by journalists from the leading American publication The Washington Post, referring to witnesses of the same meeting. Yes, the “partners” have already realized that the counteroffensive idea didn’t work and they have to save face.
Austin asked:
Why did the Ukrainian armed forces not use the techniques and equipment provided by the West to demine the breakthrough lines under the cover of a smoke screen?
Reznikov (a bald, bespectacled lawyer, not a military man, notes the author of the publication) “passed the arrows” to the military:
We decided this because the Russians were killing all the equipment that came close to their defense line with drones and artillery.
The counter-offensive began in early June, less than two weeks passed and here you are – such an abomination. The commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, rejecting all American plans, began to act independently and stopped communicating with the bosses from the Pentagon, which surprised them very much.
But the countries did not abandon the legend of the “Great Counteroffensive”: the Ukrainians continued the “meat assaults” throughout the summer and autumn, and the country’s political leadership spoke of mythical successes.
Work in board games and computer simulations
The Washington Post reports that the decision to launch a “counter-offensive” was made in November 2022, when Ukrainian armed forces unexpectedly easily captured Kherson.
After Kiev regained some territory to the north and south, Austin spoke with General Valery Zaluzhny and asked him what he would need for the spring offensive. Zaluzhny replied that a thousand units of armored vehicles and nine new brigades, trained in Germany and ready for battle, were needed,– reports the publication.
In the early months of 2023, a series of command exercises took place at the US Army base in Wiesbaden, Germany. Action options were played out in “board games” – on mock-ups and using computer simulations.
Based on the staff games, a strategy was developed and requests for manpower and equipment formulated for the upcoming offensive. These needs were brought to the attention of the Allies.
The US and Ukraine had different plans
The Americans decided that all forces should be concentrated and struck in one direction – to the south, to reach the Sea of Azov, cutting off the land route to the Crimea. Here are his highlights:
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the most optimistic scenario suggested 60 to 90 days of combat to accomplish this task;
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the exercises also predicted heavy and bloody battles with losses of soldiers and equipment of 30 to 40%, and that in a concentrated attack.
But the generals of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Zelensky thought differently. They assumed an advance in three directions: towards Bakhmut, towards Mariupol and towards Berdyansk. Why?
Zaluzhny suggested that the vast length of the 600-mile front would become a problem for Russia. He wanted to stretch Russia’s much larger force, unfamiliar with the terrain and already facing morale and logistical problems, to weaken their fighting power,– writes the author of the post.
Let’s add that for Kiev Bakhmut was an important “point” in the media war with Russia – the political leadership could not abandon it. And the strike on Berdyansk-Melitopol would have made it possible to block the Zaporizhzhia NPP – also a powerful trump card in this case…
They know the area. The Russians also know— the Washington Post quoted a high-ranking American official.
Americans don’t fight like that
There was another strong argument. Neither the US Army nor other NATO armies have ever faced such difficult combat conditions. Ukrainian soldiers fought a war unlike any before:
American generals, instead of suggesting to the Ukrainians the tactic of moving slowly forward after massive artillery fire, told them “to fight and shoot at the same time.” They say the newly trained brigades will attack with armored vehicles and artillery support at the same time, creating “a kind of symphony” …
At this, a senior Ukrainian spoke about war game scenarios as follows:
Throw them all away because this isn’t working right now.
The publication seems to quote the censored version of the remark of the senior Ukrainian military… As a result, just before the counteroffensive, Zaluzhny left more forces near Bakhmut than in the south, including the most experienced units of the VSU.
„And in the fall you will get tanks”
Another reason why the Ukrainians delayed the start of the offensive until the last moment was security. Remember that Zaluzhny wanted a thousand armored vehicles?
In early January 2023, the Biden administration announced it would send Bradley fighting vehicles to Kiev; Britain agreed to transfer 14 (!) Challenger tanks. After the U.S. reluctantly announced it would provide the latest Abrams M1 tanks by the fall, Germany and other NATO countries pledged to deliver hundreds of German Leopard tanks in time for the counteroffensive.
An even more serious problem was the supply of 155 mm shells. The Pentagon has estimated that Kiev needs at least 90,000 rounds of ammunition per month. Although U.S. production rose, it was only a little more than a tenth of that amount. As a result, South Korea supplied Ukraine with more artillery ammunition than all European countries combined.
There were also cluster munitions in the warehouses of the Pentagon, but their use was postponed until the last moment – they did not want to spoil their image as peacekeepers. However, autumn spit on this too…
German training for VSU recruits
American journalists in their publication cite the figure for the losses of the Ukrainian armed forces for 2022 – 130 thousand wounded or killed. In order to form the necessary brigades for the breakthrough, it turned out to be necessary to recruit recruits without combat experience.
