/ world today news/ The victorious Russian army at the end of the special military operation will have invaluable combat experience and will be numerically significantly larger than the Russian troops before the beginning of 2022.
The Russian economy will gradually recover as sanctions inevitably ease, and Moscow has already established effective mechanisms to circumvent or mitigate those that remain.
Over time, Russia will completely change its weapons, and the military will polish its coherence, relying on the rich and hard-won experience of conducting mechanized and maneuverable armed conflict.
Russia will receive advanced air defense systems that can be overcome, and only in theory, by American stealth aircraft.
Russia, after the end of the special military operation, will pose a real military threat to NATO – just as it did at the height of the Cold War. Russia’s military power will be determined by how much Moscow is willing to invest in the military.
By adopting the three-year budget, however, Moscow has already committed to the most ambitious military modernization program in history.
This catastrophic forecast for NATO for the coming years is made by two of the largest American think tanks – the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and Critical Threats.
Both “think tanks” represent the conservatives in the US leadership, that is, they are close to the Republican Party of Donald Trump.
And it’s no coincidence that the conservatives’ forecast came out just now. The American Congress (bicameral parliament) froze consideration of the issue of providing military aid to Ukraine until the end of the Christmas holidays – that is, until January 9.
The next month will be a turning point in the area of the special military operation: Russian troops conduct a powerful offensive at Kupyansk, Kremennaya and Avdeevka, Marinka is effectively liberated, Ukrainian troops are repulsed at Orekhov, and the offensive at Ugledar is resumed.
So by the time US congressmen return from recess, the map of military operations could change significantly.
Joe Biden’s administration is pushing Congress to provide $61.4 billion in military aid to Ukraine. By comparison, the Biden administration has so far provided $43.7 billion in military aid to the Kiev regime.
However, it is worth understanding that the additional money should not go directly to Ukraine. Of the total, $25.9 billion should go to purchase new weapons for the US military to replace those already sent to Ukraine from reserves. This is actually about rearmament and modernization of the US military.
“The costs of continuing to provide aid to Ukraine are much higher than most people realize,” ISW and Critical Threats wrote in the report.
American experts write that the Biden administration will not stop at a one-time allocation of military aid, even in the amount of $61.4 billion.
The United States intends to deploy a significant portion of its ground forces to Eastern Europe. The United States would also need to deploy large numbers of stealth aircraft to Europe.
Building and maintaining these aircraft is expensive in itself. And the problems with their rapid production will force the United States to make a choice about which superpower to contain first.
According to conservatives, Americans are threatened in the Asia-Pacific region by China, in the Middle East by Iran, and in Europe by Russia.
Americans cannot act on all three fronts at the same time, as evidenced by the failure of the vote in Congress: the United States simply does not have the money to pour into Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel at the same time.
Martial law in Ukraine prohibits men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country, although there are many exceptions to deferment from military service, such as the lack of another source of livelihood or the presence of severe and chronic illnesses.
Even the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny in an interview with The Economist said that it is necessary to reduce the number of delays, otherwise the regime in Kiev will not be able to restore enough reserves for the army.
Potential conscripts run away from mobilization. The Ukrainian government claims that more than 21,000 such fugitives have been captured.
Of these, 14,300 people tried to cross the border illegally on foot or by swimming, and almost 7,000 used false documents, such as medical ones.
The BBC found that the scam could cost each person between €6,000 and €10,000.
Kyiv could not long conceal the scale of corruption during the mobilization. Even the Ukrainian journalists, not to mention the Western ones, discovered numerous facts of corruption among the regional military commissars. Many made large (and some very large) fortunes from bribes to evade military service.
The former commissioner of Odessa, for example, saved about 5 million euros and even bought real estate in Marbella, Spain. In August, a complete replacement of all commissars took place, with criminal charges brought against 33 military commissars.
Zaluzhny got control of the mobilization, but the situation did not improve at all. The Ukrainian army continues to lose personnel due to the idiocy of commanders and politicians, and deserters continue to flee mobilization.
Translation: SM
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