Vladimir Putin
Foto. Maksim BLINOV / SPUTNIK / AFP
Even before the elections, Vladimir Putin described the budget priorities for the period between now and 2030, reports Newsweek.com.
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In his plans, Putin talked less about the war in Ukraine and more about developing the economy and his rule.
The plans included addressing the demographic crisis. Putin said he wants life expectancy in Russia to reach 78 years by 2030. Interestingly, it will be his own age if he lasts his term to the end.
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The desired exchange rate is said to be around 90 rubles to the dollar. It is planned to allocate 1 trillion rubles ($10.9 billion) to hospitals and 400 billion rubles ($4.4 billion) to schools and kindergartens. But in a country with about 140 million inhabitants, this is not much.
“2024. 2018 is the first year since the Soviet Union when the military and police budget combined is larger than the social budget,” said Russian opposition politician Alexei Minilo, referring to the fact that a third of Russian government spending is planned for defense.
“He sees that people are very tired of the war, that some Russians have a consistent support for the war and want the government to focus on domestic affairs,” Minillo told Newsweek. “Putin wants to give the impression that he is paying more attention to domestic affairs, but in reality this is not the case.”
In one of his final speeches before the election, Putin also suggested Russia was ready to use nuclear weapons and condemned a US election that could mean both Donald Trump’s return to the White House and questions about his ties to the Kremlin.
“The biggest and most important card at stake right now is what happens in the 2024 U.S. election,” said Colorado School of Mines history professor Ken Osgood, noting Trump and the MAGA wing of the GOP to quickly end the war in Ukraine.
“The withdrawal of US support and American pressure on Ukraine to negotiate will mean a victory for Putin. Even if he only owns the territory currently occupied by Russia, Putin will likely claim it as a victory,” he told Newsweek. “The consequences of such a course will be felt for years.”
“Does this mean Putin will invade Poland or start a war with NATO? It’s not very likely. Even if the US withdraws from NATO, it is still a huge and nuclear-armed alliance – a direct attack would in any case provoke a massive response.”
However, Putin is likely to launch even more aggressive cyber and information warfare tactics to cause divisions within the alliance.
John Loff, from the Chatham House think tank, said the country would become “increasingly bleak” for six more years of Putin’s rule.
“Putin, in the opinion of many Russians, took away their future, and I think it will become much clearer in the next, maybe five to 10 years, that this is a big hole that he has dug himself into and that Russia has fallen into,” in an interview with Newsweek said Lough.
“Putin hopes that the West will break and that he can achieve some kind of victory in Ukraine,” he said.
The US’s drift away from Europe and NATO’s declining effectiveness could be areas that “he will no doubt point to as the fruits of his labor,” Loff added. “But this country will become more and more isolated, more and more unattractive.”
Putin has dismissed as complete nonsense President Joe Biden’s claims that he is looking at other countries after Ukraine, but it is unclear what the Russian leader might try to present to his people as a victory if the war stops.
“I don’t think Putin wants to take all of Ukraine as long as the cost is too high,” Mietek Boduszynski, a former U.S. diplomat who has served as a Pentagon policy adviser, told Newsweek.
“Rather, Putin will try to keep the parts of Ukraine that Russia currently controls as Russian enclaves, hoping to keep Ukraine divided, weak,” he said.
“I don’t think Putin wants to start a full-scale conventional war with NATO, but he wants to continue to find ways to drive a wedge into the alliance and use tools like disinformation and cyber attacks to launch an alternative war against NATO countries. ” added Boduszyński, an associate professor at Pomona College in Claremont, California.
Putin may think he’s lucky at the moment, having brutally put down a rebellion by Wagner’s mercenary head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and seeing his forces gain momentum on the battlefield. Likewise, the death of Alexei Navalny has marked the end of the country’s most famous opposition figure, and further curbing of dissent could be expected.
“Inside Russia, you can expect more repression, more efforts to shut down information that contradicts the regime’s message, which could take many forms in terms of access to social media platforms,” said Brian Taylor, author of The Code.
However, Putin’s potential victory still means an uninterrupted 6-year term, especially as the impact of sanctions continues to negatively affect the Russian economy and the huge human toll of the war, such as in Avdiivka, imposes a huge cost on the population and threatens Putin’s rule.
I don’t think the election matters. Mikhail Gorbachev lost his power as president of the Soviet Union in his first year. Putin is not in a safer position just because he has another term – every year he faces increasing danger, the media points out.
“Putin has no way out, he can’t stop the war, he can’t stop the repression.”
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2024-03-17 22:51:20
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