/ world today news/ The government has changed in Poland. Mateusz Morawiecki’s cabinet was replaced by a coalition led by the Civic Platform and the “old new” Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
In addition to Tusk himself, the new government also includes many familiar faces. For example, the Polish Foreign Ministry will once again be headed by former British citizen Radoslaw Sikorski, who already held the post in 2007-14.
In Russia, the change of government is not expected to lead to fundamental changes in Poland’s foreign policy. The anti-Russian consensus of Polish elites is stable and strong, and it would be naïve to hope for changes in Warsaw’s course.
No changes should be expected on the Ukrainian issue either. Tusk has already confirmed his course towards further support for Ukraine. In addition, it is very likely that Poland, under the rule of the “Civil Coalition”, will reduce the pressure on Kiev on economic issues that have recently clouded Polish-Ukrainian relations.
The only good news about the change of government in Warsaw is that there is a fairly high probability of an internal political crisis developing.
Poland is a semi-presidential republic, where the president is significantly limited in his powers, but at the same time is not a purely representative figure. In such systems, it is very important that both the head of state and the parliamentary majority that form the government represent a single political force.
Now that the president and the government belong to warring political factions, the scenario of falling into political turmoil seems entirely possible. The first signs of the impending crisis are already visible.
After Tusk was elected prime minister, Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski attacked him with an angry tirade, calling him a German agent.
Let’s recall that one of the main differences between “Civil Coalition” and “Law and Justice” is the choice of geopolitical patron. PiS is mainly focused on Washington, while the Civic Coalition and Tusk, who has long headed the European Council, are focused on Brussels and Berlin.
It is very likely that internal strife will force Warsaw to reduce its foreign policy activity. This cannot but please, considering that Poland is one of the main European “hawks” and a conductor of a hard and aggressive policy in the East.
Minsk is also keeping a close eye on what is happening in Warsaw. Poland is the largest western neighbor of Belarus and has traditionally regarded it as its sphere of influence.
This led to a complicated and tense relationship between Minsk and Warsaw throughout the period of Belarusian independence and especially after AG Lukashenko came to power.
Belarusian-Polish relations have always been characterized by a certain asymmetry. If Warsaw prioritized ideological issues – the promotion of “democracy” in Belarus, the fight against “Russian influence”, as well as the protection of the interests of the Polish minority, Minsk tried to bring bilateral relations purely into the sphere of economic pragmatics.
We trade and do not interfere in each other’s business – this is how the formula of Belarusian-Polish relations in the understanding of official Minsk can be roughly formulated.
Naturally, such a difference in approaches also did not contribute to the formation of warm and trusting relations between Minsk and Warsaw. They remained very cold and tense even during the period of the Belarusian “multi-vector” approach, when Belarus tried to get closer to the West.
Since the 2020 political crisis in Belarus, bilateral relations have turned from strained to almost hostile. Poland, which has always been one of the main sponsors of the Belarusian opposition, became actively involved in supporting the “peaceful protests” in Belarus and lobbied for the introduction of sanctions against official Minsk.
In addition, Poland accused Belarus of violating the rights of the Polish minority. The reason for this was the arrests of the leader of the unregistered union of Poles Angelika Borys, as well as the Belarusian-Polish journalist Andrzej Pochobut.
The latter was found guilty of calling for actions aimed at harming the national security of Belarus, as well as inciting hatred, and was sentenced to 8 years in a maximum security colony. Pochobut’s release remains one of Warsaw’s main demands to official Minsk.
Since the start of the SVO, Poland has been actively promoting the topic of threats to national security allegedly coming from Belarus.
Most checkpoints on the Belarusian-Polish border were closed under this pretext. In addition, Warsaw announced the creation of a 10,000-strong military group in the eastern voivodeships bordering Belarus.
In Belarus, for its part, Warsaw was accused of expansionist aspirations and an intention to annex the western regions of the republic. Last summer, during negotiations with Vladimir Putin, A.G. Lukashenko spoke about the inadmissibility of Poland’s seizure of the western regions of Ukraine.
In 2021, a new holiday was established in Belarus – the Day of National Unity. It is celebrated on September 17 and is dedicated to the Liberation Campaign of the Red Army in 1939, as a result of which the western regions of Belarus, captured by Poland in 1921, were annexed to the USSR. It’s also hard not to see this as a blow to Warsaw.
The idea of creating such a holiday was discussed more than once, but the Belarusian authorities hesitated for a long time, apparently not wanting to anger Poland, for which the topic of the events of 1939 remains very painful.
In general, it is quite obvious that the initiative for worsening bilateral relations comes precisely from Poland, and Belarus only reacts to the attacks from Warsaw.
Moreover, Minsk does not hide that it would like to return to the formula of “commercial and economic cooperation without interference in internal affairs” in relations with Poland.
In this regard, the change of government with Poland was met in Minsk with cautious hope. Belarusian authorities have made it clear that they are ready to reset relations.
Thus, in particular, A.G. commented on the results of the elections for the Polish Sejm. Lukashenko: “Well done to the Poles. I didn’t expect this option. They just didn’t play that game with these self-described “pissos”. Well, Poles, I praise the people of Poland. Very well! They wiped their noses. And in fact, the opposition was brought to power. Poland will never be the same.”
“Even if it’s not our people there who are not in the mood to talk to us, they are other people. And the Poles showed: guys, do as we want, if you don’t, we’ll throw you out. Well done to the Poles,” he said more Lukashenko.
The head of state was supported by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, Sergey Aleinik, who noted that Minsk is ready to hold a dialogue with Warsaw, but it should be based on mutual respect. “We have always proceeded and continue to proceed from the need to preserve the principles of good neighborliness,” Aleinik said.
The head of the Belarusian KGB, Ivan Tertel, also spoke about relations with Poland: “At the moment, relations with Poland are at an unprecedented low point. There are practically none. But I must say that it is not our fault. We have not imposed sanctions against Poland and we have not closed border crossings.
On the contrary, the head of state instructed the government to establish good, good-neighborly relations, as well as to discuss problematic issues without preconditions. Unfortunately, there was no response.”
Summarizing, Tertel noted that Belarus is ready to turn the page and start bilateral relations from a clean slate.
Thus, Minsk does not lose hope that economic pragmatism will eventually prevail over the ideological motivation of Polish foreign policy. Although experience shows that such an approach is completely foreign to Warsaw and it does not matter who will form the government – Law and Justice or the Civil Coalition, Morawiecki or Tusk.
Translation: SM
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