Stefanos Kasselakis has adopted a rhetoric that does not leave him much room for maneuver. Yes, he has stopped arguing that the goal of SYRIZA on European elections of June 9 is the victory and the dethronement of the New Democracy from the first place of the pyramid, but by resetting the bar to 17% of the national elections, it will be questioned again if not verified by the result of the ballot box.
In order for the “opposition” in Koumundourou not to once again withdraw its confidence in the party president, who insists on saying that he will not leave before 2027, the second place victory and the “victory” over PASOK in the battle of the Center-Left is considered a non-negotiable condition. Olga Gerovasili could not have put it more cynically, saying (in Action24) that the goal is a percentage greater than the current forecasts and at the same time maintaining the status quo of the national elections.
While, after all, St. Kasselakis has a number of internal issues to resolve before he leaves the past behind him for good and transforms SYRIZA, such as what happened recently with Thymios Georgopoulos, resulting in a public prosecutor’s investigation being announced against him for the possibility of violating the law on where to get involved, it is a given that the loss of the gains on the political map of the country will open a fresh wound in the already wounded body of the faction.
The fresh measurements presented during the week, at the beginning (by Pulse) and at the end (by Alco), reaffirmed that the battle for the primacy on the left of the ND will be completely ambiguous and almost unpredictable.
SYRIZA appears to be covering a small part of the polling losses it had all the previous period, when it was frightening by flirting with the single-digit percentage, and this for Koumoundourou sources was a first sign of the reversal of the climate. They stood in particular on the fact that for the voters of SYRIZA the St. Kasselakis came out strengthened by the Congress (in contrast to Alexis Tsipras, who was losing the battle of impressions), while opening up his gap with Nikos Androulakis in the suitability for the prime ministership of the country (10% against 8%).
Because 12% is borderline
Be that as it may, both 12% and 10.5% respectively in the intention to vote inevitably raise questions about the number of seats that SYRIZA will manage to secure in the new European Parliament. And if the reduction from 23.75% in 2019 is now an acceptable condition, the loss of half of the seats will not be easily manageable, even more so if the party’s strength ultimately declines to two of the six it held.
It is a non-arbitrary electoral version in the event that the percentage is below 12% under the new system of seat allocation – as passed in the recent postal voting bill. In this case, it will undoubtedly be a throwback to 2009, still under the presidency of Aleks Alavanos, when 4.70% gave a seat only to (subsequently resigned) Nikos Houndis.
Of course, the outcome of the battle and, by extension, the fate of SYRIZA will be determined by the total percentages that the parties above and below the 3% threshold will collect, because the division coefficient is derived from their sum. However, according to the data of the latest public and published opinion polls, SYRIZA is moving completely marginally. And let the reductions of the statisticians offer him a little more.
On the other hand, in order to elect four MEPs, he will need, always based on logic, to exceed the threshold of 17% that St. Kasselakis seeks. Of course, it will be a success that will be entirely credited to him.
The pools of voters
The attempt of SYRIZA to increase its forces, to “lock” the second place and at least to approach the percentage of the national elections has been divided into two axes. In addition to the opposition line that is already applied to open social issues (education, health, accuracy, justice, etc.) in order to activate quick reflexes to wear down the government’s work and to satisfy the party’s base to a large extent, the president, his associates and the candidate MEPs will hunt to win value for money bets while the PASOK remains stagnant.
Objectives are:
- the increase in turnout at the polling stations and
- attracting the large number of undecideds
Abstention…
In the corresponding process of 2019, 58.69% of the electorate had voted – that is, 4/10 were away. The first of the latest counts showed an upward trend in participation. The sample was very small and it always matters which 1,000 were asked, but the near 59% last time is considered possible to move towards 65%. The postal vote will open the circle for those who were not able to exercise their right to vote remotely, as there are already enough applications to the Ministry of the Interior, especially within the borders. It remains to be proven in practice, of course.
From SYRIZA, it is believed that the abstention of voters from the ballot box favors the ND, as opposed to the increase which is assumed to drop its percentages – perhaps even below the barrier of 30% (as it is beginning to be seen). Of course, it will be necessary for Koumoundourou to be the ones to convince that their own Euro-narrative responds to the concerns of the modern era – and not someone else’s combination. Because it is understood that a similar attempt will be made by their opponents for their own benefit.
…and undecided
The parameter of undecideds is equally catalytic since they influence the election result in the last few days. It is mainly about those who structure their choice in the conclusions of the pre-election campaign and act accordingly before entering the screen, crossing the ballot and throwing the envelope into the ballot box. It is a fluid space, mainly of centrist voters who move right or left on occasion.
As long as the new SYRIZA invests so that its new narrative concerns them too, it has a reason to claim their vote by betting on candidacies that will resonate with a more moderate public, will avoid crowns and will focus on tangible problems, not ephemeral ones.
Those who will come forward
Stefanos Kasselakis has personally pledged to support candidacies with “strong” resumes but who do not have the possibility of being promoted over others. At the same time, it is no coincidence that first-class executives (Dora Avgeri, Giorgos Tsipras, Nikolas Farandouris) are slowly starting to come forward and will attract votes.
Dora Avgeri
SYRIZA’s pre-election campaign for the European elections officially opens on Thursday, March 14, when Stefanos Kasselakis is scheduled to present the complete party proposal, before the preliminary procedures for the preparation of the ballot paper follow. His speech at the Greater Hellenic Foundation is expected with particular interest, because he will reveal his own intentions/ambitions – that is, if he intends to enter this battle as a candidate – as some speculate.
The fact that on Sunday (10/3) elections have been scheduled for the Prefectural Committees and the coordinating bodies of the Member Organizations mainly concerns an exclusively internal issue of presidential sovereignty that will be completed on the same day. As it was already seen at the Congress, the president of the party has a very strong “fan club” that supports him wholeheartedly. He will then look to confirm this dynamic throughout the territory so that he can gradually take under his control and much more central organs (Central Committee) having already strengthened the Executive Office with persons of his influence.
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