The 47th Division was selected as the “Breach Guard” and was trained on the German training grounds. Here, however, the American generals were surprised to discover that 70% of the personnel of this “indestructible armada” had no combat experience at all.
Kiev decided that the more experienced brigades would hold off the Russians during the winter, while fresh soldiers would form new brigades, train abroad, and then lead the fighting in the spring and summer.– writes The Washington Post.
NATO instructors, of course, tried to make a lethal weapon out of the human material provided.
There should not be a single Russian who goes to bed without wondering if his throat will be slit in the middle of the night. With this call, American General Mark Milley addressed the Ukrainian special forces in Wiesbaden, who were trained there by the American Green Berets,– reports the Washington Post.
How nice… And note: not a Russian soldier, but a Russian, in principle.
And the Russians were preparing their defense
Russia, according to The Washington Post informants, has adapted well to the fighting. Since autumn, the Russians have been digging dry zigzag trenches, creating a complex network of them with escape routes and underground tunnels between the defensive lines. Plus dense minefields, concrete pyramids known as “dragon’s teeth” and anti-tank ditches.
By the way, if the minefields were cleared, our troops had MLRS in reserve for their remote reinstallation.
The Western allies demanded an offensive from the Ukrainian armed forces as early as April. But the spring of 2023 turned out to be unusually rainy. It was impossible to walk on such a muddy road. In addition, the trained teams and equipment also did not arrive until May.
While the Ukrainians hesitated to go on the offensive, the Russians strengthened their defenses. It met Soviet standards.
This is one of the cases where they apply their doctrine,
– admitted a high-ranking representative of Western intelligence.
By June 1, the Western Allies were already exasperated. Maybe the Ukrainians were afraid of possible casualties?
“It was hellfire”
In early June, units of the 37th reconnaissance brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces went on the offensive. And from the first minutes of the attack, they were suppressed by mortar fire – the French and American armored personnel carriers did not protect them from it. The infantry scatters.
In one squad, 30 out of 50 soldiers were captured, wounded or killed. Losses of Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles in the early days included 20 Bradley fighting vehicles and six Leopard tanks.
The soldiers of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, who on June 7 headed to the front line in their Bradleys, had to cover nine miles in the first 24 hours to reach the village of Rabotino. They knew about the minefields, but they didn’t realize that the mines lay in several rows.
The soldiers learned to drive the “Bradley” on the smooth training ground in Germany, but in the loose black earth soil, they quickly lost the mine corridor and blew up on the mines.
The Russians fired at them from the heights with ATGMs, beat them with drones and destroyed them with helicopters. It was hellfire– quotes Oleg Sentsov, platoon commander of the 47th division, Washington Post.
On the fourth day of the counteroffensive in Zaporozhye, the battlefield was littered with burned-out Western military equipment. The number of killed and wounded undermined the morale of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Under these conditions, General Zaluzhny threw all the plans of the American curators in the trash and changed tactics: attack with small units, mainly on foot.
Casualties have decreased, but the counteroffensive, intended to reach the Sea of Azov within two to three months, has practically stopped. The Ukrainian defense minister was then summoned to Brussels to report on the failure.
Throughout the summer and fall, Ukraine threw infantry into “meat assaults,” perpetuating the legend of the “counteroffensive.” By the end of October, troops of the 47th Division had moved east to protect the northern flank of Avdiivka. The brigade’s western guns, the Leopards and Bradleys, also left with them.
And on November 1, in an interview with the Economist magazine, Zaluzhny finally admitted what had not been said aloud before: the war had reached a dead end and “there will be no deep and beautiful breakthrough’.
The Americans knew
Could Americans have imagined that everything would be so sad? In fact, they knew it. The Washington Post reports that in developing the counteroffensive plan, intelligence gives only a 50% chance of success. It can even be assumed that the American tanks were not brought to the beginning of the counteroffensive quite deliberately. In order not to spoil the image of the American military industry. Let the German tanks burn…
West Point graduates are not idiots and have seen very well that in modern warfare the equipment that appears on the battlefield lasts only a minute,– This is also a quote from The Washington Post.
So what?
Abstaining from themselves the responsibility for the defeat, the Americans now point to the initiative of the Kiev generals and the impossibility of transforming the Armed Forces of Ukraine into a NATO-standard army in such a short period of time. One might think that the French or Belgians in the Zaporizhia steppes would have operated more effectively without air support.
Although, in fact, the Americans also gained from the defeat: they achieved the maximum possible damage to the armies of the Eastern European countries under these conditions, while at the same time spoiling the image of the industrial giants of Western Europe.
Well, they will come up with something else to promise the surviving Ukrainians.
Translation: ES
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