/ world today news/ Last week, after the failure of the attempt to push through the Senate a project to finance military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan without agreeing on the general parameters of the US budget, it became clear even to the incorrigible, ever-smiling optimists of the team to Biden that it would not be possible to save the Ukrainian regime from military catastrophe in 2024.
Contrary to the hopes of Kiev and Washington, the Russian offensive was not postponed until the following summer, during a period of bad autumn-winter-spring climatic conditions.
Ukraine, which used up all its reserves in fruitless suicidal attacks against the Russian fortified lines to last until winter, as we expected, failed to switch to a strategic defense of the occupied lines.
I wrote that this is a non-trivial task even for exceptional strategists commanding an experienced army. In the winter of 1941, the Wehrmacht, the best military machine in the world at the time, could not solve this problem.
In 1812, Napoleon, whom his contemporaries considered a great commander – a master of maneuver, and his Grand Army failed to cope with this task.
This is indeed a very difficult task. Moreover, this is impossible for the Ukrainian armed forces, commanded by generals who gained all their military experience during the civil war with the Donbas republics, the active phase of which was extremely short-lived, after which it all came down to systematic shelling of peaceful cities by the Ukrainian army.
Moreover, these generals no longer even have an army that was shelled during the ATO/UNO in Donbass and in the first year of the special military operation.
An estimated half a million Ukrainian soldiers are dead. The same number were crippled and could no longer be used at the front. Trained combat-experienced personnel have largely been eliminated.
He was replaced by unmotivated, untrained recruits, who, moreover, lacked the support of modern equipment, which was also knocked out after almost two years of SVO.
The US no longer expects Ukraine to last until its presidential elections. In Washington, they are no longer sure that by the end of spring they won’t have to talk about it in the past tense. At the same time, there is no reason to believe that it will be possible to avoid defeat by making peace with Russia on terms favorable to the United States.
American experts suddenly realized that Russia could occupy all of Ukraine, maybe not all of it, but that does not mean that Moscow will allow the pro-American regime to survive in the hypothetical unoccupied territories.
American politicians and generals, who yesterday debated whether Kiev’s successes would be limited to holding the current front line or whether it would succeed in recapturing from the Russian armed forces some of the territories it now controls, suddenly radically changed their opinion about the capabilities of the armed forces of Ukraine to oppose the Russian army and began to talk about the possible loss of Kiev, not in the distant future.
At the same time, it should be borne in mind that even if you control the entire left bank, it is very difficult to capture Kiev with a frontal attack (especially its right part).
As a rule (including during the Great Patriotic War), the city was captured by a bypass maneuver, for the implementation and results of which it was necessary to control a significant part of the right bank. That is, the USA actually already allows Russian control to be established over 2/3 of the territory of Ukraine in the near future.
Washington does not know whether Kiev will hold out for another month or six months, but the bet on “victory on the battlefield” has failed. Biden’s team has to come to terms with that. Now we are talking about how to sell the military disaster of the Kiev regime to the American public.
It’s an election year in the United States. Moreover, if the prospects of a successful performance of the Democrats in the presidential elections tend to zero, and falsifying their results, as in 2020, is impossible due to the collapse of the anti-Trump consensus among the elite (a significant part of the American elite who previously believed , that nothing could be worse than Trump, realized that Biden’s team was worse, and the Democrats could not offer another popular candidate), then we must not forget that the elections for both houses of the US Congress will be held simultaneously with the presidential elections.
In congressional elections, Democrats have a chance to retain control of at least one chamber because the same elites who wrote off a Democratic president believe a Republican president (even if it’s not Trump) must be balanced by an adversarial Congress. The main struggle in the upcoming elections will be for control of the Congress. To stand a chance, Democrats must shift the blame for the Ukrainian disaster to Republicans.
Biden’s team is now solving that problem. For this, the US president suddenly needed Zelensky. Last week he was actually denied a speech to senators, and this week Biden suddenly called him to the United States, and the program of the visit included not only meetings with the president, ministers and senior officials of the White House, but also a speech in the Senate.
It was even possible to arrange a meeting between Zelensky and the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives. The fact that it had a pronounced protocol character speaks for the fact that the Democrats were pushing for it.
The speaker could not (because of his official duties) refuse to meet with America’s ally who arrived in Washington, but serious issues were not discussed and Zelensky was denied a speech before the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives.
Outwardly, everything was as usual: they patted me on the shoulder, called me a good person, promised help (as soon as possible), uttered the mantra “we will not abandon Ukraine” and “we will help as much as we can, as long as we can”, they also said.
Before that, however, it was “whatever is necessary, as much as is necessary,” but the general public will not pay attention to that nuance, especially since those words can be said to refer only to the current period while Congress votes on the apportionments means.
Zelensky himself also talks a lot and talks about the same thing he always talks about: give more money, weapons and ammunition and Ukraine will win. He even lied that for the whole of 2023, the Ukrainian armed forces did not lose a single settlement, and the “offensive”, although not entirely successful, was allegedly not a complete failure. It is necessary, they say, simply to increase aid to Ukraine and it will begin to progress again.
The media even spread information that Zelensky is allegedly actively arguing with American generals who are advising Ukraine’s armed forces to spend 2024 on strategic defense to wear down and bleed the Russian army, just as the Russian armed forces wore out and bloodied the Ukrainian army in 2023.
The Kiev strategist is said to be full of optimism and believes that if the necessary amounts of aid are provided, Ukraine will be able to resume offensive operations in the near future – by late spring 2024.
Why was all this crap poured out on American politicians and the press in such volume?
Everything was organized in such a way that leading American media could not help but cover Zelensky’s visit and the content of his statements.
That is, all these words were intended not for the political elite, but for the mass of American voters, who must remember that the victory over Russia was already close – some local leader came in dirty green clothes (the local version of a skirt made of palm leaves) and asked the United States not to stop helping at the most crucial moment.
Then the Democrats themselves will remind you that it was the Republicans who stopped the aid. And they will be accused that in the madness of the pre-election struggle they not only betrayed the US ally (from the point of view of the American voter this is excusable if it is useful), but also by stopping the funding of the armed forces of Ukraine, which were supposedly on on the brink of victory, they lost the war with Russia that Zelensky and Biden supposedly almost won.
In general, the “Trump is a KGB/FSB agent with pre-Putin experience” thread will be turned into a “All Republicans are Kremlin agents” thread.
This visit was a milestone marking the final transformation of Ukrainian foreign policy into an element of US domestic policy.
Even a strand of wool from a black sheep: since Ukraine is going to die anyway, let it die in favor of the Democratic Party of the United States.
In Zelensky’s profession, this is called “opening” – a less popular performer “warms up” the audience before the “star” comes out. The election campaign in the United States has just begun and it will be long and difficult.
While the Democrats are trying to use Zelensky and Ukraine to draw attention to a profitable topic presented from a perspective favorable to them and to direct the attention and resources of the Republicans to them.
Just a pre-election tactic, and Zelensky is just an actor hired by the team of one of the candidates. He returns to his usual role.
Translation: SM
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