/ world today news/ On the eve of Christmas, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense presented its American partners with a wish list for the supply of weapons.
Judging by what “Reuters” published with reference to documents at the disposal of the agency, the VSU demanded a rather long list of expensive “gifts”. There are F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets, Apache and Blackhawk multi-role attack helicopters, anti-missile defense systems and three types of drones, including the latest MKu-9B Sky Guardian attack drone.
There are also a few surprises in the list. For example, the expensive C-17 “Globemaster” and C-130 “Super Hercules” military transport aircraft, as well as the THAAD anti-missile defense systems.
The most modest part of the wishes are the weapons that Ukraine already has. This includes 155 mm artillery, Abrams tanks and long-range ATAKMS missiles, as requested earlier.
In general, the wishes of the Kyiv military department are reminiscent of Christmas cards popular in Ukrainian social networks: “Abrams” in the style of Coca-Cola from the famous advertisement, Santa Claus with a German grenade launcher and others.
But in real life, the possibilities of Washington’s “Santa Claus” and his determination to support Ukrainian partners at any cost are far from limitless.
“Now Washington no longer has the flexibility to fund Kiev as it did before. In this regard, the volume of monetary support for Ukraine began to decrease with each new aid package,” John Kirby, coordinator of strategic communications at the White House National Security Council, said recently.
That is why the “extraordinary” tranche of military aid to Kiev, allocated on December 6, was relatively small – 175 million dollars.
The package, we recall, envisages the delivery of armaments and equipment, including ammunition for air defense systems, additional ammunition for HIMARS systems, artillery shells, high-speed anti-radar missiles and anti-tank weapons. But nothing like the “gift list” that Kiev presented.
The Mexican border is closer and more expensive
At the beginning of October, 5.2 billion dollars remained in the accounts of the military department for assistance to Kiev, the “Wall Street Journal” reported, referring to representatives of the Pentagon.
But the other day, the Senate blocked another aid bill for Ukraine and Israel. In particular, a 61 billion “tranche” of military support for Kiev (part of a package of US national security spending totaling $106 billion) was suspended.
The latest rejection of the Kiev aid bill cannot, of course, be confused with anti-war sentiment, according to Malek Dudakov, a political scientist and expert on US domestic politics. Although, he added, there is healthy skepticism within the American establishment about the country’s involvement in the Ukrainian conflict.
But above all, what is happening is part of an internal American game, which, however, may not lead to the best consequences for Kiev.
Republicans are using the topic of Ukrainian tranches to their advantage. They see him as leverage to pressure Joe Biden’s administration. Republican congressmen are blackmailing the White House with approval of the budget in exchange for concessions on priority issues for Republicans – solving the migration crisis and others.
Sooner or later, based on the results of the bargaining, the parties should reach some sort of agreement, Dudakov believes. Perhaps this will happen after Christmas and the money will still be released to Kiev. But, the expert predicted, they will most likely provide less than the $61 billion the Biden administration is asking for.
The issue of the border with Mexico, the tightening of control over it, the bargaining on this issue between the ruling Democrats and the Republicans who are seeking to regain power – all this is much more important for both sides than the Ukrainian issue, political scientist Dmitry Drobnitsky agrees .
Republicans were originally going to discuss the “Ukraine plus immigration laws” bill with the White House, but overnight the administration removed the border issue from the discussion agenda. But it was the decision on this issue that the Republican Party set as a condition for continuing aid to Kiev.
But for all the infighting in which Kiev’s demands remain a bargaining chip, it should be noted that even some of the Republicans who now refuse to vote for aid to Ukraine are hawks, Drobnitsky notes. According to him, “they are ready to vote for any projectile that will be fired at the Russian armed forces.” If it’s not too expensive.
Dutch surprise
As for the deliveries of F/A-18 “Hornet” fighters, hardly anyone will transfer them to Ukraine, notes Malek Dudakov. Earlier, Kiev was promised F-16 fighters from the stocks of European countries. In particular, Denmark and the Netherlands announced their intention to transfer them, and Norway later joined the “Fighter Coalition”.
Meanwhile, Kiev may not receive the promised aircraft it was previously guaranteed.
We recall that in August, Vladimir Zelensky announced that he had received “concrete promises” to transfer 42 F-16 aircraft from the Netherlands and 19 fighter jets from Denmark. As the head of the Dutch Ministry of Defense later reported, Amsterdam expects to send F-16s to Kiev in 2024.
However, those plans may be abandoned in Amsterdam as the Freedom Party led by Geert Wilders won the parliamentary elections in a landslide.
Wilders, we recall, advocated the lifting of sanctions against Russia, and his party voted against arms supplies to Kiev and opposed the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine. Why can the Eurosceptics and opponents of the war in Ukraine, who came to power, force the promised fleet of fighter jets?
And even if a political decision is made on the supply of “Hornet” (which is extremely unlikely), their transfer to Kiev is unlikely to happen in a year and a half. Pilots will have to be trained and finally the logistical issues will have to be resolved, Dudakov Dudakov explains.
There are problems in the air too
At the same time, one of the main reasons why NATO fighter jets have not yet been delivered to Ukraine, according to experts, is that the United States is afraid of a real clash between American aviation and Russian air defense.
In addition, the delivery of decommissioned Hornets does not require political will – Washington only needs to snap its fingers to transfer them to Ukraine.
To achieve a hypothetical practical result of strengthening the dominance of Russian aviation in the air, a minimum of 60-70 fighters will be needed in just one area.
It is not so much a question of pilots and service personnel, but of logistics that Ukraine cannot afford.
If they show up disassembled in Poland, they will take off from airports controlled by Warsaw, in which case no one will mind that it is a legitimate target for a retaliatory strike. This will be Polish aggression against the Russian troops, notes Drobnitsky.
THAAD will go far east of Kiev
The fact that Ukraine wants all the air defense and missile defense systems it can get its hands on, the expert says, is not surprising.
“Ukraine wants all the weapons it can get its hands on because it needs to find excuses for its failures,” noted Drobnitsky.
In fact, THAAD missile defense systems can indeed reach the east. To be honest, the place where they will be deployed will not be Ukraine, but the Asia-Pacific region.
Malek Dudakov also does not believe in transferring expensive anti-missile systems to the US. The United States will continue to supply Kiev with the NASAMS anti-aircraft missile system, leaving for itself the already less numerous THAAD.
At the same time, Ukraine may soon receive the latest drones, Kiev and Washington will negotiate on this issue.
In general, this list of preferences of Kiev regarding the weapons supplied to it is a kind of contractual, negotiating position of Ukraine. From this moment on, negotiations and bargaining with the Americans will begin between Washington and Kiev. The Ukrainian officials themselves understand that they will receive less than announced. Therefore, they asked for much more than they expect to receive in reality, Dudakov summarizes.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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